Global Forecast Update

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Global Forecast Update

14 August 2024 / Brief

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Global Economy to Expand at Slightly Lower Rate in 2025

The Conference Board's real GDP forecast for the Global Economy was unchanged at 3.1% for 2024 but ticked down by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% for 2025. Our projections for several major economies have changed over the last month.

Cooler US Activity Near-term

US economic activity is poised to decelerate, but a recession remains unlikely. US real GDP grew at a robust 2.8% quarterly annualized rate in Q2 2024, but we continue to anticipate material slowing in the second half of this year. Consumers are losing momentum, and the labor market has downshifted from the heady post-pandemic days of outsized hiring. The anticipated weakness in economic activity notwithstanding, we do not project a recession and the 2024 annual growth rate likely will be a healthy 2.4% given the better-than-expected rise in Q2 GDP growth. Growth prospects should improve in 2025 as inflation converges to 2% and the Fed cuts interest rates, which we posit will start as soon as September 2024.

Softer Asian Economic Outlook

The outlook for Asian economies is softer given downgrades to projected real GDP growth in India, South Korea, and Indonesia. Forecasts for China and Japan re

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