EXCLUSIVE: Pollsters blew it in 2016 and 2020, but have they FINALLY got it right for the midterms? Experts tell DailyMail.com text messages and online forms have helped get more answers - but are the surveys accurate and do results STILL favor Democrats?
- Polls for 2020 had the largest errors in 40 years
- That succeeded polling flops in 2020 that failed to predict Trump win
- Pollsters undertook new methods to try to reach Trump supporters
- Some surveys now rely on text messages and emails – not just land lines
- Poll averages bring together a raft of surveys but vary based on who is in field
- Pollster Frank Luntz says his callers tells respondents 'your opinion matters'
- 2022 features dead-heat races in battlegrounds in Georgia and Arizona
- Republicans are poised to seize control of the House
- Senate control hinges on many close races, and Georgia could end up in runoff
Pollsters were left red-faced in 2020 when most of their surveys significantly overestimated support for Joe Biden.
Most tweaked their formulas and are trying new methods to get the results right for the critical off-year elections.
But some experts fear that the industry could once again be overlooking harder-to-include Trump voters, though not for lack of trying.
'There is a group of voters, the Trump supporters, who I personally think are more reluctant to talk to reporters and pollsters. That is in my humble judgement one of the reasons why the polls overrepresented Democrats – simply because they didn’t agree to be interviewed,' said Terry Madonna, who directs the Franklin & Marshall poll in battleground Pennsylvania.
'I just think that segment of the population exists. There’s a reluctance on the part of many of them, not all of them, many of them to stay hell no, no interview,' he told DailyMail.com.
'In the end it’s going to require a proper sample of Trump voters because Trump voters don’t like participating in surveys,' pollster Frank Luntz told DailyMail.com. 'They don’t trust pollsters. They don’t believe the information’s going to be used objectively. And so too many pollsters don’t go out of their way to ensure that they have a full sample of the country.'
![Real Clear Politics' projection is just one that has the Republicans taking the Senate after the midterms. Will some of the polls that were so far off in 2016 and 2020 be closer to the final result in 2020?](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/05/12/64208491-11391801-image-a-1_1667652748022.jpg)
Real Clear Politics' projection is just one that has the Republicans taking the Senate after the midterms. Will some of the polls that were so far off in 2016 and 2020 be closer to the final result in 2020?
![Polls in 2016 famously failed to predict Donald Trump's win. Then, polls overstated Joe Biden's support by about 4 percentage points, although he still beat Trump by 7 million votes. Pollsters undertook new methods to try to bring in Trump supporters](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/20/64208181-11391801-image-a-15_1667595563441.jpg)
Polls in 2016 famously failed to predict Donald Trump's win. Then, polls overstated Joe Biden's support by about 4 percentage points, although he still beat Trump by 7 million votes. Pollsters undertook new methods to try to bring in Trump supporters
Luntz says he lengthened his own polling script by about 90 seconds after 2016, repeatedly telling respondents that 'your opinion matters' as a way to try to reduce their suspicion.
Pollsters note that surveys represent a snapshot in time, and are better at showing the direction of a race than a precise forecast of where it will end up.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic John Fetterman's race against Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz is a keystone race that could determine control of the Senate – and the fate of President Joe Biden's remaining agenda.
'I think it's very good and useful to look at polls assessments to provide a narrative,' said pollster Lee Miringoff, whose Marist poll released Friday gave Fetterman a six-point lead.
![Control of the Senate hangs in the balance. Many key races are tossups, and the Georgia Senate race could end up in a runoff – if the polls are to be believed](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/20/64208479-11391801-image-a-11_1667595538512.jpg)
Control of the Senate hangs in the balance. Many key races are tossups, and the Georgia Senate race could end up in a runoff – if the polls are to be believed
![Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is one of several endangered Democratic incumbents. She faces Trump-backed Adam Laxalt](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/20/64208483-11391801-image-a-12_1667595546617.jpg)
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is one of several endangered Democratic incumbents. She faces Trump-backed Adam Laxalt
![Trump's own believe in his own private pre-election polling could have influenced his own belief that he 'won' the election, as he declared on election night 2020](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/21/64208971-11391801-image-a-27_1667596844116.jpg)
Trump's own believe in his own private pre-election polling could have influenced his own belief that he 'won' the election, as he declared on election night 2020
![Polling experts frequently warn to consider a polling margin of error, and not to place too much stock in an individual survey. Races hovering in the 2 percent range are basically tossups](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/21/64208819-11391801-image-a-28_1667596903241.jpg)
Polling experts frequently warn to consider a polling margin of error, and not to place too much stock in an individual survey. Races hovering in the 2 percent range are basically tossups
![There are potential real world consequences to polling errors. If people think a race isn't close, they might decide not to vote](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/21/64208973-11391801-image-a-29_1667596947018.jpg)
There are potential real world consequences to polling errors. If people think a race isn't close, they might decide not to vote
'I think the narrative in all the polls is: it's post race and it's gotten closer, as the campaign has gone on, and I think that the there's a difference clearly in Pennsylvania between the governor's and the Senate race. And the governor's race looks more of a lot the same race ... On our numbers there is the advantage to Fetterman overall, but it's not the kind of number that you really want to put the house on,' he told DailyMail.com.
Even a six-point lead, with a 3.6 per cent margin of error, could be providing an inaccurate snapshot of who is 'ahead.'
The early gold standard polls used to rely on telephone surveys of Americans in their homes. Now, pollsters relying on weighting techniques as well as multi-faceted approaches to track people down, on their phones, online, and on their phones.
'It has been harder to reach people,' said Miringoff. 'Because people vote differently. We're also now providing them an access to respond to polls in three different ways,
For their current poll, they reached people three different ways – allowing the survey to be conducted in three states in a matter of days.
'So we were able to get a better response pattern,' he said.
![Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) finds himself in a dead heat against Trump-backed Herschel Walker](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/21/64208183-11391801-image-a-16_1667596597337.jpg)
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) finds himself in a dead heat against Trump-backed Herschel Walker
![Polling doesn't always take in late developments, like Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Lt. Gov. John Fetterman over her former collaborator Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/21/64208177-11391801-image-a-17_1667596599981.jpg)
Polling doesn't always take in late developments, like Oprah Winfrey's endorsement of Lt. Gov. John Fetterman over her former collaborator Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania
![Fetterman's debate performance does not appear to have hurt his support among Democrats, although his lead from several months ago has narrowed. His race is considered a toss-up](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/21/64208163-11391801-image-a-18_1667596603080.jpg)
Fetterman's debate performance does not appear to have hurt his support among Democrats, although his lead from several months ago has narrowed. His race is considered a toss-up
The outlet's other polls showed Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker in a dead heat in the Georgia Senate race, 40 to 48. That closely tracked the RealClearPolitics average, which had the two men tied at 47, separated only by 0.4 percentage points. It is considered a true tossup – and could go to a runoff, with Senate control hanging in the balance.
A look at the national polling picture this year shows Republicans on the march, and in sight of retaking control of the House, which would be in keeping with historical patterns.
The trend in recent days has showed a number of Democrats in unexpectedly tight races even in Democratic-leaning states like Oregon and New York.
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly leads Trump-backed Blake Masters in Arizona – but with a one-point lead that is trimmed down from 6-points in early September.
But consumers of polls – and voters – might want to take caution not to put too much stock in polls in the final hours before election day.
!['On our numbers there is the advantage to Fetterman overall, but it's not the kind of number that you really want to put the house on,' pollster Lee Miringoff told DailyMail.com. The Marist poll has John Fetterman 6 points up over Dr. Mehmet Oz](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/11/04/22/64209271-11391801-_On_our_numbers_there_is_the_advantage_to_Fetterman_overall_but_-a-40_1667600671424.jpg)
'On our numbers there is the advantage to Fetterman overall, but it's not the kind of number that you really want to put the house on,' pollster Lee Miringoff told DailyMail.com. The Marist poll has John Fetterman 6 points up over Dr. Mehmet Oz
The polls before the 2020 election had the highest errors in 40 years, according to an analysis by a task force of the American Association of Public Opinion Research.
There is at least a possibility that the polls are overweighting Republican support this time – not due to poor methodology, but because the polling averages are taking into account a greater share of Republican-leaning polls.
The Trafalgar poll, which famously predicted a Trump win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, had Oz leading Fetterman 48 to 46 on Friday.
It's a Republican leaning poll that scores high ratings for accuracy. But its frequency also tends to tilt poll averages more into the red column.
'They also don't really publish their methodologies, so we wouldn't be able to tell you the difference, said Jay DeDapper of the Marist poll, referring to the American Association of Public Opinion Research.
'There are ways in which you publish your methodologies and they and lots of others that get included in these aggregators don't do that,' he said.
The political polling site FiveThirtyEight publishes grades and rankings of the major polling outfits. (Familiar outlets like Marist, Siena College, and Monmouth University get As. Trafalger gets an A-, and the storied Gallup gets a B+.)
There is more at stake than simply getting it right. Faulty polls can have a real world impact – persuading voters to sit out an election, for example, if they think falsely that their candidate is far ahead.
Luntz thinks Trump's own rosy polls helped fuel his false belief that he 'won' the election.
'What happened after 2020 after the election was a tragedy. I believe that some polling played a role in it because it caused him to think that he was being robbed.'
'We all paid a price for it,' he added.
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