Tories 'would only have won 40 more seats at election if Reform had not stood' as huge poll finds voters were turned off by 'incompetence' rather than policies
The Tories would only have won around 40 more seats at the election if Reform had not stood, according to a huge poll.
Research by More in Common and UCL cast doubt on calls for a merger with Nigel Farage's insurgents, suggesting that voters were turned off by the government's 'incompetence' rather than policies.
Had Mr Farage opted against coming back as leader and Reform's support stayed a third lower, the Conservatives might have added just 12 MPs. Both outcomes would still have been worse than the 165 amid Tony Blair's landslide in 1997.
A survey of 10,000 Brits and dozens of focus groups in the aftermath of July 4 indicated that two thirds of Reform voters - 2.8million people - would be likely to back a combined party. However, around 2.3million Tories said they would not support such an alliance.
More in Common director Luke Tryl suggested that those arguing for a rightward shift in Conservative policy were 'missing basic arithmetic'.
The Tories have been given food for thought as they look to a post-Rishi Sunak (pictured) era
The Conservatives would only have won around 40 more seats at the election if Mr Farage's Reform had not stood any candidates, according to the huge poll
Research by More in Common and UCL cast doubt on calls for a merger with Nigel Farage 's insurgents
The study found that immigration was by far the biggest motivator for Reform voters
He argued that the typical person who voted Conservative in 2024 was not represented by Mr Farage or Boris Johnson but by former chancellor Philip Hammond.
Tacking too much towards Reform would 'cap' the Conservatives' recovery by further alienating those who had switched either to Labour or the Lib Dems, he cautioned.
Mr Tryl said the central problem voters had with the party was that it had become seen as 'incompetent', and not due to any belief that it had moved to far to the left or right wing.
The report suggested that if the Conservatives had been able to mobilise 2019 Conservatives who did not vote in 2024 they could have secured 33 more seats.
The findings emerged as senior Tories urge Rishi Sunak to stay on as leader until November so the party's conference can be a 'beauty parade' for successors.
Shadow foreign secretary Andrew Mitchell urged Conservatives not to rush the decision as he argued that an interim replacement was not the 'best option'.
However, he acknowledged that Mr Sunak might be 'reticent' to keep the job that long after his election hammering on July 4.
A 'fight for the soul' of the Tories is under way after the election, with half-a-dozen hopefuls considering a leader bid, including Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and James Cleverly.
The More in Common research suggested Labour will need to cut NHS waiting times and speak a 'language of respect' to keep its voter coalition together.
Although Keir Starmer entered Downing Street with the lowest vote share of any governing party, the study found even those who did not vote Labour believed the party had a 'mandate for change'.
Mr Tryl said the election was the latest in a series of votes that had seen the public demand a change from the status quo after the 2016 Brexit referendum and the 2019 general election.
He said: '2024 is the latest version of the electorate saying we want change, we want something different from the status quo.
'And I think there's a profound warning in that too that if it's not delivered this time people will start to look elsewhere as they started to do in this election.'
As to what that change should look like, Mr Tryl said the public had identified cutting NHS waiting lists as the number one practical measure people were looking for, with 63 per cent of people saying that would be their basis for judging whether the new Government was a success.
Lowering the cost of living also scored highly, with 58 per cent saying it would be part of how they judged Labour's performance in office
But More in Common warned that while the public would give Labour credit if it could deliver practical improvements, delivery alone would not be enough to satisfy people's desire for change.
Mr Tryl spoke about a feeling of 'futility' among the electorate, with recent political upheaval leaving the public feeling 'totally exhausted' and that politicians had 'basically lost respect for the people who keep the show on the road'.
The report said: 'Delivery itself will not be an antidote to the pervasive feeling that it is not just public services that are broken – but our entire democratic settlement.
'The public believe that settlement has been broken by politicians and policymakers who are in it for themselves, mired in sleaze and scandal, and who simply don't understand the struggles, worries or concerns of the public.'
The report highlighted that Reform tended to do best in seats where Ukip had performed strongly in 2015
Mr Tryl added that the Prime Minister's promise of a politics that 'treads more lightly on people's lives' was possibly his most important pledge.
He said: 'There is a real premium on both this Government, but also the Conservatives as they think about how to rebuild, talking a language of respect and thinking about how they can demonstrate respect in their policies and in delivery.'
With no 'ideological anchor' uniting Labour's coalition, Mr Tryl said delivery was key to Labour remaining in power.
Marc Stears, Director of the UCL Policy Lab, said: 'The test for the new government is clear: can they fulfil the promise of change?
'Across all parts of society, the electorate turned against incumbents in this election. They are fed up with a country that doesn't work for them and with politicians that don't appear to listen to their concerns.'
