EXCLUSIVEWhat are the odds Rishi Sunak will hold the General Election in November? Punters are betting the Prime Minister will announce national vote for Autumn amid speculation
- Rishi Sunak previously ruled out holding the General Election on May 2
After Rishi Sunak ruled out holding the General Election on May 2, punters are betting on an autumn vote, data has revealed.
Online betting platform Betfair puts November as the most likely month voters will head to the polls, according to punters.
This is in line with the view that most senior Tories continue to believe the Prime Minister will wait until the Autumn before going to the polls.
Mr Sunak had previously said his 'working assumption' was the General Election would be in the second half of this year.
If he does not choose October 24 as the date for an Autumn General Election, then November 14 has also been suggested as a possible polling day.
![](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/14/83332573-13281021-image-a-54_1712498398601.jpg)
![Rishi Sunak (pictured) previously ruled out holding the General Election on 2 May and the public believe an autumn general election is the most likely](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330467-13281021-image-a-20_1712490306392.jpg)
Rishi Sunak (pictured) previously ruled out holding the General Election on 2 May and the public believe an autumn general election is the most likely
![Kemi Badenoch is the favourite to replace the PM if he has an unsuccessful General Election](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330459-13281021-image-a-18_1712490301849.jpg)
Kemi Badenoch is the favourite to replace the PM if he has an unsuccessful General Election
This is because the Government is likely to want to avoid holding the vote in the exact same week as the US presidential election on 5 November.
Tory ex-Chancellor George Osborne recently claimed Mr Sunak was planning a General Election on November 14.
He pointed to how the Conservatives have already scheduled their annual conference for September 29 to October 2, which they could turn into a pre-election rally with a blitz of manifesto announcements.
It could also be a possible platform for Mr Sunak to officially call the date of an Autumn election, with the PM's keynote speech set for the final day of the Birmingham event.
The last possible date for a General Election is January 28 next year.
This is because Parliament will automatically dissolve just after midnight on December 17 if an election is not called before then.
Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: 'We are still waiting to hear from the Prime Minister on when the next General Election will take place and there have been a number of reports suggesting all different potential months the country could next go to the polls.
'Looking at the Betfair Exchange market, punters are still confident that it will be November.
'Rishi Sunak has suggested that it will be in the second half of the year, and November is the 11/8 favourite, although there has been recent support for October, which closely follows at 15/8.
'While there have been rumblings of a summer election, the odds suggest this is looking unlikely at the moment, with June 12/1 and July 17/1.'
Kemi Badenoch is the favourite to replace the Prime Minister if he has an unsuccessful general election - despite claims that it could be Penny Mordaunt.
Online betting platform Betfair puts the The Equalities Minister in the top spot in a vote on who is most likely to be the next Conservative leader.
Unsurprisingly, next up is Portsmouth North MP Penny Mordaunt, who found herself in the midst of rumours that discussions were held about crowning her as the new leader if Rishi Sunak faces a confidence vote.
In third place is Home Secretary James Cleverly, then former Home Secretaries Suella Braverman and Priti Patel.
Ms Badenoch previously warned Tory plotters to 'stop messing around' when asked about rumours that she could replace Mr Sunak.
Throwing her weight behind him in January, she said MPs need to 'get behind the leader' and stop treating prime ministers as if they are 'disposable'.
![Unsurprisingly, next up is Portsmouth North MP Penny Mordaunt, who found herself in the midst of rumours that discussions were held about crowning her as the new leader](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330463-13281021-image-a-19_1712490304518.jpg)
Unsurprisingly, next up is Portsmouth North MP Penny Mordaunt, who found herself in the midst of rumours that discussions were held about crowning her as the new leader
![Ms Badenoch previously warned Tory plotters to 'stop messing around' when asked about rumours that she could replace Mr Sunak](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330469-13281021-image-a-21_1712490316426.jpg)
Ms Badenoch previously warned Tory plotters to 'stop messing around' when asked about rumours that she could replace Mr Sunak
Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: 'If the next election goes the way the odds suggest, it could be a complete disaster for Rishi Sunak and a change of leadership for the Conservatives would not be a surprise.
'There's already been lots of speculation surrounding who could potentially replace Sunak if he steps down, Kemi Badenoch has been vocal in her support for the PM, but she leads the way as the 10/3 favourite to replace him.
'There has also been reports of Tories backing Penny Mordaunt, who has also distanced herself from talk of a chance, however she is the second favourite at 4/1. Suella Braverman follows at 8/1.'
In March, it was reported that MPs on the Right of the Tory party have held talks with moderates about uniting behind Penny Mordaunt to replace Rishi Sunak.
Sources said discussions were held about the possibility of crowning Ms Mordaunt as the new leader in a 'coronation' if the Prime Minister faces a confidence vote.
The move would mean an astonishing third change of PM since the last election – but would avoid the need for another divisive leadership contest.
![In March, it was reported that MPs on the Right of the Tory party have held talks with moderates about uniting behind Penny Mordaunt to replace Rishi Sunak](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330465-13281021-image-a-22_1712490319146.jpg)
In March, it was reported that MPs on the Right of the Tory party have held talks with moderates about uniting behind Penny Mordaunt to replace Rishi Sunak
![Kemi Badenoch insisted those touting her as Rishi Sunak's replacement 'are not my friends'](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330461-13281021-image-a-23_1712490322530.jpg)
Kemi Badenoch insisted those touting her as Rishi Sunak's replacement 'are not my friends'
Ms Mordaunt has been identified as a potential standard-bearer for Tory moderates in a future contest in which Right-wingers such as Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman would start as favourites.
Until now, MPs on the Right of the party have opposed her because of her 'woke' views on gender issues.
The MP then fuelled rumours she is 'on manoeuvres' to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader by boasting of her extensive engagement with local party members.
The Leader of the House of Commons revealed how she has made more than 70 visits to local Conservative associations since Mr Sunak became Prime Minister.
Ms Mordaunt crowed about how her visits had 'raised hundreds of thousands of pounds for our prospective candidates, incumbent MPs and local associations'.
But a source involved with the rebels said a deal was emerging in which they could support her provided she sub-contracts the issue to them.
In contrast - the favourite to replace Rishi Sunak has previously warned Tory plotters to 'stop messing around'.
In January, Kemi Badenoch insisted those touting her as Rishi Sunak's replacement in No10 'are not my friends'.
![In third place is Home Secretary James Cleverly (pictured), then former Home Secretaries Suella Braverman and Priti Patel](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330475-13281021-image-a-24_1712490329630.jpg)
In third place is Home Secretary James Cleverly (pictured), then former Home Secretaries Suella Braverman and Priti Patel
![Suella Braverman served as Home Secretary from 6 September 2022 to 19 October 2022, and again from 25 October 2022 to 13 November 2023](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330481-13281021-image-a-26_1712490336040.jpg)
Suella Braverman served as Home Secretary from 6 September 2022 to 19 October 2022, and again from 25 October 2022 to 13 November 2023
She hit out at those who are 'just stirring' as she pledged her support to the Prime Minister and distanced herself from Tory leadership speculation.
She also told Conservative MPs they 'can't just keep treating prime ministers as if they are disposable' amid feverish talk at Westminster about efforts to oust Mr Sunak.
At the time, a senior Tory MP - ex-Cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke - called for a new Conservative leader ahead of the general election as he warned the party is headed for a 'massacre'.
A former Downing Street aide, who conducted polling in No10, also went public to warn Britain is 'on course for at least a decade of Labour rule' as it emerged he had joined a rebel camp trying to bring down the PM at the start of the year.
Asked on Sky News about reports that some Tory MPs want her to be installed as Mr Sunak's replacement, Mrs Badenoch said in January: 'A lot of people who are going around doing this are creating problems and difficulties that the party, and more importantly the country, does not need.
'I fully support the PM and I have said many times that I stood to be leader and lost, and the last time we had a contest after Liz Truss resigned I said that the right person to lead the country was Rishi Sunak, and I still believe that to be the case.'
She also insisted those who are putting her name forward as the next Tory leader are 'not my friends' and 'don't care about my family or what this would entail'.
![Priti Patel served as Home Secretary from 2019 to 2022 and she was Secretary of State for International Development from 2016 to 2017](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2024/04/07/12/83330497-13281021-image-a-27_1712490362108.jpg)
Priti Patel served as Home Secretary from 2019 to 2022 and she was Secretary of State for International Development from 2016 to 2017
'They need to stop messing around and get behind the leader.
'Quite frankly, the people who keep putting my name in there are not my friends. They don't care about me.
'They don't care about my family or what this would entail. They are just stirring.
'We can't just keep treating prime ministers as if they are disposable. 'Oh, the polls aren't doing so well, so let's toss someone else and find another person' – that's quite wrong.'
She continued: 'We should not be trying to drag out PMs on the basis of a popularity contest and polling on websites.'
But, in a later TV interview, she did not deny she continued to harbour Tory leadership ambitions - having unsuccessfully stood to replace Boris Johnson in July 2022.