The Premier League's great gamblers: Why Aston Villa's Sir Alex Ferguson-style strategy and risky transfer game could spectacularly backfire

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When he is not marching across the pitches delivering instructions, Unai Emery likes to watch first-team training from the balcony outside his office at Aston Villa’s Bodymoor Heath base.

Key allies like transfer chief Ramon Rodriguez Verdejo – known as Monchi – and director of football operations Damian Vidagany will often drop by to take in parts of the session and for most of his time at Villa, Emery has enjoyed the view.

Yet towards the end of last season, storm clouds were gathering. Even with the club heading for Champions League qualification, there was a sense of anxiety – even panic – among the hierarchy.

The reason? Premier League spending rules. Unless they could get their books in order by June 30, Villa faced a points deduction during the 2024-25 season that may have put a terminal dent in their attempts to secure another top four-finish.

Guests attending Villa Park for the home leg of last season’s Europa Conference League semi-final against Olympiacos in May were struck by the worried looks on the faces of senior Villa officials.

Unai Emery's Aston Villa side will be looking to pick up on their fantastic form last season

Villa were facing a points deduction in the 2024-25 season due to league spending rules

‘We’re up against it,’ admitted one. ‘We’ll need to be smart this summer,’ conceded another. Phrases like ‘fire sale’ were used by officials of other Premier League clubs when discussing Villa. The club themselves felt exposed: they needed to recoup about £50million before the end of June, and everyone knew it.

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That is where Monchi – one of the most respected sporting directors in the game – and Vidagany came in. Restricted by profitability and sustainability rules, Villa embarked on a period of furious trading in June to get themselves back into the black.

Across the entire window, seven players have departed, eight have arrived. The average age of the squad has been reduced and there are still three weeks left. ‘A typical Monchi window!’ joked an agent who dealt with Monchi regularly during his time at Sevilla.

But with such a demanding season ahead, is making so many changes a gamble too far? Less than a week before they open their Premier League campaign at West Ham on August 17, Villa have lost four of their seven pre-season fixtures and have no proven back-up at centre-forward, given they have been trying all summer to shift Jhon Duran.

How Monchi nearly landed at West Ham

Monchi might have joined West Ham before he eventually became Villa’s ‘president of football operations’ in September 2023. But in the end the chance to work with Emery – who delivered three consecutive Europa League titles during his time at Sevilla – was too good to turn down.

Pre-Monchi, Johan Lange ran recruitment at Villa, with significant input from former chief executive Christian Purslow. In a little more than three years in charge Lange, who is now at Tottenham, built a recruitment structure based heavily on data analysis. Though Villa still use data, the process is now driven by Emery’s eye for talent and Monchi’s experience, contacts and deal-making skills.

Sporting director Monchi has helped steer the ship at Villa Park since his arrival in 2023

Monchi nearly joined West Ham before he became Villa’s ‘president of football operations’

‘He is a natural,’ says Kenneth Asquez, a highly experienced intermediary who has known Monchi since 2003. ‘It’s no coincidence that he was also a player.

‘You have to have been a foot solider, to have been in the mud, to have smelled the grass. That gives you the understanding of how a dressing room works and what it needs. His intuition is first class.

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‘We have seen data-driven recruitment rise over the last five years because there are more people in those roles who have never played professional football, so they use data to fill the vacuum.’

Yet there has been a subtle change in the dynamic between Emery and Monchi. At Sevilla, Emery might say to Monchi ‘I need a strong, athletic central midfielder’. Monchi would present three or four options and Emery would list them in order of preference.

At Villa, Mail Sport understands the pattern is often more straightforward. With the season done, Emery identified Conor Gallagher, a player he had admired since returning to England, as a principal target and left Monchi to do the rest. Villa tried hard to sign the midfielder in May, but the 24-year-old wanted to decide on his future only after Euro 2024.

Emery preferred not to wait that long and turned instead to Ross Barkley, who had enjoyed a fine season for relegated Luton and the transfer fee and wages were favourable, as well as later spending a club record £50m on Everton midfielder Amadou Onana.

The discussions over Gallagher, though, widened channels of communication between Villa and Chelsea and paved the way for a deal that would help Villa stay in line with PSR.

Villa were interested in Chelsea's Conor Gallagher before signing Amadou Onana from Everton

Monchi's contacts prove crucial to Villa's PSR strategy 

Few football fans had heard of Omari Kellyman before late June. A promising forward who Villa signed from Derby’s academy when he was just 16, here he was joining Chelsea for £19million – despite making just six senior appearances.

Ian Maatsen, the Chelsea left-back who played for Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League final, moved to Villa Park for £37.5m. When submitting their annual accounts, clubs are permitted to bank the profit from player sales immediately, while spreading payments over a number of years for those they buy. At a stroke, the clubs’ immediate PSR worries had largely been solved.

Like Chelsea owner Todd Boehly, Villa co-owner Wes Edens owns a basketball franchise in their native USA – Boehly is involved with the LA Lakers, Edens with Milwaukee Bucks, and the clubs now have a strong working relationship.

It was a similar story for Monchi and Juventus. Monchi’s contacts remain strong from his spell at Roma from 2017-19 and proved crucial to another plank of Villa’s PSR strategy – selling Douglas Luiz.

A key player for Emery throughout 2023, there was a sense that towards the end of last season, Luiz was no longer listening to the Spaniard’s messages quite so attentively. Anyone who witnessed the fearful rollicking Emery gave the midfielder midway through Villa’s 4-2 home defeat by Olympiacos would have thought something was amiss – though Emery denied it afterwards.

Between them, Monchi and Juventus sporting director Federico Giuntoli found a way through: £42m to Villa for Luiz, with Juventus fringe players Samuel Iling Jr and Enzo Barrenechea heading to Villa Park.

Everything sorted, then. Not quite. Because while Villa may have – at least temporarily – squared the circle off the pitch, there is plenty of work to do on it.

Omari Kellyman made just six appearances before joining Chelsea for £19million

Villa then signed Chelsea full-back Ian Maatsen in a deal worth £37.5m earlier in the summer

Emery's midfield concern 

Luiz’s sale solved one problem but immediately created another, because there does not appear to be a direct replacement for him in the current squad.

At his best, the 26-year-old could start Villa’s attacking moves and end them, often supplying the key pass that led to a goal. He was an expert set-piece taker and reliable from the penalty spot, finishing last season with 10 goals and 10 assists in all competitions. Onana and Barkley will have their work cut out to plug that gap.

Though Barrenechea is a natural midfield link man, he lacks pedigree. The Argentine was never valued by Juventus and spent last season on loan at Frosinone, who were relegated. He turns 24 next May but is still a novice at senior level.

During talks with Juventus for Luiz, Villa tried hard to sign Matias Soule, another Argentine and one of Serie A’s most exciting attackers. Soule wanted to stay in Italy, though, and has joined Roma. Harsh as it sounds, Iling and Barrenechea feel like consolation prizes, though Barrenechea has impressed in pre-season.

With Watkins on holiday after Euro 2024, Emery tried Morgan Rogers and Cameron Archer in attack, yet Rogers is not a centre-forward and Archer, who spent last season at Sheffield United, has only four goals in 39 Premier League appearances. Duran is another matter: Emery does not trust the Colombian, who has flirted with Chelsea and West Ham on his social media channels.

Douglas Luiz's move to Juventus has left somewhat of a hole in Villa's midfield

Emery returned for pre-season as intense and committed as ever, immediately targeting another top-four finish. Yet while results in July and early August count for little, Villa lost to Colombus Crew, RB Leipzig and Club America in the US, and were beaten 2-0 at Dortmund last Saturday. Their only win over opposition of similar ability was a 3-2 victory over Athletic Bilbao on August 7.

Should they be worried? Given Emery’s results at Villa, there is no reason to be concerned yet. The complete trust in Emery is currently Villa’s great strength – but is also fraught with risk. If the foundations Emery has built start to wobble, what then?

How Emery holds the power 

Not since the days of Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger has a manager of one of England’s major clubs held as much power as Emery does. Fellow Premier League bosses, made to stay in their lane by sporting directors and general managers, have privately marvelled at it.

Including Vidagany and Monchi, the number of staff hired during Emery’s 22-month reign has reached double figures. Real Union, a third-tier club in Spain, is among the clubs controlled by V Sports, who own Villa. Emery has a stake in the club and his brother, Igor, is president.

Not since the days of Sir Alex Ferguson has a manager of one of England’s major clubs held as much power as Emery does

This is Emery’s club now, as the Spaniard prepares to lead them into the new campaign

Eddie Howe ruled the roost like this during his time at Bournemouth, as did Chris Wilder in his first spell at Sheffield United – but neither of these clubs is comparable to Villa, seven-times league champions and European Cup winners in 1982, not to mention their 12 other major domestic trophies.

When Purslow was at Villa, he kept a close eye on both sides of the business, keeping a tight rein on wages and transfer spending. His effective replacement, Chris Heck, is focused more on boosting the Villa brand, signing a new kit deal with Adidas and engineering a ‘takeover’ of Times Square in New York during Villa’s pre-season trip, with images of Villa’s new kit beamed on to giant LED screens. That leaves Emery and his team to decide much of what happens on the football side and wages and transfer fees have risen in that time.

Moussa Diaby, a club-record £45m signing a year ago in the final days of the Lange era, has already been moved on. The Frenchman’s sale to Al-Ittihad in the Saudi Pro League yielded a small profit that will aid next year’s PSR balance sheet but would not have been sanctioned without Emery’s say-so.

This is Emery’s club now but every leader, even hugely successful ones like Ferguson, needs someone they trust alongside them who will give it to them straight. When push comes to shove, will anyone challenge Emery on his tactics if Villa hit a rough patch, or his judgement of players or staff? With Villa trying to remain competitive on four fronts this season, we may learn the answers soon enough.