The US elections of 2024

Our coverage of the race to control the White House and Congress

Latest coverage

Our new forecast for America’s presidential election

Why the polls don’t tell the whole story

Our forecast puts Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck and neck

We relaunch our presidential-election model for a transformed race


Why the 2024 Chicago convention is not the 1968 convention

And the war in Gaza is not Kamala Harris’s Vietnam


Can Kamala Harris win Michigan without Arab-American voters?

The Democratic nominee will have tricky territory to navigate at next week’s party convention

Donald Trump plays with fire in Atlanta

Going after Georgia’s popular Republican governor will do him no good in the state

Is Tim Walz the right vice-presidential running-mate for Kamala Harris?

Progressives like him, but the presidential candidate will need to find ways to win over moderates

Will America’s economy swing the election?



Republicans

How the Trump campaign has become more professional

In Pennsylvania at least, it has upped its ground game

Can Donald Trump win back suburban voters?

In Michigan, Republicans are selling a kinder, gentler Trumpism to college-educated voters. It isn’t sticking yet


Where would Donald Trump and J.D. Vance take America?

The anti-globalist MAGA enthusiast is more consequential than the average veep pick


Why MAGA is the future, not just present, of the GOP

The selection of J.D. Vance means that Donald Trump’s influence may linger

Calling Donald Trump a threat to the rule of law has backfired

It strengthened him politically and led to constitutional protections for presidents, not citizens

J.D. Vance is now the heir apparent to the MAGA movement

What Donald Trump’s vice-presidential pick suggests about how he would govern



Democrats

Tim Walz’s life story is appealing, but his record is complex

Kamala Harris’s running-mate is hard to categorise

Kamala Harris introduces “Coach” Tim Walz, her trusty running-mate

As Republicans seek to brand their rivals as dangerously liberal, Democrats are matching Donald Trump’s public displays of enthusiasm


The Kamala Harris effect on the polls has been dramatic

The latest surveys point to a tightening race


Could the Kamala Harris boost put Florida in play for Democrats?

Some party enthusiasts think so, but realists see re-energised campaigning there as a savvy Florida feint

Why Kamala Harris picked Tim Walz as her running-mate

Compared with a bolder but more divisive alternative, the Minnesota governor was the easier choice

How to decode Kamala Harris’s foreign policy

Expect tougher words on Israel, and continuity on Russia and China



Lexington

The wisdom in calling Donald Trump weird

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are trying to make Democrats normal again


Politics is the law in Texas

A governor’s pardon implies that courts cannot be trusted, just as Donald Trump says


Why the Republicans will convene in a forge of American socialism

Donald Trump has made gains with Wisconsin’s working class, but Joe Biden could still win there

Joe Biden is practising some Clintonian politics

But he needs to do more than crack down on “junk fees” to woo swing voters

Truth Social is a mind-bending win for Donald Trump

And disturbing evidence of how he destabilises reality for Americans



What’s at stake

How the election will shape the Supreme Court

A second Trump administration could lock in a conservative supermajority for decades

What the Chevron ruling means for the next US president

The Supreme Court weakened regulators and created uncertainty, inviting a “tsunami of lawsuits”


How America’s presidential debates are changing this year

Will the Trump-Biden showdowns be an institution’s last gasp, or a new start?


Five months out, Donald Trump has a clear lead

America’s presidential race is no coin flip, says our forecast



Our poll tracker and forecast model

US poll tracker

Donald Trump v Kamala Harris: what the polls say

Our presidential election prediction shows Democrats back in the race

Kamala Harris is neck and neck with Donald Trump, according to our model


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Our daily analysis of the US political news that matters

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A weekly newsletter taking a broad look at the state of American democracy