Kamala Harris’ Odds Improve a Week After Igniting Her 2024 Presidential Bid

Posted on: July 31, 2024, 09:33h. 

Last updated on: July 31, 2024, 10:13h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

Vice President Kamala Harris is off to a strong start in her pursuit of becoming the 47th president of the United States.

Kamala Harris odds 2024 Donald Trump election
Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns for president in Atlanta on July 30, 2024. Harris’ 2024 odds continue to shorten since becoming the Democratic Party’s de facto nominee following President Joe Biden’s decision to not seek reelection. (Image: Getty)

A little more than a week after her boss, President Joe Biden, made the historic announcement that he would exit the race following numerous calls from Democratic leaders who grew increasingly concerned about the 81-year-old’s mental fitness, and endorsed his vice president for the 2024 election, Harris’ campaign is reporting robust financial support.

Her early campaign messaging is resonating with Democrats, and that’s prompted oddsmakers to shorten her November 4 odds. Political bettors on peer-to-peer exchanges have also shortened their liability on former President Donald Trump winning a second term in favor of putting some action on Harris, the 59-year-old former US senator from California.

2024 Odds Shorten in Harris’ Favor

William Hill, one of the largest bookmakers in the United Kingdom where betting on election outcomes is allowed — something not offered in any legal sports betting state in the US — the book has slashed Harris’ odds from +200 to +138 over the past 10 days. Her current line suggests implied odds of 42%, up from just 33%.

On political wagering exchanges, which continue to allow US-based bettors to participate, though the legality of such online platforms remains in question, Harris’ stock has climbed from 40 cents following the Biden exit to 49 cents today. Betting exchanges redeem shares at $1 each following an election’s fate being decided.

A new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that about eight in 10 Democrats are “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied” with Harris being the party’s nominee despite the fact she didn’t gain a single vote during the primary. The vice president is set to formally become her party’s nominee for president next month at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Before Biden’s exit, the same poll found that only four in 10 Democrats were at least somewhat satisfied with the president seeking another four-year term.

Trump’s odds have lengthened as Harris’ have shortened. After Biden’s dismal June debate, but before his withdrawal, the billionaire former casino owner’s overseas odds were as short as -225, or implied odds of nearly 70%. That line now stands at -175 or implied odds of 64%.

Political exchanges are even closer, with Trump’s shares trading around 53 cents. That’s down from 60 cents when Biden was still in the race.

Harris hasn’t picked a running mate yet, but is expected to name someone next week. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is the betting favorite at implied odds of about 65%.

Latest Polling

According to the RealClearPolitics poll average of recently published major polls, Trump maintains a two-point advantage over Harris.

In two of the three most recently unveiled polls, which came from Reuters/Ipsos and Morning Consult, Harris has a one-point lead. A Harvard-Harris poll conducted from July 26-28 put Trump up four points.  

Perhaps more important are the battleground states. Polls have those key outcomes split at this juncture, with Trump leading in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, but Harris up in Michigan and Nevada. Other critical races this November include Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, which are currently split, depending on the poll.