The REAL nightmare before Christmas: Covid rates double in a fortnight with up to one in 16 people now infected in worst-hit parts of UK - as health chiefs urge those nursing coughs and cold to limit contact with elderly relatives
- Experts estimate more than 2.5million Brits were carrying the virus last week
- The highest rates were logged in London and the South East with 6.1% and 4.8%
Covid is sweeping the UK once again, with infections more than doubling in just a fortnight.
One in 24 people across England and Scotland had the virus in the week to December 13, up from one in 55 two weeks earlier, according to surveillance data.
But that figure rises to one in 16 in London — the worst-hit area, according to figures from the UK Health Security (UKHSA) and Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Virus-related hospital admissions are also on the up, the NHS has warned.
Health chiefs fear the outbreak will continue to pick up pace in the coming weeks as more people socialise indoors over Christmas and the New Year.
They have urged people coughs, sore throats or a runny nose to limit contact with vulnerable groups — such as the elderly, pregnant women and those with underlying conditions — over fears they could become seriously unwell with the virus.
Some scientists warned the data was a 'wakeup call' and showed the UK was 'not out of the woods yet'. Others, however, said it indicated the virus was not 'causing as much harm as previous years' but it was still unclear how high infections could rise.
The joint UKHSA and ONS data incorporates responses from 150,000 participants and 30,000 lateral flow test results per week.
Its data suggests 4.2 per cent of people in England and Scotland (2.5million) were infected in the week to December 13.
This is more than double the 1.8 per cent recorded in the previous fortnight, up to November 29.
In England, some 4.3 per cent were infected (2.3million) with Covid in the latest week. In Scotland, the figure stood at 215,000 (4.1 per cent).
Professor Steven Riley, director general for data and surveillance at the UKHSA said: 'At this time of year, the cold weather, shorter days and increased socialising mean the potential for transmission of respiratory viruses like Covid is particularly high.'
'This, as well as the possible impact of new variants, means it's not unexpected to see cases increasing.'
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Within English regions, rates were highest in London and the South East of England, which logged 6.1 and 4.8 per cent respectively.
They were followed by the East of England with 4.4 per cent.
It was lowest, meanwhile, in both the East and West Midlands which both recorded a rate of 3.4 per cent.
The data also revealed that cases appear to be highest among younger people aged between 18 and 44.
Rates have almost tripled in a month among 18 to 34-year-olds, with December 13 logging 5.8 per cent, up from the 2.1 per cent recorded on November 14.
Among 35 to 44-year-olds, the rate was also 5.7 per cent, up on the 2 per cent on November 14.
Infection rates were lowest among the elderly, which recorded rates of 2.6 per cent on December 13, in 65 to 74 year-olds and 2 per cent for those aged 75 and over.
UKHSA chiefs noted, however, that the sample sizes used to estimate prevalence for each age group are smaller than the overall study’s sample size, meaning there is higher uncertainty compared to national infection estimates.
Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at UKHSA, said: 'The effects of the recent cold weather and increased socialising indoors in the run up to Christmas are unsurprisingly causing flu and Covid to spread more easily and numbers infected going up further.'
She added: 'If you are showing signs of a respiratory illness, like flu and Covid, try to limit your contact with others as much as possible, particularly those who are more vulnerable.'
![Separate ONS data on Covid infections today also showed symptoms including headaches, a runny nose and coughing were among three of the most common Covid symptoms reported in the week ending December 13. Other frequently logged symptoms also included muscle ache, a sore throat and tiredness](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/12/21/11/79209539-12889261-image-a-1_1703157698677.jpg)
Separate ONS data on Covid infections today also showed symptoms including headaches, a runny nose and coughing were among three of the most common Covid symptoms reported in the week ending December 13. Other frequently logged symptoms also included muscle ache, a sore throat and tiredness
Current Covid infection levels are in line with those detected in mid-January, when cases were declining from the winter peak of around 1.7million, according to a separate Covid monitoring project, ran by health-tech firm ZOE.
However, separate NHS data released today shows Covid cases in hospital are also rising, up more than a third in the last four weeks.
There were 3,390 virus patients in hospital on December 17, up 38 per cent on the 2,452 logged on November 19.
This is also an increase of 12 per cent in a week from the 3,024 logged on December 10.
The figures also revealed the number of patients in hospital with flu is four times higher than the end of last month.
An average of 648 patients per day were hospitalised in the week ending December 17, compared to 160 on November 26. It's also two thirds higher than the 402 logged at the end of December 10.
Winter vomiting bug norovirus also continued to pile pressure on hospitals, with an average of 566 patients in hospital per day — up 10 per cent on the previous week (506).
It is also around 55 per cent higher than the same week last year (364).
Professor Sir Stephen Powis, NHS national medical director, said: 'Today’s figures show that winter is well and truly with us and frontline staff are managing increased pressures due to even more flu, covid and norovirus.
'While NHS staff across the country are doing everything they can to get as many people as possible home in time for Christmas, we are aware the latest strikes could an impact on almost all routine care including likely difficulties discharging patients.'
He added: 'We have already said we expect this to be the most challenging winter yet with strike action in the mix, and high occupancy in our hospitals is deeply concerning as our hardworking staff juggle seasonal viruses and strikes going into Christmas.'
For weeks, health chiefs have also warned about a rise in cases and hospitalisations driven by Omicron sub-variant JN.1, which is massively outperforming every other known strain.
UKHSA chiefs have designated it an official variant, labelled it V-23DEC-01. The process means it is formally being tracked.
It was first spotted by the UKHSA as part of a routine scheme designed to assess emerging infections and flagged because of a troublesome mutation in its spike protein, one known to help the virus dodge the body's immune system.
UKHSA chiefs noted the particular strain was also taking off internationally as well as in the UK.
Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University, said today's UKHSA ONS figures were a 'wakeup call' demonstrating 'we are not out of the woods yet'.
He told MailOnline: 'They show that Covid hasn’t gone away but is spreading fast.
'This spread is compounded by low levels of immunity in the population, more indoor mixing which is inevitable over the holiday season and the arrival of a new sub-variant of Omicron, JN.1, which is more infectious.
'Covid is not a trivial infection — it can have serious short-term and long-term effects. We need to be careful over the Christmas period to protect ourselves and particularly the elderly and clinically vulnerable.'
Separate UKHSA data on Covid variant surveillance also showed Omicron variant, BA.2.86, nicknamed Pirola, accounted for 45.1 per cent of all Covid infections between November 27 and December 3.
Health chiefs, however, did not confirm how many of these were JN.1 cases, a subvariant of BA.2.86, due to 'poorer quality sequence data'.
![However, separate NHS data released today shows Covid cases in hospital are also rising, up more than a third in the last four weeks. There were 3,390 virus patients in hospital on December 17, up 38 per cent on the 2,452 logged on November 19. This is also an increase of 12 per cent in a week from the 3,024 logged on December 10](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/12/21/12/79210497-12889261-image-a-1_1703160289818.jpg)
However, separate NHS data released today shows Covid cases in hospital are also rising, up more than a third in the last four weeks. There were 3,390 virus patients in hospital on December 17, up 38 per cent on the 2,452 logged on November 19. This is also an increase of 12 per cent in a week from the 3,024 logged on December 10
Eris, known scientifically as EG.5.1, meanwhile, made up over a quarter (27.7 per cent) of all other cases and Omicron (XBB), 15.4 per cent.
Omicron spin-offs Arcturus and Kraken — named XBB.1.16 and XBB.1.5 — accounted for 5.2 and 4.3 per cent.
Other ONS figures also released today on Covid infections showed symptoms including headaches, a runny nose and coughing were among three of the most common Covid symptoms reported in the week ending December 13.
Muscle ache, a sore throat and tiredness were three other frequently logged symptoms.
Covid infection rates, however, are nowhere near levels seen earlier in the pandemic.
Professor Paul Hunter, a respected infectious disease specialist at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline Covid infections were not 'causing as much harm as in previous years'.
He added: 'Although infections are higher this year than last, they are putting less than half the patients in hospital.
'So on average, someone catching Covid this year is a lot less likely to end up in hospital because of it than last year and substantially less than 2021.'
However, he cautioned it is still unclear just 'how high infections will go and when they will peak'.
He said: 'While a Covid infection is much less likely to put you in hospital than a year ago, if infection rates go very high then this will put pressure on the NHS.
'Unfortunately it is too early to know this. I suspect that Covid infections will peak early in January and hospital beds take up still won’t be as high as last year by a significant margin.'
Infections climbed as high as 4.3million two years ago during the spread of the original Omicron — but this was topped a few months later, when the number reached a record 4.9million.
The threat of Covid has been drastically reduced by the wall of immunity built up by vaccines and infections.
As such, in many people it can now typically cause an illness similar to the flu, as opposed to the potentially lethal symptoms experienced in 2020.
Health chiefs have called on those eligible to get their flu and Covid booster jabs to reduce their risk of becoming severely unwell and needing hospital care.
They urged Brits to turn to pharmacies and local urgent treatment centres where appropriate, as increased virus patients is causing A&E delays to further spiral.
Professor Riley said: 'If you are showing symptoms of Covid or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.'
He added: 'It is important that those people who are most at risk of severe illness and hospitalisation as a result of Covid come forward for their seasonal vaccination to make sure they have the best possible protection this winter.
'You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a Covid vaccination walk-in site.'