NBA Draft 2024: Breaking down the Top 5 prospects with YODA

Over the past couple weeks, we’ve taken a preliminary spin through Ye Olde Draft Analyzer’s (YODA for short) view of the upcoming NBA Draft. The TLDR: several good guard prospects, a few intriguing centers, and not many impressive wings or forwards.

Today, I’m going to run Tankathon’s consensus Big Board top five through the YODA version of the statistical doppelgänger machine. These comps are mainly for fun, though it is sometimes useful to separate a player’s name and how he looks from the evaluation. By using statistical production as the basis for comparison, we may be able to move beyond the silly-season habit of intra-racial comps.

No, that 6-8 white guy isn’t the next Larry Bird. Or Dirk Nowitzki. But maybe he could be the next Harvey Grant?

The stat comparison process uses box score stats (per minute), age, and YODA score. It includes no direct comparison for position or size. This yields sometimes interesting results, such as when a bigger players comps include mostly guards, or a smaller player’s include forwards or bigs.

Here we go:

Zaccarie Risacher — Tall wing with short arms (for an NBA player), who performed poorly in combine athletic tests. The eyeball scouts love him. YODA was not impressed.

1. Keon Johnson — The 21st overall pick in 2021, Johnson has had a nondescript NBA career.
2. Hamidou Diallo — A second round pick (45th overall) in 2018, Diallo has yet to stick with an NBA team. Last season, he had a two-game stint with the Wizards.
3. Jordan Hamilton — Selected 26th overall, Hamilton played in bits and pieces of five NBA seasons for four different teams.
4. Isaiah Todd — A second round pick by the Wizards who never panned out.
5. Dariq Whitehead — The 6-7 wing was the 22nd overall pick in last year’s draft. He appeared in just two games before undergoing season-ending shin surgery.

According to the doppelgänger machine, Risacher doesn’t get a solid NBA player as a comp until Dorian Finney-Smith...who’s around 30 deep on the list and has a “not all that similar” score. Others in the same range as Finney-Smith include Patrick Williams (another highly-regarded/drafted prospect that YODA didn’t like), Chris Singleton, Perry Jones III,

Nikola Topic — Skilled guard with good height but short arms. Iffy shooting and iffier defense. He also has a partially torn ACL.

1. Trey Burke — Excellent collegiate guard who couldn’t quite figure out the NBA game.
2. Josh Jackson — Fourth overall pick in 2017 who was a bust. He was finished in the NBA at age 24.
3. D’Angelo Russell — Took some time to learn how to play effectively in the NBA but turned into a pretty good offensive player. The defense is still rough.
4. Jalen Brunson — Second round pick by the Dallas Mavericks...had a lottery grade in YODA. All-NBA level guard now with the New York Knicks.
5. Miles McBride — Second round pick who has become a solid backup guard with the Knicks.

Is it a little worrisome that Topic, hyped as a big guard, has three small guards, a guard who plays small, and a wing bust as his comps? Maybe. But the next group on the comp list include James Harden and LaMelo Ball.

Alexandre Sarr — Long and athletic big man who might be able to play forward if he can learn to shoot. Likely to contribute to a good defense for a long time.

1. Wendell Carter Jr. — Seventh overall selection in the 2018 draft, Carter struggled with his first team (Chicago Bulls) but found new life as a center for the Orlando Magic.
2. Jaren Jackson Jr. — Defensive Player of the Year despite rampant fouling and subpar rebounding.
3. Evan Mobley — Excellent defender, who was first team All-Defense in his second season and may one day win Defensive Player of the Year. His offensive game is probably better than the his offensive game’s reputation, though he’s not yet comfortable taking threes.
4. DeAndre Ayton — A former number one overall pick, Ayton’s been decent to good throughout his career. He’s also been relatively disliked by teammates and coaches.
5. Karl-Anthony Towns — Superb offensive forward/center type who’s been a deficient defender.

Reed Sheppard — One of the more fascinating players in the draft. He’s small but was highly productive in his year at Kentucky, and he tested well athletically. Will his lack of size inhibit his production at the NBA level, or is his production in college a signal that he’s good enough to produce in the NBA? It’s worth mention that none of these comps are super-close.

1. Scottie Barnes — Skilled, 6-7 wing/guard who appears to be the centerpiece of the Toronto Raptors rebuild. This is where stat comps get interesting. Barnes “outrebounded” the 6-2 Sheppard by 0.8 boards per 40 minutes. He out-assisted Sheppard by 0.4 per 40. Sheppard was +1.0 in steals per 40, and actually blocked more shots than Barnes (1.0 to 0.7). He also had a better assist-to-turnover ratio and fouled less.
2. Tyrese Haliburton — A bigger guard (well, taller anyway) who could really shoot (though not as well as Sheppard). Haliburton was a good playmaker in college, who blossomed into a great one in the NBA. He averaged 0.8 more assists per 40 than Sheppard.
3. Bilal Coulibaly — A bit of a drop in similarity at this point. Coulibaly rebounded a bit more and assisted less in pre-draft play. Sheppard shot better and produced more steals and blocks.
4. Victor Oladipo — More rebounding and fewer assists than Sheppard. I’d remembered Oladipo as a big-time scorer at Indiana, but the numbers show him to be efficient on offense with excellent three-point shooting. He was also a superb defender, though he averaged fewer steals (3.4 per 40 for Sheppard to 3.1 for Oladipo), and best Sheppard in blocks by 0.1 per 40.
5. Brandon Ingram — Light-rebounding wing/forward type who shot well on threes but struggled inside the arc...unlike Sheppard, who excelled from both areas of the floor.

Other names showing up in this same overall range as Ingram and Oladipo (sorta similar but with some key difference) include Mikal Bridges, Cade Cunningham, and Bradley Beal.

Stephon Castle — NBA draftniks are saying to disregard Castle’s meh production at Connecticut because he filled a role on a good team. They say to trust the “flashes.” They tout his size and athleticism, which I’m receptive to hearing since size and athleticism are literally built into YODA. At the combine, his size was adequate (but unexceptional for a guard), his agility times were about average, and his vertical was below average. What does that mean? Maybe nothing — while the above description sounds skeptical, he still grades as a top 6-10 pick in this draft, and a top 15ish pick in most drafts.

1. Troy Brown Jr. — Got up to about average one season in Washington before falling apart the following year. The former 15th overall pick (right about where he was rated in YODA) is bouncing around the league on minimum deals now.
2. Donte DiVincenczo — The former 17th overall pick has decent size, skills, and athleticism. I remain puzzled by the Milwaukee Bucks getting involved in a four-team trade that resulted in them trading DiVincenzo for the corpse of Serge Ibaka.
3. Justise Winslow — Talented player who the Boston Celtics desperately wanted. According to reports, they offered the Miami Heat four first round picks for the selection that would be Winslow, and were turned down. The Heat likely regretted that decision — Winslow was unproductive and often injured.
4. Terrence Jones — Talented forward who could never stay healthy.
5. Khris Middleton — Second round pick (39th overall), who became an All-Star, a one-time All-NBA player, and NBA champion.

Audience choice on the next article. Do you want to see the next five (or 10) from the Tankathon Consensus Big Board, or would you prefer to suggest names in the comments, and I can run some of those guys through the doppelgänger machine? Let me know in the comments.