COLUMBUS, Ohio -- We cap off our college football predictions for the 2019 football season end by predicting the regular-season record for the Ohio State. Here is how I see the Buckeyes’ 12-game season will play out in the first year of the Ryan Day era.
Stephen Means’ predicted record: 11-1
Predicted loss: At Nebraska
Explanation: Unless you’ve been under a rock for the past eight months, the storyline around the Buckeyes isn’t breaking news. At the helm, you have a first-year head coach — at any level — replacing one of the ten greatest ever to wear a whistle, a guy who lost nine games in six seasons and won seven straight games against Michigan. At quarterback, you have a first-year starter who didn’t even play in the Big Ten last season. Four new defensive assistant coaches trying to turn around what was an ugly 2018 by that side of the ball. You can even add an offensive line that returns one starter to the equation.
Despite all of that Ohio State starts the season rated No. 5 in the country.
For most teams, that many new parts would spell a season where things would take a step back as a program regroups. But most teams don’t have the talent in place that the Buckeyes do. Head coach Ryan Day has said it, the defense has said it, quarterback Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins have said it: This team has something to prove this season.
Fields is new and doesn’t have a ton of experience, but he’s still a five-star quarterback. Literally, the only person rated higher than him in the 2018 class was Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and we all saw what he did last season as a true freshman. Fields beat him out in the Elite 11 competition, which has to mean at least something. He may not be better than the future No. 1 NFL Draft pick, but he can at least compete with him.
Dobbins struggled last season. Some of that was because of the emphasis on Dwayne Haskins’ arm talent. But he’ll admit that some of that was of his own doing. He’s focused on getting back to playing at the level he was at in 2017, and the offense will need him to be there while Fields learns on the fly.
Defensively, players have acknowledged that there’s been a different energy around fall camp, and simplifying the scheme has helped with that. Chase Young is arguably the best defensive player in the Big Ten and Jeffrey Okudah is a potential first-round cornerback. There are plenty of starters back from last season, so the new coaching staff will prove whether 2018 was a talent issue or a scheme issue. This is one of the five best programs in college football, so it’s doubtful it was a talent issue.
Day is new to being a full-time head coach, but he isn’t new to how things operate at Ohio State, and he’s been wise to adopt the “if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it” philosophy in places where it’s necessary. He’s continuously leaned on the phrase “you don’t replace a legend,” and he shouldn’t have to. Meyer left the program in excellent shape when he handed the keys over, and at least this season all Day will have to do is keep the car moving.
All the new parts mean that they could drop a game early that will inevitably keep the Buckeyes out of the College Football Playoff. I believe that loss to a Nebraska team that knocked on the door last season will eventually set up a rematch in the Big Ten Championship.
Yes, their schedule is tough with five conference games against preseason Top 25 teams. But only two of those are road games and the second is against Michigan at the end of the year. By then things should be clicking and Fields should be at least showing glimpses of what 2020 will look like.
Ohio State lost its legendary coach, but he didn’t take everything that made the program great with him. This year Day keeps the train moving, next year he gets the Buckeyes back in the National Championship discussion.
OTHER PREVIEWS
• College Football Playoff predictions
• Big Ten Championship predictions
• Listen to more season predictions in our Buckeye Talk Podcast
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