When discussing World War 3 a lot of attention gets devoted to the role of the US and the West – but what if it was Russia and China who clashed?
Conflict between the West and Russia or China is more frequently discussed for a number of reasons, and while it may well be the more likely scenario, that is not to say that Russia and China are aligned on every matter.
In fact, in a recent conversation with the Daily Star, Portsmouth University Strategic and Air Power Studies academic Matthew Powell said: “The invasion of Ukraine, Beijing probably weren’t happy with the attention that its brought to Europe, to nations that are looking to bend the rules-based order that has been in place since 1945. Beijing wouldn't have been happy with Russia drawing attention to that and trying to disrupt that because China was trying to exploit the system.”
READ MORE: Putin's 'nuclear sabre-rattling' done to 'influence Western leaders,' claims experts
Click for more of the latest news from across the world from the Daily Star.
What if this annoyance got worse? What would happen if these two countries most frequently framed as rivals to the US actually ended up clashing with each other?
We asked AI to find out.
![Russia and China outwardly seem to have a stable relationship (file)](https://i2-prod.dailystar.co.uk/incoming/article32886469.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/3_CHINA-RUSSIA-DIPLOMACY.jpg)
ChatGPT noted how “China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) boasts approximately 2 million active personnel, supported by advanced technology and a rapidly modernizing navy and air force. China’s military budget is the second-largest in the world, which has allowed for significant advancements in aircraft, naval vessels, and missile systems.”
Meanwhile, “Russia's military, though smaller with about 1 million active personnel, is highly experienced and well-equipped. Russia's defense spending, while lower than China's, has focused on maintaining a robust and versatile force, with significant investments in nuclear capabilities and advanced weaponry.”
It’s not just the militaries themselves that play a part. “The vast expanse of both countries would make logistics and supply lines a critical factor. Harsh climates, particularly in Siberia and the Russian Far East, would pose significant challenges. Control of key geographic regions and infrastructure would be crucial.
![China has a massive military (file)](https://i2-prod.dailystar.co.uk/incoming/article32886472.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/1_This-photo-dated-13-September-2001-shows-Peoples.jpg)
“The long shared border would lead to multiple fronts, complicating military strategies and requiring significant resources to defend and attack.”
Tech would be a big factor in deciding the outcome too, noting both nations had capable technological weapons and tools available to them, before pointing to how big a role nuclear weapons may play.
It continued: “Russia possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with advanced delivery systems. The threat of nuclear escalation would be a significant deterrent against a prolonged conventional conflict.
“China’s nuclear capabilities, while smaller, are still considerable and include a growing number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).”
![Russia has a powerful and experienced military force (stock)](https://i2-prod.dailystar.co.uk/incoming/article32886482.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/1_Victory-Day-military-parade-in-Moscow.jpg)
The strength of China’s economy would also be a major factor. “As the world’s second-largest economy, China has vast industrial capacity to sustain a prolonged conflict, including the ability to rapidly produce military equipment and supplies,” while, “Russia's economy is more vulnerable, heavily reliant on energy exports. Prolonged conflict could strain Russia’s economic resources, although its defence industry remains capable.”
The bot looked at a few different likely scenarios, neither of the two more likey sounding being good for the countries.
One of these options is Stalemate and Attrition. In this scenario, “given the strength and capabilities of both nations, a full-scale conflict could result in a prolonged stalemate, with neither side achieving a decisive victory. Attrition warfare could drain resources and lead to massive casualties without clear gains.”
![Russia and China would likely cause each other some serious damage (stock)](https://i2-prod.dailystar.co.uk/incoming/article32886477.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/1_Chinas-Peoples-Liberation-Army-PLA-s.jpg)
The other option, and the one the world dreads more than anything, is nuclear escalation, where “even a limited nuclear exchange would have catastrophic consequences, likely leading to global condemnation and efforts to halt the conflict.”
While it thought that territorial gains would be hard to sustain for either side, the bot did reckon economic ruin for both was likely, concluding that, “a full-scale military conflict between China and Russia would likely be devastating for both nations and could have unpredictable and far-reaching consequences.
"The outcome would depend on various factors, including military strategies, technological advantages, economic resilience, and the international community's response. The most likely scenario is that such a war would result in a costly and destructive stalemate, with no clear winner and significant global ramifications.”
For the latest breaking news and stories from across the globe from the Daily Star, sign up for our newsletters.