COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Ohio State’s options have narrowed. The College Football Playoff field is nearly set. The teams that could be the Buckeyes’ opponent in a playoff semifinal are limited. But the way the matchups line up could still go several different ways depending on how the conference championships shake out this weekend.
Ohio State will play Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship on Saturday night at 8. The Buckeyes are in the playoff and very likely the No. 1 seed, in my opinion, with a win. They probably have a 98 percent chance of making the playoff even with a loss to Wisconsin.
What’s the only way Ohio State misses the playoff at this point? If all these things happen. But even in this case, I think the Buckeyes would be in:
• One-loss Georgia beats undefeated LSU in the SEC Championship in a close game that makes it clear that both teams must make the playoff. If LSU wins, Ohio State makes the playoff for sure, even with a loss. So this is a requirement, but it’s not hard to imagine.
• Undefeated Clemson wins the ACC Championship.
• Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship and looks awesome doing it. The one-loss Utes demand a playoff spot. Or one-loss Oklahoma blows out Baylor in the Big 12 Championship in a way that impresses the committee.
• Ohio State gets destroyed by Wisconsin and perhaps has something happen to a player that would carry over into the playoff. The committee would have to see the Buckeyes in a whole new light -- they wouldn’t just have a loss now, but they’d be almost a different team.
In that world, and only that world, the committee could take undefeated Clemson (1), one-loss SEC champ Georgia (2), one-loss SEC non-champ LSU (3) that barely lost to Georgia, and either Utah or Oklahoma (4) as a one-loss champ that finished strong. They’d leave out the Buckeyes, the best team all season, because they now had a loss and were no longer themselves.
So ... that’s the worst-case scenario. But that’s not going to happen.
Here’s what is going to happen ... Ohio State is getting in. I’m not going to even entertain a loss to Wisconsin any longer, because it seems so unlikely to me. So let’s imagine the team the Buckeyes might play in a semi.
• If Ohio State, LSU and Clemson all win in similar ways, I think they’ll be ranked in that order. The No. 1 Buckeyes would play the No. 4 seed, which I think would be Pac-12 champ Utah if the Utes beat Oregon impressively. If Utah loses, or if the Utes look iffy and Oklahoma beats up Baylor, then the Sooners could be No. 4. It Utah loses and Baylor beats Oklahoma, then the Bears will be No. 4. In all these scenarios, I believe Ohio State would play in Atlanta.
• If LSU beats Georgia convincingly and takes the No. 1 spot, then LSU would play that No. 4 seed in Atlanta. No. 2 Ohio State would play No. 3 Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.
• If Georgia beats LSU, I think the SEC is getting two teams in. Assuming Clemson wins, I think the final rankings would go Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, LSU. And the Buckeyes would play LSU in a semifinal, probably in Glendale.
The Buckeyes could play Utah, Oklahoma, Baylor, Clemson or LSU in a semifinal. They could be No. 1 or No. 2. And if they lose, they’d drop to No. 3 or No. 4 but probably still make it. So here’s my last round of bowl projections.
Dec. 28, Peach Bowl, Atlanta, College Football Playoff semifinal
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Utah
This remains the most likely scenario to me. However, the idea of Georgia beating LSU, setting up the Buckeyes vs. the Tigers in a Fiesta Bowl semifinal, is absolutely possible.
Dec. 28, Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz., College Football Playoff semifinal
No. 2 LSU vs. No. 3 Clemson
Again, Clemson is almost certainly the No. 3 seed.
Dec. 28, Cotton Bowl, Arlington, Texas
Memphis vs. Alabama
Who would be excited for this game? The Cotton Bowl for sure, which had Ohio State vs. USC two years ago and would love to get Alabama in Jerry World. Memphis beat Cincinnati on Saturday and now is hosting the Bearcats in a rematch in the American Athletic Conference Championship. Alabama is likely to land here and might be bored enough to lose to whatever non-power conference team it faces, which, if the Bearcats beat Memphis, will either be Cincinnati or Boise State.
Dec. 30, Orange Bowl, Miami, Florida
Virginia vs. Florida
Virginia beat Virginia Tech to earn a berth against Clemson in the ACC Championship and probably earn the ACC spot in this game with Clemson in the playoff. Florida is the highest-ranked team not playing in a conference title game and makes sense here.
Jan. 1, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.
Wisconsin vs. Oregon
The second-highest ranked Big Ten team will head here with the Buckeyes in the playoffs. The Badgers would have three losses, but two of them would be to Ohio State. Wisconsin beat two-loss Minnesota, which beat two-loss Penn State ... so it probably would be the Badgers. Oregon goes as the Pac-12 runner-up with Utah in the playoff.
Jan. 1, Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Oklahoma vs. Georgia
The Big 12 champ vs. the second choice from the SEC, which is no longer Alabama after the Tide suffered its second loss of the season, to Auburn.
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