SENECA COUNTY, Ohio -- Ohio soybean farmers in a pocket of Northwest Ohio say they're willing to gamble on the potential of big tariffs on their crops to achieve a better deal on trade with China.
China last week threatened tariffs on American soybeans in retaliation for tariffs proposed by the United States on Chinese goods. Chinese tariffs on soy would hit Ohio agriculture hard: A third of the Buckeye State's soybeans go to China, according to the Ohio Soybean Association. Soy is Ohio's top crop and number one export. Just the potential Chinese tariffs caused the soy market to lose $100 million in value for Ohio farmers in a day, though the market has largely recovered since the initial news, according to the Ohio Soy Association.
That's exactly why farmers in Seneca County aren't panicking -- they're looking at the long game. They view trade with China as unfair, and they want to correct that. These farmers view the threat of tariffs as leverage that will begin a meaningful discussion on trade between the United States and China. They believe President Donald Trump is trying to make trade with China more fair for Americans, and trust him at the negotiation table.
This rural, deep red county voted for Trump in a big way: the president handily won with 61.8 percent of the vote.
Ohio Matters is a series examining important national issues through the eyes of people living across the state.
They understand that their industry, their livelihoods are a bargaining chip. And if the Chinese tariffs hit tomorrow, these farmers would need to tighten their belts. But they don't think it's going to get to that point. They're not in love with the idea of their industry getting mixed up in trade disputes, but they believe the benefit exceeds the risk. These guys are used to managing risk, too.
"If this is the only way to catch their attention, sometimes you've got to dig your heel in and say enough is enough," 47-year old Bill Frankart, a farmer near Green Springs said of Trump's decision to threaten tariffs on China. "I think that's his way of trying to get things back to a more an even keel, so that way the trade isn't so lopsided. I think he's trying to catch their attention and say it's time to deal, and let's make something happen here."
A political game
Frankart doesn't believe it's an accident that the Chinese threatened to impose tariffs on crops like soybeans and pork. He believes the country is targeting Trump's political base.
"This is trying to get the Midwest people, the Trump supporters to get a little bit of civil unrest by putting proposed tariffs on soybeans and pork. It's a political thing," Frankart said. "It's a shame that people, the agriculture industry kind of is getting caught in that whirlwind a little bit with that."
He doesn't believe Ohio farmers are going to fall for it.
"I think most guys are going to see through that," Frankart said. "They see the big picture being lopsided trade, that's my opinion on that. People in my circle that I've talked to, we're all aware of what's going on."
He believes that it's important to keep trade open with China, and believes the country depends on the steady stream of soybeans from the United States.
"China's got a lot of people to feed. They've got a lot of livestock that needs the feed," Frankart said. "So somewhere along the line they might cut their nose off to spite their face."
He believes the threat of tariffs, on both sides, is a big talking standoff. He said it's important to look at the big picture, and realize that these negotiations have the potential to benefit American trade as a whole.
"If I was looking at it selfishly, as far as just an agricultural standpoint, yeah it is frustrating," Frankart said.
But he said at the macro level, it's part of a larger problem of a large trade deficit.
"If you take and compare a cargo load of soybeans, compared to a cargo load of steel coming in, there's a huge differential on price," Frankart said. "They're dumping on us and taking a little bit back."
Adam Kirian, who owns farmland in Seneca County and lives in Hancock County, also believes keeping the door open to Chinese trade is paramount.
"It's the largest population in the world," Kirian, 30, said. "It's by strict numbers obviously, we need that market just from the standpoint of they have the most consumers in the world, so that's a large market that you don't want to lose."
He doesn't believe these negotiations are going to cut off the United States from trade with China. Kirian said the Chinese tariffs have the potential to affect his business, but doesn't think it's likely that they, or the proposed American tariffs will go into effect. Kirian believes these threats are negotiation tactics to get a better deal on trade.
"I think that just like any kind of deal you shoot for a high number and see where you end up once you get involved in some kind of negotiation," he said.
And he believes these talks will be successful.
"I think it's good that the United States has proposed these tariffs as a way of, yes, getting the Chinese government to the bargaining table and coming up with some sort of understanding, that's going to make it... a more even playing field and a more fair way to do business, and something that I think in the long run is going to benefit the U.S. economy and the United States workforce," Kirian said.
Michael Scherger, 37, a farmer in Kansas, Ohio said something needs to be done to make trade with China more fair. He understands it could hurt him in the short term, a little bit. But he believes Trump is trying to achieve fairness with imports and exports. Tariffs, to him, are just another risk in the back of his head.
"To me it's just like a variable, just like the weather, in my opinion," he said.