Welcome to the second annual "50 under-the-radar players who could shape the season." Wednesday marked 50 days until the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs face the Ravens to open the 2024 NFL season.
We had some big hits last year. Baker Mayfield, signed to a one-year deal and expected to be a bridge quarterback post-Tom Brady, led the Buccaneers to the playoffs (and a playoff win) and earned a three-year, $115-million deal in March. David Montgomery registered his fifth straight season with at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage and provided the thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs' lightning in Detroit's excellent run game. Michael Pittman Jr. broke out. Jaelan Phillips did, too, before a devastating Achilles injury. Stephon Gilmore was a big reason Dallas' defense remained terrific despite Trevon Diggs missing almost the entire season.
Of course, we had some misses, too. Jeff Okudah lost his starting job. Rashod Bateman and Kadarius Toney were mostly non-factors in Baltimore and Kansas City, respectively. Same with Chase Claypool in both Chicago and Miami.
That's the nature of the beast when trying to predict key under-the-radar players. They might be under the radar because they simply haven't done enough to get on the radar; that might never change. On the other hand, predicting key players who are already on the radar is pointless. We know Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson and Micah Parsons are going to be important. There's a sweet spot -- and a method -- to the madness. Maybe the player is assuming a bigger role. Maybe he's due for a bounce back. Maybe he plays a position who doesn't get much attention. Maybe he's joining a new team.
Whatever the case, here are 50 under-the-radar players, including at least one from each team, who could shape the 2024 season.
Quarterbacks
1. Jacoby Brissett, Patriots: While much of the attention is on No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye, Brissett was appointed the starter "for now," executive VP of player personnel Eliot Wolf said in late May. Maye possesses outstanding physical gifts, but may need time to adjust to the NFL. Brissett can provide that, perhaps better than people realize. Brissett was very effective as the Browns' starter in 2022 before Deshaun Watson returned and played well -- albeit in an tiny sample size -- last year with the Commanders. Over the past two seasons, Brissett has a higher expected points added per dropback than Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson.
2. Sam Darnold, Vikings: It's Darnold -- not 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy -- who enters training camp as the starter. Darnold is in a great ecosystem with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones, and coach Kevin O'Connell calling the shots. How well Darnold plays also could determine when (and, in turn, how well) McCarthy plays, making him a key player to watch, much like Brissett in New England.
3. Aidan O'Connell and 4. Gardner Minshew, Raiders: After a feel-good finish to last season, Raiders players wanted interim coach Antonio Pierce back full time. Like, really wanted him back. Maxx Crosby said he'd request a trade if it didn't happen. Now, Pierce is relying on O'Connell and Minshew to help him stick. O'Connell appeared in 11 games as a rookie last year; Minshew played decently (and even ended up as a Pro Bowler) after starting almost the entire season for the Colts following Anthony Richardson's injury. If either one can play decently and the Raiders' late-season defensive surge proves real, things could be heading in the right direction. If both quarterbacks struggle, though, the Raiders could be starting over at both quarterback and coach in six months. Both quarterbacks also made my 100 most important players in the 2024 season from 50 days ago.
Running backs
5. Jerome Ford, Browns: With Nick Chubb rehabbing from a major knee injury, Ford should once again play a significant role, at least early on, after being thrust into the spotlight as a rookie. Though Ford had nice moments, 27.5% of his rushes went for zero or negative yards, the highest rate in the league. Ford and Cleveland will hope for more down-to-down consistency this season.
6. Chuba Hubbard, Panthers: Among the many, many issues Panthers coaches had last season was sticking with Miles Sanders over (and even alongside) Hubbard. Sanders was one of the league's worst backs by any measure. Hubbard was far better and even somewhat explosive in an awful offensive ecosystem. With Jonathon Brooks on the mend from a torn ACL, Hubbard should start the season with a big role, something that would have benefited Carolina greatly last year.
7. James Conner, Cardinals: Conner missed the Pro Bowl despite over 1,200 yards from scrimmage, nine touchdowns scored and the NFL's fourth-highest rushing yards over expected per carry. When you're a running back on a bad team with a bad offense, it's hard to get proper recognition. At least that made him eligible for this list. With a better offense (and a full year of Kyler Murray) around him, Conner could build off his career year.
Wide receivers
8. Curtis Samuel, Bills: After losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, the Bills' passing game will likely be more by-committee this season, and Samuel could lead that committee. He reunites with Joe Brady, his former offensive coordinator in Carolina in 2020, when Samuel had career highs in yards receiving (851) and rushing (200). Samuel can play in the slot, out wide and, occasionally, in the backfield.
9. Malachi Corley, Jets: The Jets' wide receiver room behind Garrett Wilson is full of question marks. Is Mike Williams healthy, and can he stay that way? What's up with Allen Lazard? Corley has a great chance to make an impression early, perhaps even as the starting slot wide receiver. Corley is excellent after the catch, an element the Jets sorely need.
10. Darnell Mooney and 11. Rondale Moore, Falcons: Atlanta's two biggest wide receiver free agent signings couldn't be much more different, and the fact that they both make this list speaks volumes to Atlanta's limited depth at wide receiver. Mooney, primarily a deep threat, had a career-low 31 catches last season. Since entering the league in 2021, Moore has the fifth-highest yards after catch per reception in the NFL (min. 100 receptions), but he's pretty much exclusively an underneath option, and he has struggled mightily with injuries.
12. Marvin Mims Jr., Broncos: A bright spot amid a tough year for Denver, Mims made the Pro Bowl as a returner and was a big play waiting to happen on offense. Among the 106 wide receivers who caught at least 20 passes, Mims was sixth in yards per reception (17.1) and fourth in yards after the catch per reception (7.0). He'll be much more heavily featured this season.
13. Joshua Palmer, Chargers: Justin Herbert needs someone to throw to. Rookie Ladd McConkey is probably already on the radar, and Quentin Johnston's rough rookie year leaves him on the outside looking in. That leaves Palmer, who has shown flashes through three years but has mostly been behind Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler in the passing game pecking order. Palmer had a pair of 100-yard games last year, and his 9.5 yards per target led the team.
14. Wan'Dale Robinson and 15. Jalin Hyatt, Giants: The Giants selected Malik Nabers sixth overall, continuing to pour resources into wide receiver. Wan'Dale Robinson was a second-round pick two years ago, and Jalin Hyatt was a third-rounder just last year. Even if things go sideways for New York and Daniel Jones (who I considered too "on-the-radar" for this list), it would be nice to see Robinson and/or Hyatt emerge as legitimate young pieces. Robinson can do good things with the ball in his hands, but has missed a lot of time. Hyatt didn't do much as a rookie.
Tight ends
16. Pat Freiermuth, Steelers: After George Pickens, the Steelers' wide receiver depth chart is almost empty; not a single other wide receiver on the roster had more than 20 catches in the NFL last year. As such, Freiermuth could become the de facto No. 2 option in the passing game. Coming off an injury-plagued season, Freiermuth fits well with Russell Wilson's downfield passing approach; Freiermuth's 8.4 air yards per target in 2022 were third among all tight ends.
17. Luke Musgrave, Packers: The Packers' wide receiver room is crowded with talent and has several candidates for this list, but perhaps the tight end Musgrave is the best fit. Musgrave was Green Bay's top tight end from the get go and had solid debut, albeit one interrupted by injury. His 32 yards receiving per game may not seem like a lot, but they were the second most by any Packers tight end under Matt LaFleur. Musgrave is a big, natural pass catcher who can line up wherever and really run.
18. Juwan Johnson, Saints: Johnson took a leap in 2022, but he wasn't quite as effective in 2023. Still, there's reason to believe the speedy, strong vertical threat can help Derek Carr after Carr's up-and-down debut in the Big Easy. Outside of Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara, there's little proven pass-catching prowess on the New Orleans roster.
Offensive linemen
19. Morgan Moses (RT), Jets: The Jets focused on offensive line this offseason, signing Moses, Tyron Smith and John Simpson and drafting Olu Fashanu 11th overall. Neither Smith nor Fashanu qualify for "under the radar," but Moses does. Now 33, Moses has been generally solid but unspectacular, but he missed significant time last year. The Jets are hoping he avoids a repeat: New York used five players at right tackle last year.
20. Wanya Morris (LT), Chiefs: Protecting Patrick Mahomes' blind side is no small task, and this year, it seems like it will fall to Morris. He hardly played in his rookie season, but when he did play, it wasn't pretty: His 9% pressure rate allowed was 12th highest among 195 players who had at least 100 pass-blocking snaps. The Chiefs could yet sign a veteran -- last year's starter, Donovan Smith, is still available -- but for now, Morris is the guy.
21. Cam Jurgens (C), Eagles: It's rare when centers are among the most beloved and well-known players on the team, but Jason Kelce was exactly that for the Eagles. Jurgens replaces the future Hall of Famer after playing guard last year. Jurgens will also take on a key role in Philadelphia's trademark "Tush Push," a play Kelce perfected despite not exactly loving it.
22. Tyler Biadasz (C), Commanders: Dan Quinn brought several former Cowboys with him to the Commanders, but Biadasz has the chance to be the most impactful. Biadasz is dependable (16+ starts each of the last three seasons) and talented (2022 Pro Bowl), and he'll play a big role in No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels' development. While Washington's quarterback carousel gets the most attention, center (six different players in the past two seasons) has been a big issue, too.
23. Nicholas Petit-Frere (RT), Titans: Last year, the Titans signed Andre Dillard to a three-year deal, but he allowed 13 sacks -- most in the NFL -- and Tennessee ate nearly $8 million in dead cap to move on from him. In comes Petit-Frere, who struggled as a rookie and hardly played last year. The Titans have improved nearly all parts of Will Levis' supporting cast: Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd at receiver, Tony Pollard at running back, first-round pick JC Latham at left tackle and Lloyd Cushenberry III at center. Petit-Frere needs to hold down the right side to help Levis' development under new coach Brian Callahan.
24. Kenyon Green (LG), Texans: The Texans used six different left guards last year after Green suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the preseason. A 2022 first-round pick, Green struggled as a rookie, and Houston would have loved to see some development last year. Instead, he's essentially starting over. It's time for him to live up to his draft position.
25. Ikem Ekwonu (LT), Panthers: Ekwonu, the sixth overall pick in 2022, went from promising rookie two seasons ago to major disappointment in Carolina's disastrous 2023. His 22 sacks plus hits allowed tied for the league lead. The Panthers beefed up both guard spots this offseason to help protect Bryce Young, but Ekwonu needs to bounce back to complete the improved line.
Defensive linemen/EDGE
26. Mazi Smith (DT), Cowboys: Smith had a minimal impact as a rookie last year, but the Cowboys' 2023 first-rounder will have an elevated role this year. Smith was touted as a stout run defender, but Dallas was much better against the run without him on the field last year.
27. Foley Fatukasi (DT), Texans: Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins helped the Texans stop the run as well as any team last year. This year, Fatukasi is expected to fill that role with both Rankins and Collins gone. Fatukasi started his career with the Jets and played well, helping him get three years and $30 million from the Jaguars, but his production waned in Jacksonville.
28. Devonte Wyatt (DL), Packers: Wyatt jumped from 1.5 sacks as a rookie to 5.5 sacks in his second year, and his 11.8% pressure rate from defensive tackle was 10th at the position (min. 300 snaps) and ahead of much bigger names like Jeffery Simmons and Christian Wilkins.
29. Gervon Dexter Sr. (DT), Bears: Montez Sweat led the Bears with six sacks last season despite being a mid-season acquisition. Even with him around for this entire season, Chicago needs more from its other pass rushers, and this is where Dexter could step up after he showed progress throughout his rookie season. All 2.5 of his sacks came in December, and his pressure rate ticked up correspondingly down the stretch, too.
30. Marcus Davenport (EDGE), Lions: Davenport is the lone repeat selection from last year. After a nine-sack 2021, he had just a half-sack in 2022 and left New Orleans for Minnesota. In Minnesota, he had a sack in two of his first three games ... and then suffered a season-ending ankle injury. The Lions are his third team in as many years. Third time's the charm?
31. YaYa Diaby (EDGE) and 32. Calijah Kancey (DL), Buccaneers: Diaby is built like a superhero, and he started to play like one in the second half of his rookie year: 6.5 sacks from Week 9 onward. That was tied for 11th league-wide -- and was second among rookies -- over that span. Kancey, meanwhile, had four sacks. Diaby's 12 tackles for loss were most among rookies; Kancey's 10 were tied for second.
33. Leonard Floyd (EDGE) and 34. Maliek Collins (DT), 49ers: Floyd just keeps chugging along, with last year marking his fourth consecutive season with at least nine sacks and at least 18 quarterback hits. The only other players to do that each of the last four years are Myles Garrett, Brian Burns, Trey Hendrickson and DeForest Buckner, all of whom are very much on the radar. By a similar token, Collins just keeps plugging running lanes, a key asset for a 49ers team that actually struggled against the run (27th in success rate) last year.
Linebackers
35. Eric Kendricks, Cowboys: Much like the Cowboys' first name on this list, Kendricks hopes to be a salve to Dallas' rush defense woes. Since 2020, Kendricks' 286 run tackles are sixth in the NFL, and while he may not be the All-Pro he once was, Kendricks should help a unit that ranked dead last in success rate against the run in 2023.
36. Devin White, Eagles: White was a second-team All-Pro in 2020 and a Pro Bowler in 2021. How does he end up off the radar this quickly? White struggled particularly in coverage last year, allowing 11.1 yards per attempt as the primary defender. That ranked 31st out of 34 linebackers who played at least 400 coverage snaps. He also had just 2.5 sacks, tying his career low. Philadelphia is depending on him to anchor the second level of a new-look defense.
37. Jordyn Brooks, Dolphins: A 2020 first-round pick, Brooks showed flashes in Seattle but also battled injuries. Now, in the exact opposite corner of the country, he will step into a key role. Miami lost Christian Wilkins in free agency, and key pass rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are coming off significant injuries. The speedy Brooks showed some pass-rushing chops in a small sample last year: His 32.5% pressure rate was fifth in the NFL (min. 40 pass-rush snaps), and he had a career-high 4.5 sacks.
38. Jerome Baker, Seahawks: Baker and Brooks switched places this offseason, and it's not hard to see why new Seattle coach Mike Macdonald liked Baker's fit. Seahawks linebackers were among the league's worst in coverage last season. Baker, meanwhile, had two interceptions last year and has put up solid numbers in coverage over the last four seasons. His 6.3 yards per attempt allowed as the primary coverage defender ranks seventh among 48 linebackers with at least 1,000 coverage snaps played over that span. In stark contrast, Brooks, at 8.5, ranked last.
39. Trenton Simpson, Ravens: Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Queen left for the arch-rival Steelers this offseason, and Simpson will likely be his replacement. In fact, Queen endorsed Simpson earlier this offseason. A third-round pick last year, Simpson is regarded as an explosive athlete, and though he hardly played last season, playing next to Roquan Smith should help ease his adjustment.
Defensive backs
40. Vonn Bell (S) and 41. Geno Stone (S), Bengals: Dax Hill made this list last year and then shaped the season for all the wrong reasons. After Cincinnati moved on from Bell and Jessie Bates III, Hill was expected to step right in and display the traits that made him a 2022 first-rounder. Instead, he struggled in coverage, and the Bengals allowed the second-most completions of 20-plus yards (65) and the most net yards per attempt (7.6) in the NFL. Cincinnati knew it can't afford that again, so it brought back Bell and brought in Stone, who had seven interceptions and nine passes defended last year in a stunning emergence for Baltimore's dominant defense.
42. Martin Emerson (CB), Browns: Emerson is one of the best players you probably haven't heard of (unless you're a Browns fan or you follow the NFL extremely closely). In fact, he barely qualifies for this list, because he deserves to be on the radar. Over the last two years, Emerson has allowed just 45.8% of the passes thrown his direction to be completed, the best mark in the NFL. His 50.8 passer rating allowed as the primary defender over that span is 14th, ahead of more ballyhooed teammate Denzel Ward, Sauce Gardner and other top corners.
43. Ronald Darby (CB), Jaguars: Quietly, Darby has been excellent over the past two seasons, allowing just a 46.7% completion percentage when he's the primary coverage defender. The only two players who have been better are Emerson and Gardner, who is too good and too well known to be on this list. Darby hasn't picked off a pass since 2019, but he is very steady, and that's a boost for an up-and-down Jacksonville secondary.
44. Kendall Fuller (CB), Dolphins: The cornerback opposite Jalen Ramsey is always going to see lots of action, and this year, that role will fall to Fuller. Playing on an awful pass defense, Fuller allowed an 84.5 passer rating as the primary coverage defender last year, his second worst on record. The year before, though, on a much better pass defense, that number was 60.8.
45. Donte Jackson (CB), Steelers: Much like the wide receiver room, the Steelers' cornerback room is awfully thin after Joey Porter Jr., who played well as a rookie. Jackson wasn't Pittsburgh's biggest-name acquisition this offseason, but he will be a crucial one. Acquired in the Diontae Johnson trade, Jackson is speedy and has a nose for the ball, but he allowed an 86.2 passer rating when the primary target, 60th out of 71 primary coverage defenders targeted at least 70 times last season.
46. Jaylen Watson (CB) and 47. Joshua Williams (CB), Chiefs: The Chiefs' defensive excellence last year came about, thanks to outstanding drafting and coaching/development, especially in the secondary. By hitting on young players, Kansas City was able to pay Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones and others. But now L'Jarius Sneed -- perhaps Kansas City's best recent draft-and-develop success story at cornerback -- is gone, and Watson and Williams will step into big roles.
48. Tyrique Stevenson (CB), Bears: There's a lot to like about Stevenson's rookie year, like his four interceptions. There's also a lot to not like: His nine touchdowns allowed as the primary coverage defender were tied for most in the league, and his 836 yards passing allowed as the primary coverage defender were tied for third most. So it was a mixed bag, as many rookie seasons are, and the Bears will hope for more good and less bad in 2024.
49. Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB), Saints: Regarded as one of the most pro-ready corners in the draft, McKinstry ended up as the fifth defensive back off the board and joined a Saints team that badly needs cornerback help. Marshon Lattimore has played in just 17 games over the past two seasons. Paulson Adebo improved in 2023, but Alontae Taylor gave up 836 yards as the primary coverage defender, tied for third most in the NFL, and both gave up too many big plays. McKinstry should see the field sooner rather than later.
50. Kamren Curl (S), Rams: After having one of the youngest defenses -- and the cheapest defense -- last year, the Rams opened their checkbook for several veterans, especially in the secondary. Curl, a tackling machine, might be the best of the bunch. His 55 tackles against the run last year were tied for sixth most among defensive backs.
