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With the release of January 2024 data on February 2, 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments.
The March 2023 benchmarked, seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm employment is 155,206,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 154,253,000.
Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2023, total nonfarm employment had a revision of −266,000 or −0.2 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by −187,000 or −0.1 percent.
Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January 2023 through December 2023. The revised data for April 2023 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts. For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see Benchmark in the Calculations section of the CES Handbook of Methods.
2023 | Levels | Over-the-month Changes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As Revised | As Previously Published | Difference | As Revised | As Previously Published | Difference | |
January |
154,773 | 155,007 | -234 | 482 | 472 | 10 |
February |
155,060 | 155,255 | -195 | 287 | 248 | 39 |
March |
155,206 | 155,472 | -266 | 146 | 217 | -71 |
April |
155,484 | 155,689 | -205 | 278 | 217 | 61 |
May |
155,787 | 155,970 | -183 | 303 | 281 | 22 |
June |
156,027 | 156,075 | -48 | 240 | 105 | 135 |
July |
156,211 | 156,311 | -100 | 184 | 236 | -52 |
August |
156,421 | 156,476 | -55 | 210 | 165 | 45 |
September |
156,667 | 156,738 | -71 | 246 | 262 | -16 |
October |
156,832 | 156,843 | -11 | 165 | 105 | 60 |
November |
157,014 | 157,016 | -2 | 182 | 173 | 9 |
December(p) |
157,347 | 157,232 | 115 | 333 | 216 | 117 |
Footnotes |
Establishment survey benchmarking is done each year to align employment estimates from the survey with employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. The UI data are obtained and edited by each state�s Labor Market Information agency. They are tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). About 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is covered by UI and is available to the CES program via QCEW records.
An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from other sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board and U.S. Census Bureau data from County Business Patterns and the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. This 3 percent is referred to as noncovered employment. The combination of QCEW and noncovered employment data make up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.
The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark revision—as is the case for this year�s benchmark revision. However, in years with historical reconstructions, affected CES series are re-estimated prior to benchmarking. The benchmark revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark level and the newly reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision is the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.
To create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and historical sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure. This procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the 9 months following the March benchmark (also called the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birth-death model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in Benchmark in the Calculation section of the CES Handbook of Methods.
BLS seasonally adjusts 5 years of CES data with each annual benchmark for all industries and directly estimated data types. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their revised time spans if the revised timespan is greater than 5 years. More information about seasonal adjustment of CES series is available on the CES Seasonal Adjustment webpage.
Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2023 by major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −266,000.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | As Revised | As Previously Published | Differences | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amount | Percent | ||||
00-000000 | Total nonfarm | 155,206 | 155,472 | -266 | -0.2 |
05-000000 | Total private | 132,600 | 132,907 | -307 | -0.2 |
06-000000 | Goods-producing | 21,508 | 21,501 | 7 | (1) |
07-000000 | Service-providing | 133,698 | 133,971 | -273 | -0.2 |
08-000000 | Private service-providing | 111,092 | 111,406 | -314 | -0.3 |
10-000000 | Mining and logging | 635 | 635 | 0 | (1) |
20-000000 | Construction | 7,941 | 7,890 | 51 | 0.6 |
30-000000 | Manufacturing | 12,932 | 12,976 | -44 | -0.3 |
31-000000 | Durable goods | 8,074 | 8,092 | -18 | -0.2 |
32-000000 | Nondurable goods | 4,858 | 4,884 | -26 | -0.5 |
40-000000 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 28,819 | 28,867 | -48 | -0.2 |
41-420000 | Wholesale trade | 6,096.2 | 6,047.9 | 48.3 | 0.8 |
42-000000 | Retail trade | 15,579.6 | 15,529.2 | 50.4 | 0.3 |
43-000000 | Transportation and warehousing | 6,571.9 | 6,735.1 | -163.2 | -2.5 |
44-220000 | Utilities | 571.6 | 554.3 | 17.3 | 3 |
50-000000 | Information | 3,054 | 3,092 | -38 | -1.2 |
55-000000 | Financial activities | 9,150 | 9,095 | 55 | 0.6 |
60-000000 | Professional and business services | 22,797 | 22,924 | -127 | -0.6 |
65-000000 | Private education and health services | 25,030 | 25,072 | -42 | -0.2 |
70-000000 | Leisure and hospitality | 16,447 | 16,518 | -71 | -0.4 |
80-000000 | Other services | 5,795 | 5,838 | -43 | -0.7 |
90-000000 | Government | 22,606 | 22,565 | 41 | 0.2 |
Footnotes
(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent. |
Benchmark employment levels for March are compared to CES estimates that have not been seasonally adjusted to calculate the new March employment level. Twenty-one months of not seasonally adjusted CES estimates for all data types are revised based on this new March level, prior to seasonal adjustment. Revisions to not seasonally adjusted CES estimates are described below.
Table 3 presents the not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for March 2023 by major industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −187,000.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Benchmark | Estimate | Differences | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amount | Percent | ||||
00-000000 | Total nonfarm | 154,253 | 154,440 | -187 | -0.1 |
05-000000 | Total private | 131,367 | 131,616 | -249 | -0.2 |
06-000000 | Goods-producing | 21,218 | 21,218 | (1) | (1) |
07-000000 | Service-providing | 133,035 | 133,222 | -187 | -0.1 |
08-000000 | Private service-providing | 110,149 | 110,398 | -249 | -0.2 |
10-000000 | Mining and logging | 628 | 628 | (1) | (1) |
20-000000 | Construction | 7,701 | 7,657 | 44 | 0.6 |
30-000000 | Manufacturing | 12,889 | 12,933 | -44 | -0.3 |
31-000000 | Durable goods | 8,054 | 8,077 | -23 | -0.3 |
32-000000 | Nondurable goods | 4,835 | 4,856 | -21 | -0.4 |
40-000000 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 28,553 | 28,588 | -35 | -0.1 |
41-420000 | Wholesale trade | 6,072.1 | 6,022.3 | 49.8 | 0.8 |
42-000000 | Retail trade | 15,390.8 | 15,348.2 | 42.6 | 0.3 |
43-000000 | Transportation and warehousing | 6,519.4 | 6,664.5 | -145.1 | -2.2 |
44-220000 | Utilities | 570.4 | 552.9 | 17.5 | 3.1 |
50-000000 | Information | 3,036 | 3,072 | -36 | -1.2 |
55-000000 | Financial activities | 9,094 | 9,039 | 55 | 0.6 |
60-000000 | Professional and business services | 22,552 | 22,665 | -113 | -0.5 |
65-000000 | Private education and health services | 25,133 | 25,179 | -46 | -0.2 |
70-000000 | Leisure and hospitality | 16,031 | 16,060 | -29 | -0.2 |
80-000000 | Other services | 5,750 | 5,795 | -45 | -0.8 |
90-000000 | Government | 22,886 | 22,824 | 62 | 0.3 |
Footnotes
(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent. |
Benchmarks for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables webpage.
Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total nonfarm level has averaged 0.1 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of −0.3 percent to 0.3 percent.
The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Type | 2013(1) | 2014 | 2015(2) | 2016 | 2017(3) | 2018(4) | 2019(5) | 2020 | 2021 | 2022(6) | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00-000000 |
Total nonfarm | Percent | -0.1 | (7) | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | (7) | -0.3 | -0.1 | (7) | 0.3 | -0.1 |
Level | -119 | 67 | -172 | -81 | 135 | -16 | -489 | -121 | -7 | 506 | -187 | ||
05-000000 |
Total private | Percent | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
Level | -126 | 105 | -232 | -151 | 133 | -104 | -505 | -184 | -256 | 607 | -249 | ||
10-000000 |
Mining and logging | Percent | -1.2 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -3.2 | -4.6 | -1.1 | -2.1 | -4 | -11.5 | -3.1 | (7) |
Level | -10 | -16 | -19 | -22 | -30 | -8 | -15 | -27 | -63 | -18 | (7) | ||
20-000000 |
Construction | Percent | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Level | 14 | 90 | 39 | 47 | 52 | 44 | -4 | 2 | -41 | 70 | 44 | ||
30-000000 |
Manufacturing | Percent | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.6 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -0.3 |
Level | 23 | 43 | -12 | 58 | 15 | -18 | -4 | -75 | -42 | 22 | -44 | ||
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities | Percent | -0.5 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
Level | -131 | -31 | -5 | -110 | 75 | -77 | -117 | 24 | 307 | 32 | -35 | ||
41-420000(8) |
Wholesale trade | Percent | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
Level | -20.2 | -45.4 | -41.3 | -66.6 | -21.2 | -54.4 | -38.6 | -48 | -23.6 | 101.1 | 49.8 | ||
42-000000(8) |
Retail trade | Percent | -0.8 | (7) | -0.2 | -0.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -1 | -0.5 | 0.4 | -1.6 | 0.3 |
Level | -110.3 | 5.5 | -23.5 | -118.2 | 15.4 | -96.4 | -150.8 | -78.3 | 57.9 | -252.2 | 42.6 | ||
43-000000(8) |
Transportation and warehousing | Percent | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 2.6 | -2.2 |
Level | 3.6 | 9.7 | 65.3 | 83.5 | 79.8 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 148.9 | 270.1 | 170.1 | -145.1 | ||
44-220000(8) |
Utilities | Percent | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
Level | -4.6 | -0.6 | -4.7 | -8.7 | 1 | 1.8 | -4.1 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 13.3 | 17.5 | ||
50-000000 |
Information | Percent | -0.2 | 2.4 | -1.6 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 3 | 2.7 | -1.2 |
Level | -5 | 66 | -44 | -2 | 70 | 59 | 35 | 14 | 84 | 80 | -36 | ||
55-000000 |
Financial activities | Percent | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | (7) | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
Level | -10 | 19 | -9 | -4 | 7 | -12 | 68 | 25 | -64 | 94 | 55 | ||
60-000000 |
Professional and business services | Percent | (7) | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.6 | 1 | 1 | -0.5 |
Level | 4 | -147 | -110 | -125 | -270 | -72 | -159 | -123 | 218 | 230 | -113 | ||
65-000000 |
Private education and health services | Percent | -0.3 | -0.1 | (7) | -0.4 | 0.3 | (7) | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
Level | -61 | -16 | -7 | -83 | 70 | 5 | -95 | -47 | 125 | -69 | -46 | ||
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality | Percent | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | (7) | -1.1 | 0.2 | -4.4 | 1.1 | -0.2 |
Level | 72 | 38 | -45 | 102 | 126 | -4 | -170 | 31 | -572 | 161 | -29 | ||
80-000000 |
Other services | Percent | -0.4 | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -3.9 | 0.1 | -0.8 |
Level | -22 | 59 | -20 | -12 | 18 | -21 | -44 | -8 | -208 | 5 | -45 | ||
90-000000 |
Government | Percent | (7) | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | (7) | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | -0.5 | 0.3 |
Level | 7 | -38 | 60 | 70 | 2 | 88 | 16 | 63 | 249 | -101 | 62 | ||
Footnotes: |
Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more information on indirectly estimated data types, see Derivative data in the Calculations section of the CES Handbook of Methods.
Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.
Data Type | Abbreviation |
---|---|
All employees | AE |
Production and nonsupervisory employees | PE |
Women employees | WE |
Average weekly hours of all employees | AE AWH |
Average hourly earnings of all employees | AE AHE |
Average weekly overtime hours of all employees | AE AWOH |
Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AWH |
Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AHE |
Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AWOH |
The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.
Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their broader group.
Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2023 benchmark. At the total private level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for AE and PE from the previously published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 10 cents for AE and 9 cents for PE from the previously published level.
Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables webpage.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Average Weekly Hours | Average Hourly Earnings | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated | Revised | Difference | Estimated | Revised | Difference | ||
05-000000 |
Total private |
34.2 | 34.2 | 0.0 | $33.15 | $33.26 | $0.11 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
39.8 | 39.8 | 0.0 | 33.4 | 33.41 | 0.01 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
33.1 | 33.1 | 0.0 | 33.09 | 33.22 | 0.13 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
45.5 | 45.5 | 0.0 | 37.27 | 37.27 | 0.0 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
38.5 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 35.88 | 35.89 | 0.01 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
40.3 | 40.2 | -0.1 | 31.78 | 31.78 | 0.0 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
40.8 | 40.8 | 0.0 | 33.27 | 33.28 | 0.01 |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
39.4 | 39.4 | 0.0 | 29.21 | 29.2 | -0.01 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
33.6 | 33.6 | 0.0 | 28.56 | 28.63 | 0.07 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
38.5 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 36.2 | 36.16 | -0.04 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
29.7 | 29.7 | 0.0 | 23.64 | 23.64 | 0.0 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
37.6 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 28.47 | 28.69 | 0.22 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
42.4 | 42.4 | 0.0 | 49.57 | 49.64 | 0.07 |
50-000000 |
Information |
35.9 | 36.1 | 0.2 | 47.76 | 47.91 | 0.15 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
37.2 | 37.2 | 0.0 | 42.68 | 42.65 | -0.03 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
36.2 | 36.2 | 0.0 | 39.89 | 39.96 | 0.07 |
65-000000 |
Private education and health services |
33.2 | 33.2 | 0.0 | 32.56 | 32.83 | 0.27 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
25.4 | 25.4 | 0.0 | 20.93 | 20.96 | 0.03 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
32.2 | 32.1 | -0.1 | 29.63 | 30.19 | 0.56 |
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Average Weekly Hours | Average Hourly Earnings | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated | Revised | Difference | Estimated | Revised | Difference | ||
05-000000 |
Total private |
33.6 | 33.6 | 0.0 | $28.47 | $28.56 | $0.09 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
40.2 | 40.2 | 0.0 | 28.92 | 28.94 | 0.02 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
32.5 | 32.5 | 0.0 | 28.38 | 28.48 | 0.1 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
47.8 | 47.8 | 0.0 | 33.66 | 33.67 | 0.01 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
39.0 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 33.53 | 33.54 | 0.01 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
40.6 | 40.6 | 0.0 | 25.91 | 25.91 | 0.0 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
40.9 | 40.9 | 0.0 | 27.04 | 27.02 | -0.02 |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
40.2 | 40.2 | 0.0 | 24.07 | 24.08 | 0.01 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
33.6 | 33.6 | 0.0 | 24.85 | 24.9 | 0.05 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
38.5 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 29.96 | 29.94 | -0.02 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
30.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 20.26 | 20.27 | 0.01 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
37.1 | 37.1 | 0.0 | 27.2 | 27.38 | 0.18 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
42.6 | 42.6 | 0.0 | 43.77 | 43.78 | 0.01 |
50-000000 |
Information |
35.6 | 35.7 | 0.1 | 38.76 | 38.92 | 0.16 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
36.9 | 36.9 | 0.0 | 33.44 | 33.41 | -0.03 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
36.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 33.78 | 33.81 | 0.03 |
65-000000 |
Private education and health services |
32.5 | 32.4 | -0.1 | 29.7 | 29.96 | 0.26 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
24.1 | 24.1 | 0.0 | 18.5 | 18.5 | 0.0 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
31.1 | 31.1 | 0.0 | 25.4 | 25.94 | 0.54 |
The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various sources. Disaggregating it into its components is complex. Both data sources are subject to nonresponse and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error and business birth and death modeling error.
The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level because each month, new establishments generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the establishments, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new establishments until they are at least a year old.
BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring employment from business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model incorporates two components. The first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths. The second component is an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in Business births and deaths in the Calculation section of the CES Handbook of Methods.
An analysis of error in the birth-death model and the effect of those errors on CES estimation follows.
Only error from the model-based component of CES estimation is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates during the previous benchmark year. Most recently, the data from April 2022 to March 2023 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual net birth-death from April 2022 to March 2023 was approximately 330,000 below the forecast used in the CES monthly estimates for the same period.
Benchmark 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | Total | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | ||
Actual Net Birth-Death |
455 | 202 | 50 | 236 | 89 | -74 | 311 | 1 | -32 | -192 | 117 | -31 | 1,132 |
Forecast Net Birth-Death |
323 | 254 | 93 | 327 | 120 | -153 | 511 | 21 | -37 | -144 | 176 | -29 | 1,462 |
Difference |
132 | -52 | -43 | -91 | -31 | 79 | -200 | -20 | 5 | -48 | -59 | -2 | -330 |
Cumulative Difference |
132 | 80 | 37 | -54 | -85 | -6 | -206 | -226 | -221 | -269 | -328 | -330 |
From April 2023 to December 2023, also called the post-benchmark period, CES estimates were recalculated for each month based primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2023 to December 2023, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 1,356,000 jobs, compared with 1,263,000 in the previously published April 2023 to December 2023 employment estimates.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Cumulative Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
41 | 36 | 21 | 12 | 11 | -2 | 27 | -10 | -17 | 119 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
3 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 36 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
17 | 29 | 10 | 36 | 21 | 2 | 74 | 17 | 6 | 212 |
41-420000(1) |
Wholesale trade |
-2 | 6 | -4 | 5 | 2 | -7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
42-000000(1) |
Retail trade |
16 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 34 | 2 | -1 | 109 |
43-000000(1) |
Transportation and warehousing |
3 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 85 |
44-220000(1) |
Utilities |
0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
50-000000 |
Information |
10 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 40 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
14 | 4 | -3 | 14 | 3 | -11 | 38 | 1 | 10 | 70 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
126 | 41 | -19 | 92 | 19 | -32 | 134 | 7 | -26 | 342 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
43 | 21 | -24 | 43 | 19 | -21 | 89 | 12 | -15 | 167 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
96 | 88 | 84 | 81 | 21 | -45 | 24 | -26 | -13 | 310 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
18 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 20 | 0 | -5 | 55 |
Total private net birth-death forecast |
368 | 244 | 81 | 295 | 110 | -117 | 425 | 7 | -57 | 1,356 | |
Footnotes |
With the release of the January 2024 first preliminary estimates on February 2, 2024, BLS incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.
All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES industries, which are based on NAICS 2022. Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available on the Notice of Publication Changes webpage.
In addition to the annual sample review, CES series are sometimes reconstructed to avoid series breaks and to provide users with comparable time series suitable for economic analysis. Reconstructed basic series are summed to aggregate levels using the normal CES aggregation methods (see the Aggregation procedures section in the CES Handbook of Methods), and, consequently, unadjusted aggregate employment series are subject to change from the detailed aggregate series to summary level aggregates within each the major industry sector. Hours and earnings series are subject to change from summary levels to major industry sector levels. Aggregate industries as well as component series used in indirect seasonal adjustment are also subject to change.
A list of currently published CES series is available on the CES Published Series webpage.
NAICS Code | Previous | New | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | |
33991,2 |
31-339910 | Jewelry and silverware manufacturing | 31-339920 | Jewelry, silverware, and sporting and athletic goods manufacturing |
33991,2 |
31-339920 | Sporting and athletic goods manufacturing | ||
32511,2,3,8 |
32-325130 | Petrochemical, industrial gas, synthetic dye, and pigment manufacturing | 32-325180 | Petrochemical, industrial gas, synthetic dye, pigment, and other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing |
32511,2,3,8 |
32-325180 | Other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing | ||
711212,9 |
70-711212 | Racetracks | 70-711219 | Racetracks and other spectator sports |
711212,9 |
70-711219 | Other spectator sports | ||
To identify affected series more easily and because AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown separately for AE and non-AE data types. The first two tables in this section reference collapsed and discontinued series for AE only. The third table references discontinued series for all non-AE data types. Discontinued series tables (table 11 and table 13) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published. The collapsed series table (table 12) displays series for which the data types noted are published at a more aggregate level because the more detailed industry no longer has sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industries that are no longer published for AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series.
NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Next Highest Published Industry |
---|---|---|---|
327211,2 |
31-327212 | Flat and other pressed and blown glass and glassware manufacturing | Glass and glass product manufacturing (31-327200) |
327213,5 |
31-327215 | Glass product made of purchased glass and glass container manufacturing | Glass and glass product manufacturing (31-327200) |
336211 |
31-336211 | Motor vehicle body manufacturing | Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing (31-336200) |
336212,3,4 |
31-336214 | Truck trailer, motor home, travel trailer, and camper manufacturing | Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing (31-336200) |
326113 |
32-326113 | Unlaminated plastics film and sheet, except packaging, manufacturing | Plastics packaging materials and unlaminated film and sheet manufacturing (32-326110) |
48531 |
43-485310 | Taxi and ridesharing services | Taxi and limousine service (43-485300) |
48532 |
43-485320 | Limousine service | Taxi and limousine service (43-485300) |
48831,3,9 |
43-488390 | Port and harbor operations, navigational services to shipping, and other support activities for water transportation | Support activities for water transportation (43-488300) |
Previous | New | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title |
33991 |
31-339910 | Jewelry and silverware manufacturing | 33991,2 | 31-339920 | Jewelry, silverware, and sporting and athletic goods manufacturing |
33992 |
31-339920 | Sporting and athletic goods manufacturing | |||
32511,2,3 |
32-325130 | Petrochemical, industrial gas, synthetic dye, and pigment manufacturing | 32511,2,3,8 | 32-325180 | Petrochemical, industrial gas, synthetic dye, pigment, and other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing |
32518 |
32-325180 | Other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing | |||
711212 |
70-711212 | Racetracks | 711212,9 | 70-711219 | Racetracks and other spectator sports |
711219 |
70-711219 | Other spectator sports | |||
NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Discontinued From Publication | Next Highest Published Industry |
---|---|---|---|---|
23834 |
20-238340 | Tile and terrazzo contractors | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Building finishing contractors (20-238300) |
23839 |
20-238390 | Other building finishing contractors | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Building finishing contractors (20-238300) |
3212 |
31-321200 | Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood product manufacturing | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Wood product manufacturing (31-321000) |
3219 |
31-321900 | Other wood product manufacturing | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH | Wood product manufacturing (31-321000) |
3321 |
31-332100 | Forging and stamping | PE AWOH | Fabricated metal product manufacturing (31-332000) |
33271 |
31-332710 | Machine shops | PE AWOH | Machine shops; turned product; and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing (31-332700) |
33272 |
31-332720 | Turned product and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing | PE AWOH | Machine shops; turned product; and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing (31-332700) |
332811,2 |
31-332812 | Metal heat treating, coating, engraving (except jewelry and silverware), and allied services to manufacturers | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH | Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied activities (31-332800) |
332813 |
31-332813 | Electroplating, plating, polishing, anodizing, and coloring | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH | Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied activities (31-332800) |
3334 |
31-333400 | Ventilation, heating, air-conditioning, and commercial refrigeration equipment manufacturing | AE AWOH | Machinery manufacturing (31-333000) |
3336 |
31-333600 | Engine, turbine, and power transmission equipment manufacturing | PE AWOH | Machinery manufacturing (31-333000) |
3339 |
31-333900 | Other general purpose machinery manufacturing | AE AWOH | Machinery manufacturing (31-333000) |
334416,7,9 |
31-334419 | Capacitor, resistor, coil, transformer, other inductor, electronic connector, and other electronic component manufacturing | PE AWOH | Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing (31-334400) |
311615 |
32-311615 | Poultry processing | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, AE AWOH, PE AWOH | Animal slaughtering and processing (32-311600) |
31181 |
32-311810 | Bread and bakery product manufacturing | AE AWH, AE AHE, WE | Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800) |
311811 |
32-311811 | Retail bakeries | AE AWH, AE AHE, WE | Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800) |
31182,3 |
32-311830 | Cookie, cracker, pasta, and tortilla manufacturing | AE AWH, AE AHE, WE | Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800) |
315 |
32-315000 | Apparel manufacturing | PE AWOH | Nondurable goods (32-000000) |
3251 |
32-325100 | Basic chemical manufacturing | PE AWOH | Chemical manufacturing (32-325000) |
3252 |
32-325200 | Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial and synthetic fibers and filaments manufacturing | WE | Chemical manufacturing (32-325000) |
3256 |
32-325600 | Soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparation manufacturing | AE AWOH, PE AWOH | Chemical manufacturing (32-325000) |
32614,5 |
32-326150 | Polystyrene, urethane, and other foam product manufacturing | AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE, AE AWOH | Plastics product manufacturing (32-326100) |
42332 |
41-423320 | Brick, stone, and related construction material merchant wholesalers | AE AWH, AE AHE | Lumber and other construction materials merchant wholesalers (41-423300) |
42333,9 |
41-423390 | Roofing, siding, insulation, and other construction material merchant wholesalers | AE AWH, AE AHE | Lumber and other construction materials merchant wholesalers (41-423300) |
42342 |
41-423420 | Office equipment merchant wholesalers | AE AWH, AE AHE | Professional and commercial equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (41-423400) |
42341,4,6,9 |
41-423490 | Ophthalmic goods and photographic, commercial, and professional equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers | AE AWH, AE AHE | Professional and commercial equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (41-423400) |
42394 |
41-423940 | Jewelry, watch, precious stone, and precious metal merchant wholesalers | AE AWH, AE AHE | Miscellaneous durable goods merchant wholesalers (41-423900) |
42392,9 |
41-423990 | Toy and hobby goods and supplies and other miscellaneous durable goods merchant wholesalers | AE AWH, AE AHE | Miscellaneous durable goods merchant wholesalers (41-423900) |
42411,2 |
41-424120 | Printing and writing paper, stationery, and office supplies merchant wholesalers | WE | Paper and paper product merchant wholesalers (41-424100) |
42413 |
41-424130 | Industrial and personal service paper merchant wholesalers | WE | Paper and paper product merchant wholesalers (41-424100) |
4242 |
41-424200 | Drugs and druggists' sundries merchant wholesalers | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods (41-424000) |
4245 |
41-424500 | Farm product raw material merchant wholesalers | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods (41-424000) |
53241 |
55-532410 | Construction, transportation, mining, and forestry machinery and equipment rental and leasing | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing (55-532400) |
53242,9 |
55-532490 | Office, commercial, and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing (55-532400) |
56174 |
60-561740 | Carpet and upholstery cleaning services | AE AWH, AE AHE | Services to buildings and dwellings (60-561700) |
56179 |
60-561790 | Other services to buildings and dwellings | AE AWH, AE AHE | Services to buildings and dwellings (60-561700) |
71395 |
70-713950 | Bowling centers | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries (70-713000) |
81231 |
80-812310 | Coin-operated laundries and drycleaners | AE AWH, AE AHE | Drycleaning and laundry services (80-812300) |
81233 |
80-812330 | Linen and uniform supply | AE AWH, AE AHE | Drycleaning and laundry services (80-812300) |
LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed from the CES National Databases webpage.
Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data Information webpage. CES vintage data are typically updated in early March following the annual benchmark revision.
Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at the CES detailed industry tables webpage.
Last Modified Date: February 2, 2024