STEPHEN GLOVER: The fact is that Starmer STILL hasn't sealed the deal with British voters
Media pundits are mostly united in believing that the Tories were hammered last Thursday, and are heading towards a catastrophic defeat at the general election.
There's certainly evidence to support this view. In Blackpool South, where there was a lone by-election, Labour enjoyed a massive 26-point swing from the Tories, who were nearly pushed into third place by Reform UK.
And although Ben Houchen was re-elected as Tees Valley mayor, the Conservatives were vanquished by Labour in every other mayoral contest, even if the margin of victory was wafer-thin in the West Midlands.
Overall, the Tories lost 473 councillors, and ended up with a slightly lower tally than the Liberal Democrats. Remember, though, that these local elections covered only parts of England.
So, yes, it was a dreadful performance, and almost as bad as the most pessimistic predictions.
![Some people evidently remain uncertain about what Sir Keir, the master of U-turns, actually stands for](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/05/06/01/84485407-13384993-Some_people_evidently_remain_uncertain_about_what_Sir_Keir_the_m-a-19_1714957147856.jpg)
Some people evidently remain uncertain about what Sir Keir, the master of U-turns, actually stands for
But if one digs down into the numbers, the picture is somewhat less gloomy for the Tories, and distinctly less bracing for Sir Keir Starmer.
Labour's share of the vote was 34 per cent, while the Conservatives' was 27 per cent. Extrapolating Thursday's results is dangerous because turnout was much lower than at a general election, while local issues played a bigger role. Not only much of England but all of Wales and Scotland were excluded.
Labour's showing implies a small majority or hung parliament in the forthcoming nationwide election, rather than the kind of landslide achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. New Labour then won just over 43 per cent of the vote – almost 10 per cent more than in Thursday's elections.
Labour's performance put them only 7 per cent ahead of the Tories, whereas recent polls have been showing leads of 20 per cent or more.
The fact is that Sir Keir Starmer hasn't sealed the deal with voters. Labour is being damaged by the defection of some Muslims because of its principled stand on Gaza. More than that, some people evidently remain uncertain about what Sir Keir, the master of U-turns, actually stands for.
Am I clutching at straws? I don't think so. My suggestion is not that the Tories merely have to apply a touch on the tiller to pull off a stunning victory in an election very likely to take place in October or November. I certainly don't think that.
But I do think the result could be much closer than many observers are predicting, if only the Tories get their act together, start showing some discipline, and go on producing popular policies.
![Extrapolating Thursday¿s results is dangerous because turnout was much lower than at a general election, while local issues played a bigger role](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/05/06/01/84485411-13384993-Extrapolating_Thursday_s_results_is_dangerous_because_turnout_wa-a-20_1714957147859.jpg)
Extrapolating Thursday's results is dangerous because turnout was much lower than at a general election, while local issues played a bigger role
The prerequisite of a Conservative recovery, without which everything else will be a waste of time, is to rally around Rishi Sunak. He's obviously not a perfect Prime Minister but he's the only one the Tories have got, and they had better get used to that.
If reports of Conservative rebels sheathing their daggers are true, there's a chance that the party will present a united front to voters. This means that the Suella Bravermans and Robert Jenricks of this world must stop writing critical articles or making provocative statements telling Mr Sunak what he must do.
Voters aren't stupid. They know that when leading Tories say that they support Rishi, but he really must get on and do A, B, and C, they are speaking with forked tongues.
Whether the Tories can re-establish order, given their propensity for fratricide, may be reasonably doubted. I believe there's a possibility that they will do so, because the alternative is political oblivion. They must realise that the smallest grumble about Rishi will be taken up and amplified by the anti-Tory media.
As far as policies are concerned, Mr Sunak has admittedly often been slow to act, but he does tend to get there in the end. Another tax cut a couple of months before the election might persuade voters that the Conservatives, unlike Labour, really do believe in lower taxes.
Someone – and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, may be too lightweight for this task – must sit on the large, self-satisfied specimen of humanity that is the Governor of the Bank of England, and tell him that now is the time to start cutting interest rates.
Some illegal migrants may be put on aeroplanes to Rwanda in July, which would mark a kind of resolution to a painful saga. Just as important are the next batch of immigration figures. A sharp decline in the number of visas being handed out suggests that the Government is finally gripping this issue.
Uncontrolled immigration will be of the greatest concern to voters over the next few years. Labour has produced no convincing policies to restrict either legal or illegal arrivals. Here is a clear opportunity for the Tories.
Slow though he has sometimes been in getting to the starting line, Rishi can persuade voters that he's more to be trusted on defence (where Labour has refused to match the Government's pledge to increase spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP) and welfare reform.
Having lost the West Midlands mayoral contest by a whisker, Andy Street warned the Tories not to 'drift' to the Right. If he means that they should shun popular and necessary policies on tax, immigration, defence and welfare, he's absolutely wrong.
In a way, the greatest danger to the Conservatives is not Labour but Reform UK, which won 17 per cent of the vote in Blackpool South. As it fielded candidates only in a sixth of wards in the local elections, it caused limited damage to the Tories.
Most of Reform UK's prospective voters are probably disgruntled Conservatives. If they can be persuaded that Rishi & Co have finally got the message, many of them could be won back at the general election.
The past can't be undone. The parties at No 10 during the pandemic, the messy defenestration of Boris Johnson, the lunacies of Liz Truss – all these have left a stain on the Tories, and made many people question their probity and competence.
But the die isn't cast. Look at the share of the vote on Thursday. The Conservative Party can avoid a wipeout – so long as it doesn't try to wipe out Rishi.