|
ESPN.com: 2024 | [Print without images] |
 | |
| Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates will make his second MLB start on Friday. |
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
All eyes were on Pittsburgh Pirates rookie, and top-pitching-prospect-at-the-time, Paul Skenes' major league debut last Saturday. Though his run-prevention results (four innings, three runs allowed) were unimpressive, his raw stuff was every bit as tantalizing as advertised. He averaged 100.1 mph with his fastball, he got 14 total swings and misses and he struck out seven Chicago Cubs.
Skenes now faces the very same foe in start No. 2, the Cubs, but this time at Chicago's Wrigley Field, which has similar park factors to the Pirates' home, PNC Park, other than it being much more homer-friendly for righty hitters between the two. With the Cubs having registered four of their six hits across their final six at-bats against Skenes in his debut, one must be wondering whether their newfound familiarity with his stuff will prove a disadvantage for the right-hander?
There's no definitive answer to the question about all pitchers, regardless of level of experience, in back-to-back matchups against the same opponent in close proximity, as my past research supported pitchers possessing an advantage in the rematch across one time span, but an updated analysis then strongly favored hitters.
What about pitchers only getting their feet wet in the big leagues?
Across the 21st century, 43 pitchers made their first two big-league starts against the same opponent, with those starts happening within a week's time span of one another. That group had relatively similar numbers in those starts:
First start: 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17.2 K%, 5.57 IP/GS, 9.3 FPTS/GS
Second start: 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 18.1 K%, 5.31 IP/GS, 8.9 FPTS/GS
If we narrow the scope to merely highly regarded pitching prospects at the time -- generally those who graced a top-100 industry list for the season in question -- then the sample shrinks to 17 pitchers but there's a clear pitching advantage in a rematch:
First start: 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 19.0 K%, 5.61 IP/GS, 9.3 FPTS/GS
Second start: 1.98 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 17.5 K%, 6.14 IP/GS, 14.5 FPTS/GS
Again, a 17-player sample across a near-quarter century cannot provide the definitive answer, but it has always been my belief that a top pitching prospect is most likely to deliver his best rookie-year performances in closest proximity to his debut. Any adjustment period for Skenes should probably arrive closer to late summer, and these next 5-8 starts of his could ultimately be his best in 2024.
The Cubs represents a middling matchup for pitchers, hence Skenes' projection is modest, but I'll take the over on his 7.82 fantasy points.
By Todd Zola
 | |
| Riley Greene of the Detroit Tigers should be in your lineups. |
It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.
FPTS | Team | Pitcher | T | Opp | Rst% | ML | O/U | W% | IP | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14.8 |  | R | WSH | 99.9% | -240 | 7.5 | 59% | 6.3 | 2.2 | 6.6 | |
12.5 |  | L | CWS | 51.8% | -290 | 7.5 | 61% | 5.7 | 2.1 | 5.7 | |
12.4 |  | L | NYM | 74.9% | +100 | 7.5 | 51% | 5.8 | 2.3 | 6.3 | |
12.0 |  | R | @MIA | 22.1% | -120 | 7.5 | 49% | 5.3 | 1.8 | 5.4 | |
11.2 |  | R | @HOU | 98.4% | -110 | 8.5 | 54% | 5.2 | 2.2 | 6.2 | |
10.8 |  | R | MIN | 25.5% | -125 | 8.5 | 55% | 5.6 | 2.5 | 5.8 | |
10.8 |  | R | TB | 67.8% | -170 | 8.5 | 55% | 5.9 | 2.6 | 5.4 | |
10.7 |  | L | @ARI | 99.5% | -140 | 7.5 | 63% | 5.3 | 2.3 | 5.6 | |
10.6 |  | L | COL | 47.2% | -145 | 7.5 | 58% | 5.4 | 2.2 | 5.3 | |
9.9 |  | L | SD | 97.0% | -215 | 8.5 | 68% | 5.5 | 2.4 | 5.0 | |
9.7 |  | R | @BAL | 88.7% | +115 | 8.5 | 54% | 5.5 | 2.7 | 5.1 | |
8.8 |  | R | BOS | 17.0% | +100 | 8.5 | 46% | 5.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | |
8.7 |  | R | @PHI | 4.5% | +200 | 7.5 | 41% | 5.5 | 2.7 | 4.8 | |
8.5 |  | R | MIL | 41.0% | -110 | 8.5 | 46% | 5.0 | 2.6 | 5.9 | |
8.0 |  | L | OAK | 92.5% | -195 | 8.5 | 51% | 5.5 | 3.2 | 5.7 | |
8.0 |  | L | CIN | 17.7% | -195 | 8.5 | 47% | 5.1 | 2.4 | 4.8 | |
7.9 |  | R | @STL | 35.6% | -120 | 8.5 | 54% | 5.4 | 2.7 | 4.4 | |
7.8 |  | R | @CHC | 80.6% | -110 | 7.5 | 50% | 5.1 | 2.6 | 5.0 | |
7.7 |  | R | @LAD | 10.9% | +165 | 8.5 | 53% | 4.8 | 2.3 | 4.5 | |
7.6 |  | R | PIT | 1.4% | -110 | 7.5 | 50% | 5.2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | |
7.4 |  | R | @NYY | 1.0% | +235 | 7.5 | 39% | 5.0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | |
7.3 |  | L | @TEX | 19.0% | +145 | 9.5 | 56% | 5.5 | 3.1 | 4.7 | |
7.2 |  | R | @SF | 1.3% | +125 | 7.5 | 42% | 5.1 | 2.6 | 4.4 | |
6.8 |  | R | @CLE | 4.4% | +105 | 8.5 | 45% | 4.8 | 2.3 | 4.2 | |
6.5 |  | L | SEA | 23.5% | -135 | 8.5 | 46% | 5.0 | 3.1 | 4.8 | |
6.2 |  | L | LAA | 12.2% | -170 | 9.5 | 44% | 4.7 | 2.8 | 4.9 | |
6.1 |  | L | @TOR | 0.6% | +145 | 8.5 | 45% | 5.1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | |
4.7 |  | L | @KC | 0.5% | +165 | 8.5 | 49% | 5.2 | 3.6 | 4.0 | |
4.5 |  | R | DET | 1.0% | +120 | 7.5 | 37% | 4.8 | 3.2 | 4.0 | |
2.5 |  | R | @ATL | 0.8% | +180 | 8.5 | 32% | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.