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There was a noticeable amount of consternation surrounding the Astros’ catching situation last season, with plenty of it justifiable. It makes sense why those feelings were prevalent as Yainer Díaz was essentially designated as a third catcher with little playing time to start the season. Sure, his playing time did increase as the season wore on, minus the postseason. But for as much good as Dusty Baker did in his tenure with Houston, prioritizing Martín Maldonado at the rate he did over Díaz was arguably his biggest miscue.
The catcher situation for the Astros is now far different than it was a year ago when it wasn’t even certain if Díaz would make the team as the backup catcher. Entering camp this year, Díaz is now entrenched as the starter with Victor Caratini joining from outside the organization as his backup. According to FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections for 2024, the Astros are currently ranked 14th in catcher fWAR, accumulating 3.2 wins from Yainer Díaz and Victor Caratini. Even a middle-of-the-pack projection compared to last season with Maldonado as the starter is a noticeable upgrade.
With that said, I wouldn’t be shocked if Díaz and Caratini outperform their projections, even if ultimately by a fairly slim margin. Díaz’s bat, for example, is incredibly tantalizing, as evidenced by his 127 wRC+ in 2023. His power — 22 doubles and 23 home runs — in only 377 plate appearances proved as much. It’d be ideal if he could draw a few more walks as a 2.9% free pass rate feels a bit unsustainable for the long term in conjunction with a troublesome chase rate (44% last season). But better swing decisions are possibly part of the maturation process with Díaz and his power potential is a real boon in the middle of this lineup. The bat by itself represents a substantial improvement on that front.
Díaz’s ceiling hinges on whether he is an asset defensively. Compared to Maldonado last season, it stands within reason that Díaz is an upgrade on this front, as he graded out as the better catcher by framing, throwing, and blocking runs. The problem with a strict comparison between Díaz and Maldonado isn’t the upgrade itself, which is present, but how the former compares to the overall league-average catcher. After all, Maldonado was generally regarded, at least according to quantifiable metrics, as one of the worst catchers in baseball last season with a -16 fielding run value. Díaz finished with a 0 fielding run value, not exactly the greatest defensive endorsement. Of course, we have to account for a learning curve with infrequent playing time for a rookie on top of the usual caveats when it comes to analyzing quantifiable defensive performance. There is also the matter of game calling, which was a work in progress last season. In other words, I am not necessarily worried about Díaz defensively or with game-calling long-term, but I am curious to see how he progresses as a full-time starter this season.
Caratini’s presence, however, should help at least offset some immediate concerns. Whereas Díaz’s value is primarily linked to his bat, Caratin’s value is primarily derived from his defensive capabilities and his reputation for handling a pitching staff. Coming from the Brewers, the 30-year-old offers a nice complement of skills to his younger counterpart. He also boasts a bat with occasional power, but, again, the defense and his handling of the pitching staff is Caratini’s allure. An ideal complement for Díaz, especially as he navigates a starter role for the first time on a major league roster.
Overall, there is a lot to like about the catcher position in Houston for the first time in years. For one, the duo rostered now represents a clear upgrade, even if it ultimately reaches a middle-of-the-pack rating. But the potential is there for Díaz to exceed his projections, especially if his defense is better than advertised. Even if overshadowed by Josh Hader’s signing, there may not be a bigger upgrade made on this roster than simply playing Díaz more and signing an adequate backup in Caratini.
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