Three Astros’ Factoids

Don’t let the facts get in the way of initial impressions. We’re human being and that’s how we roll sometimes. So, this article will share three factoids about the Astros which may run counter to our impressions.

The Astros Bullpen Is Actually Good

After several dramatic blown saves early in the season which contributed to a horrendous first couple of months, many Astros’ fans remain scared every time the bullpen takes over now. Frequently the narrative continues that the Astros’ bullpen is a team weakness.

But think again. The Astros’ bullpen actually is a strength. Every team’s fans complain about their bullpen, because when the inevitable falters occur, it is painful. However, relatively speaking, the Astros bullpen is very good at not blowing up.

The win probability stat, Melt Downs (MD), is better than “blown saves” at measuring the frequency of bullpen collapses. It uses the change in win probability after a reliever’s entry into the game to measure melt downs. The Astros’ bullpen is the third best in the MLB at avoiding meltdowns—32 melt downs, which is 29% fewer than the average MLB team. Only the Yankees and Braves have fewer melt downs. Perhaps you thought the Astros would rank worse? Maybe you think it should be worse because the Astros had the 10th most melt downs at the end of April. However, the Astros bullpen has performed much better since then. In the month of June, the Astros’ bullpen had the fewest melt downs of any team in the major leagues (7).

RE24 is another win probability stat which is useful for evaluating relief pitchers. It tells us whether the pitcher improves or decreases the team’s run expectancy after he enters the game. You can skip WHIP and look at RE24. The Astros’ bullpen is 8th best in RE24, producing 18.7 runs above average. This is about twice as good in run expectancy as the average team’s bullpen.

Ronel Blanco: Among the Best at ERA; Not As Good at WAR

Ronel Blanco has saved the Astros’ rotation this season. The starting rotation has been beset by injuries, but Blanco stepped up to produce ace-like performance.

Based on ERA, Blanco’s performance has been elite. He has the 6th best ERA among qualified starting pitchers: 2.49. Our initial impression of starting pitchers is based on ERA. But Fangraphs’ WAR (wins above replacement) tells a slightly different story.

Blanco’s ranking for WAR is a much lower 56th best (0.8 WAR). When it comes time to vote for awards like the Cy Young, some people may give more weight to the WAR ranking.

Why is the WAR ranking so much lower than the ERA ranking? Fangraphs’ pitching WAR is based on fielding independent pitching (FIP), which is driven by strike outs, walks, and home runs allowed. Blanco’s FIP is 4.43, which is more than 2 runs higher than his ERA. Blanco walks too many batters (3.69/9 innings) to accumulate a high WAR ranking.

Most people rely upon Fangraphs’ version of WAR. But Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR can produce quite different results for pitchers. That’s because B-Ref uses Runs Allowed as adjusted for team defense (instead of FIP) to develop WAR. And Blanco has a significantly higher 2.9 Wins Above Replacement on the Baseball-Reference measure of WAR.

Since FIP is more reliable than ERA at reflecting future performance, Blanco may need to reduce his walk rate to avoid regression in his ERA, going forward.

Astros’ Starting Pitchers: Contact Managers

The Astros’ rotation has been decimated by injuries. But the Astros starters have carried the day in the last few weeks. Astros’ starters achieved the second lowest ERA in the majors during June (3.32)—only the Mariners’ rotation was better.

How has the rotation survived and even excelled, despite a crowded injured list? The Astros’ starters have managed the quality of contact well.

The Astros’ starting pitchers have managed the 3d lowest average exit velocity in the majors (88.7 mph). The starters have the second lowest hard contact percent in the majors (36.2%). So, the Astros’ rotation has been really good at inducing weak contact.

Can the Astros’ starters continue to be contact managers? Who knows. But the Astros’ starters need to continue these results, and hope that pitchers returning from the injured list will provide reinforcements.