Earth's population will peak at 10.3 BILLION in the mid-2080s, scientists predict
- The UN says there is an 80% chance that global population peaks this century
- Declining global fertility rates mean that most countries will soon hit their peak
In the 75 years since the 1950s, the Earth's population has more than tripled to a staggering 8.2 billion people.
Now, the UN's World Population Prospects 2024 report suggests that our planet's population will grow by more than two billion people in the next decade.
However, scientists predict that the years of rapid growth may come to an end by the mid-2080s.
As of 2024, 63 countries including China, Germany, and Japan have already hit their peak populations with 126 more set to peak by the second half of the century.
John Wilmoth, head of the UN Population Division, said: 'This is a major change compared to the United Nations projections from a decade earlier'.
The UN has predicted that the world will hit its population peak in the mid-2080s at 10.2 billion people
China was once the world's most populous country but has faced more than two decades of low birth rates. Pictured: people walking along a busy street in Beijing
The UN's latest report predicts an 80 per cent probability that the world's population will hit its peak before the end of the century.
That marks a significant change from a decade ago when the UN only assigned a 30 per cent chance that the world's population would peak before 2100.
Among several factors, one of the biggest trends driving this revised prediction is falling fertility rates - particularly in populous countries like China.
Once the world's most populous country, China's population is now predicted to fall from 1.4 billion people today to only 633 million by 2100.
China's fertility rate, the number of live children born per woman, fell below the limit to replace the population in the late 1990s and has not recovered since.
China's population is predicted to fall from 1.4 billion people today to only 633 million by 2100 due to low birth rates
China's fertility rate, the number of live children born per woman, fell below the limit to replace the population in the late 1990s and has not recovered since
Around the world, the data paints a similar picture, with fertility beginning to fall below the 2.1 child per woman rate needed to maintain population growth.
On average, women are having one fewer child than they did in 1990 and in more than half of countries fertility is expected to fall below the 2.1 child per woman threshold.
In some regions, the UN predicts this will make immigration the main source of population growth.
Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, says: 'In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions.'
Across the 63 countries predicted to have already passed their peak, populations are expected to decline by 14 per cent in the next 30 years.
Falling birth rates and increasing deaths due to an ageing population mean that the global population will fall from the 2080s
Populous countries like India will continue to grow into the 2050s but will then reach their peak in the second half of the century
In the UK meanwhile, the population is expected to peak around 2072 at 76,068,383 - up from 69,138,192 in 2024.
By 2100, the population of the UK is predicted to slightly decline to a total of 74.305,411.
The United States, along with 126 other countries including India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, is predicted to keep growing through 2054 and hit peak population in the second half of the century.
However, the UN predicts that nine countries in that group, including Angola, Central African Republic, Congo, Nigeria and Somalia, will experience extremely rapid growth in the coming decades.
In the UK, the population is expected to peak around 2072 at 76,068,383 - up from 69,138,192 in 2024
Europe's population is rapidly approaching its peak and will soon see a shrinking and ageing population
These nine countries are each predicted to double their populations between 2024 and 2054, before hitting their peaks.
Kathleen Mogelgaard, president and CEO of the Washington-based Population Institute, said the new estimates underscore 'an increasing demographic divide around the world.'
While it identified more than 100 countries and territories whose populations have already peaked or will do so in the next 30 years, she said, it shows even more where population will keep growing, many of them among the world's poorest nations.
The UN predicts that rapid population growth in low-income countries is likely to increase the challenge of eradicating poverty and hunger in countries facing severe economic and environmental challenges.
In London (pictured) an ageing workforce and falling population could lead to a shortage of workers and a mounting social care crisis
By 2080, over 65s will outnumber children over 18, according to the UN's predictions
Shifting patterns in birth rates will also cause challenges in richer countries as declining birth rates and rising life expectancy radically shift the world's demographic makeup.
By 2080, the UN predicts that people over 65 will outnumber children under 18, which could precipitate a social care crisis and a shrinking workforce.
However, UN under-secretary Mr Junhua also notes that the shrinking global population could be a force for good.
He says: 'The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption.
'However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person.'
The change in demographics is being driven by falling birth rates coupled with an increasing global life expectancy
Although some countries will continue to grow their populations, the overall global trend shows a decrease in the number of children per woman to below 2.1 in more than half of all countries
Looking ahead, the report compares the world's 10 most populous countries today with their projection of the 10 most populous countries in 2100.
India tops both lists followed by China, though with a much smaller population at the turn of the century.
The United States is in third place today but is replaced by Pakistan in 2100 and drops to sixth place behind Nigeria in fourth and Congo in fifth.
Right behind the US in 2100 are Ethiopia, Indonesia, Tanzania and Bangladesh. Brazil, which is the seventh most populous country today, drops to 12th place at the end of the century.
John Wilmoth adds that nobody knows what the world will be like when the world population peaks in the 2080s and the population is likely to be just one part of it, 'but not necessarily the largest or the determining part.'
'What really matters is our behaviors and the choices we make,' Wilmoth said.
