Poll reveals which presidential candidate has a two-point lead
Kamala Harris has closed the gap on Donald Trump but the former president still holds a two-point lead over the new Democratic nominee, according to an exclusive poll for DailyMail.com. It shows how Joe Biden 's decision to step aside has upended the race for the White House. But where other recent polls show the vice president surging ahead, our survey of 1001 likely voters found that 43 percent would vote for Trump if the election were tomorrow, compared with 41 percent who would vote for Harris.
With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent it sets the stage for a nail-biter of an election in November. A separate online survey teased out the attributes responsible for Trump's lead. It found that voters still see him as the stronger, more charismatic candidate, who is more likely to get things done. Even so, Harris scores better than Biden across the board. And it all suggests that she is shaping up to be a more formidable opponent than the 81-year-old she replaced.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners which conducted the poll, said that there were still plenty of positives in the poll for Trump after a trying period. 'Do not get us wrong. Harris has made big inroads—especially with young voters and blacks—and she has started to close the gap with independents. 'But Trump holds an advantage with his base, who remain more energized, and has held his position with whites, Hispanics, and voters over the age of 50.
'Harris's biggest support remains relatively limited to 18 to 49-year-olds. A lot of this is due to Trump’s dominance on the issues of the economy and the border.' The result is a tighter race, he added, and Trump could yet have further to fall. 'But at the moment we are looking at a race made tighter, rather than transformed to a Harris shoo-in,' he said.
'All eyes now should be on the independents. If Harris can make more progress with them, then we could see Trump's advantage disappear.' Harris was catapulted into the race after Biden announced last month that he was giving up his reelection campaign. Trump insiders were initially jubilant, expecting weeks of Democratic infighting. But the party quickly rallied around the vice president and will show a united front at its convention in Chicago next week.
The result has been a series of polls showing that Harris has overturned, or at least reined in, Trump's clear poll lead. Trump took aim at Harris during a conversation with Elon Musk, owner of the X social media platform, on Monday evening. 'She is a San Francisco liberal who destroyed San Francisco, and then as attorney-general, she destroyed California,' he said.
The accusation that Harris is a liberal has found traction with voters, who said in our survey it was their number-one hesitation in voting for her. However, there is good news for Harris when it comes to voter views on key attributes. She fares much better against Trump on who Americans see as 'strong,' 'competent' and 'stands for me and my priorities' than Biden ever did.
So although Trump wins by seven points on strength over Harris, that compares with a 25 percent gap when Biden was still running. He also still wins of 'gets things done' by 49 points to 40 points, and 'charisma' by 45 points to 40. But Harris has extended Biden's lead in a raft of other areas, including 'caring,' 'moral' and 'stands for me.'
She heads to Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday for her first big policy speech since moving to the top of the ticket. She is expected to set out ways to lower costs for middle-class families, a concern that routinely tops voters' lists, and tackle corporate price gouging. At the weekend she announced her support for abolishing tax on tips for service workers, following Trump's lead. Our poll found that the policy was wildly popular, likely outweighing any backlash Harris might feel for copying her opponent's policy.
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