As countries around the globe grapple with a concerning new nuclear arms race, here are the potential flashpoints capable of triggering a frightening worldwide catastrophe.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has made chilling threats to use nukes as the Ukraine conflict escalates. A fresh partnership between Russia and North Korea was inked where Kim Jong-un might provide weapons in exchange for nuke know-how.
Comparisons have been made between the war drills recently carried out by Putin off Cuba's coast and the heated 1962 standoff between the US and the then Soviet Union - the closest mankind has come to nuclear warfare. However, rising tensions with contemporary Russia aren't the sole zone where a nuclear threat seems possible.
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China grows its pile faster than all others and major risks loom over Asia and the Middle East.
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The "number and types of nuclear weapons in development have increased as states deepen their reliance on nuclear deterrence", stated the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute this week, reports the Mirror.
"What we are seeing right now is that pretty much every single nuclear-armed state is improving their nuclear arsenal either quantitatively or qualitatively," Matt Korda, associate researcher at SIPRI told The Mirror. "So some countries are increasing their number of nuclear weapons in their stockpiles, others are maintaining them relatively stable and just swapping out older systems with newer, more accurate systems. But there is no nuclear-armed country that is standing still, everyone is progressing, everyone is modernising and what is ultimately happening is that we are seeing, as countries engage and tensions raise we are seeing the throes of a new arms race."
Drawing parallels to previous US-Soviet Union standoffs, he added: "There is also an irrational element now to the arms race which makes it more worrying than during the Cold War. Now we have a completely different situation, not only do we now have nine countries that have nuclear weapons, where all of these countries are increasingly interacting with each other in somewhat concerning ways, but there are nine decision-makers - some of whom are not particularly rational.
![Expert Halan Dukhan spoke to the Mirror](https://i2-prod.dailystar.co.uk/incoming/article33086175.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_Haian_DukhanAJPG.jpg)
"They can be driven by emotion, miscalculation and arms control during the Cold War doesn't seem to exist any more. Now they don't want to talk to each other, refusing to engage, wanting to put the blame on each other."
Security and defence experts have revealed to The Mirror where they believe a nuclear war would most likely ignite. Prof John Strawson, from the University of East London, has pinpointed Iran as a potential hotspot, given its believed capability to produce nuclear weapons - a sentiment echoed by Dr Haian Dukhan, of Teesside University.
Mr Korda at SIPRI identifies the tensions in South Asia between China, India and Pakistan as the most concerning currently, while Prof Anthony Glees, of the University of Buckingham, has spotlighted Russia as a significant threat.
Iran
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The Middle East is a powder keg, with the Israel-Hamas conflict threatening to draw in other regional players. Iran, viewing Israel and the West as adversaries, is on the brink of possessing a nuclear bomb.
"I see the situation in Iran as being much worse now following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi as there is bound to be someone more hardline who is likely to replace him," warned Prof Strawson.
"The supreme leader Ali Khamenei is now 85 and he has also not been very pro-nuclear weapons as he has seen them as not Islamic, so when he is replaced there is likely to be a change in nuclear policy altogether from whether it is right to use them to the other extreme. Iran is no longer isolated and it could see that having a nuclear capacity may give them leadership in the region."
Dr Dukhan has expressed concern over the long-term alliance between Iran and Russia, both of which are currently facing sanctions, and Iran's support for Putin's war in Ukraine.
He further elaborated: "Iran is pushing its nuclear programme despite attempts from the West to stop it. Its strategic goal is to increase influence in Middle East and it is supporting Hamas and Hezbollah. There is a fear of a war between Israel and Hezbollah which would lead to a regional conflict. The information suggests that Iran is making good advances with its nuclear enrichment programme and so it is getting closer to having a bomb.
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"This in turn could lead to a regional arms race as it would push other neighbours to also have the bomb. But before that happens, Israel could launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran ahead of it getting the bomb and Iran could then respond with attacks on oil fields which could lead to an oil crisis. The West is warning Israel to hold back on doing this due to the energy threat and it puts Iran in a stronger position."
Mr Korda concurred: "Iran is Increasingly creeping up to this line of nuclear weapon development, the question is whether they go over that is going to political not technical. It is clear they have the technical capability to cross the line if they want to, this is very much a political decision because there are trade offs. It is a significant security trade off as on the one hand it is in a country's interest to develop weapons if they feel threatened so an incentive but there will almost certainly repercussions from the US and Israel in economic and also possibly military actions."
He further added: "Will at some point they decide the risk is worth it? ".
South Asia
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The potential for conflict involving Pakistan, India and China is another worry for experts, particularly given the instability in Pakistan. This concern is heightened by China's rapid expansion of its nuclear force - faster than any other nation - and the existing tensions between China, Pakistan and India.
"We are seeing countries, in particular Pakistan whose posture pushes for early nuclear use and you have India who increasingly looks like they are looking to join their warheads with their missiles which they did not use to do - what it means is that they are capable of launching a lot faster," Mr Korda explained.
"You are starting to see these policy drivers and technical drivers towards using nuclear weapons early in the conflict and on top of that you have the significant tensions in that region both in the context of India and Pakistan but also India and China. These are countries that have engaged in open conflict right along the areas of control over the past few years, a couple of years ago where India accidentally launched a missile into Pakistan with crisis communications around that quite poor. Luckily at the time there was no real conflict but there are a preponderance of factors that you can imagine coming together in a perfect storm to spark a nuclear crisis, that worries me quite a bit."
On the burgeoning Chinese nuclear arsenal, Mr Korda added: "We are seeing a substantial shift in China's nuclear armament - they are building up a lot, they are the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world, it is possible that this is a doctrine change or just redefining what they see as minimum - this could be down to seeing opponents and what they need, as in the past it was never required. "
A potential trigger for a conflict is widely seen as China's claim on Taiwan and Dr Dukhan said: "China might try to take back Taiwan.
"I don't think the risk of a nuclear weapon is as high here as the impact of a nuclear bomb has been seen in the region before and the mutual destruction is understood but it would only take a small mistake and we have been lucky so far. "
Pakistan
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Pakistan's political instability and the presence of Islamic groups have raised global alarm bells, with experts voicing their concerns about the potential threats.
"It is a danger to the whole world as the country is unstable due to the extremists and there could be a change of leadership at any point," Dr Dukhan expressed. "If there was to be a power vacuum due to a coup for example the question is who would have access to the weapons and could they use them against the enemies like India or Israel.
"It may be more stable now but there are continual changes so the threat is there." Mr Korda highlighted the intelligence opportunities presented by Pakistan's military displays: "Every year Pakistan typically throws a big military parade which is a good source of intelligence for us as they are parading all their missiles and we can see what they have and what they are emphasising.
"In 2023 they didn't host a parade partly due to it being at the start of a big unstable period with the ousting of the PM and so on. Unclear to what extent the instability is affecting the nuclear force."
Prof Strawson noted improvements in the region following political shifts: "The situation has calmed since Imran Khan has gone with less radical policies at the moment," he said. "(Indian Prime Minister Narendra) Modi's election results were worse than expected and so there is a coalition which is quite moderate, not as worrying as it could be at the moment. "
Russia
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The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a protracted war and escalating tensions with the West over aid provision. Vladimir Putin has previously indicated that Russia is ready to defend its territory using nuclear weapons, with regular military displays showcasing its nuclear capabilities. "Putin reckons that he can probably win a conventional war, even if it takes years, [...] if he doesn't think he's winning this way, he will try winning another way, by resorting to the use of 'tactical' small-scale nuclear weapons on the battlefield," Prof Glees stated.
"This is Putin's win-win scenario. Another word for it is 'blackmail'. But from now until the US elections in November, there's not a snowball's chance in hell that Nato will let itself be blackmailed.
"This is why Nato is so right to convince Putin he will not defeat Ukraine and that we will take him and his regime out for once and for all at the first warning that he's about launch nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He has talked himself and his people into a situation of extreme danger for them."
This week, concerns have arisen over a new agreement between Russia and North Korea that could result in armaments to assist Putin in his Ukrainian war being traded for nuclear technology. "This is very bad news. Not unexpected with Putin's inability to win in Ukraine makes this alliance highly toxic. It's flashing amber," Prof Glees commented on the new alliance.
"We need to take this new axis of evil very seriously. Together with the Ukraine war it will be the most critical security issue to face all western democracies over the next few years.
"Putin claims the post-1990 world order was simply the tool of western imperialism and that the 21st century will belong to the dictatorial systems of Russia, China and North Korea. We have a systemic fight on our hands"
North Korea
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Kim Jong-un has long been a concern for the West as North Korea gradually builds up its nuclear capabilities and has carried out high-profile missile launches to show off its potential. SIPRI estimates that the country has now assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to reach a total of up to 90 warheads which is significantly greater than a year ago. It appears to have carried out its first test of a short-range ballistic missile from a rudimentary silo in 2023 and also completed the development of at least two types of land-attack cruise missile (LACM) designed to deliver nuclear weapons.
"Like several other nuclear-armed states, North Korea is putting new emphasis on developing its arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons,' said Mr Korda.
"Accordingly, there is a growing concern that North Korea might intend to use these weapons very early in a conflict."
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