I have now ranked the top 100 MLB prospects and all 30 MLB farm systems heading into the 2024 season along with taking a deeper dive into the best prospects on every National League team earlier this week. Now it is time to wrap up by ranking the top prospects on every American League team.
A quick refresher on a key term you'll see throughout the team lists: future value, shortened to FV hereafter, sums up the value of a player into one number. It's graded on the 20-80 scouting scale. A low-end everyday player is a 50, which correlates to 2.0 WAR; a well-above-average position player, No. 3 starter or high-end closer is a 60, or somewhere around 3.0 WAR. I refrain from tossing out an 80 on minor leaguers because that would imply one is expected to be one of the top players in baseball. FV also scales to trade value, so a 50 FV in the low minors has a wide range of potential outcomes but has trade value similar to a big-league-ready everyday player with lower upside.
While the Top 100 is exactly that long, I rank every prospect who gets a 45 or better FV grade, so that rank is included here in the team lists. For every team, there are reports on the top 10 prospects and then varying numbers of others depending on the strength of the system. Broadly, it'll be everyone better than a 40 FV, then handpicked interesting prospects who are 40 FVs. For reference, a 40 FV is what I'd term a "common" prospect in old-school baseball card parlance. A 40 FV prospect is not without value but every organization has and has access to (players drafted in Rounds 3 through 5 of the draft are basically all 40 FVs right when they sign) many of these players every year.
This year, I've left off the 35-plus FV tier from the rankings, as there were a number of these fringe prospects on each team, but they rarely matter in the season in which I rank them in that tier, so I chose to focus my time and words on the better prospects. For farm rankings continuity, I still ranked players in this tier.
Now on to my 2024 AL rankings.
Jump to a franchise:
AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB| TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: HOU | LAA | OAK | SEA | TEX
More ESPN+ 2024 prospect coverage: Top 100 MLB prospects | Bold predictions
Team-by-team rankings: American League | National League | Ranking every farm system
AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles
1st overall
2nd in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$371 million total value
1. Jackson Holliday, SS, 65 FV (1st on the Top 100)
2. Coby Mayo, 3B, 55 FV (19)
3. Samuel Basallo, C, 55 FV (27)
4. Heston Kjerstad, RF, 50 FV (48)
5. Colton Cowser, CF, 50 FV (50)
6. Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, 50 FV (94)
7. Cade Povich, LHP, 50 FV (119)
8. Dylan Beavers, RF, 45+ FV (137)
9. Jud Fabian, CF, 45+ FV (150)
10. Leandro Arias, SS, 45 FV
11. Matthew Etzel, CF, 45 FV
12. Seth Johnson, RHP, 45 FV
13. Connor Norby, 2B, 45 FV
14. Braylin Tavera, CF, 40+ FV
15. Max Wagner, 3B, 40+ FV
16. Luis De Leon, LHP, 40+ FV
17. Chayce McDermott, RHP, 40+ FV
18. Jackson Baumeister, RHP, 40 FV
19. Josh Liranzo, 3B, 40 FV
20. Kiefer Lord, RHP, 40 FV
21. Trace Bright, RHP, 40 FV
22. Jake Cunningham, CF, 40 FV
23. Luis Almeyda, SS, 40 FV
24. Emilio Sanchez, SS, 40 FV
25. Mac Horvath, 2B, 40 FV
26. John Rhodes, RF, 40 FV
27. Frederick Bencosme, SS, 40 FV
28. Tavian Josenberger, CF, 40 FV
29. Justin Armbruester, RHP, 40 FV
30. Carlos Tavera, RHP, 40 FV
31. Billy Cook, RF, 40 FV
32. Keegan Gillies, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: SS Gunnar Henderson, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, 2B Jordan Westburg, RF Kyle Stowers
2024 impact: Holliday
Above 40 FV breakout: Etzel
40 FV breakout: Cunningham
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
Beavers was the 33rd pick in the 2022 draft and has had a similar adjustment to pro ball as fellow O's prospect Coby Mayo. Beavers looked like a power-over-hit type at Cal with an exaggerated hand move in his swing but 30-homer upside. He has dialed things in a bit to prioritize contact and approach with just 11 homers last season and exit velos more in line with 15-20 homer upside. He is a threat to be big league ready late in 2024 with above-average tools across the board, including speed that leads to passable center-field defense and helped him steal 27 bases last season.
Fabian was a very well-known prep prospect who enrolled at Florida before he was subject to the draft as a prep, but was a second- or third-rounder for some. He had an up-and-down college career due to extreme whiff issues, but grew into plus power and plus defender in center field. He has settled into the familiar center fielder archetype of low average, solid patience, good power style of center fielder but we still need to see if he's a .250 hitter with 20-25 homers or a .210 hitter who is more of a fourth outfielder.
On the other hand, Etzel was completely unknown to most teams before he broke out in the MLB Draft League in 2022 after playing at a Texas junior college. He turned down the low-six-figure interest that clubs mustered because of his short track record and went to Southern Miss but had just an OK spring and eventually went in the 10th round of the 2023 draft (ranked 230th on my final rankings). Things clicked in pro ball, and in 30 games up to High-A, Etzel hit .323/.455/.510 with 12 extra-base hits, 21 stolen bases and a near-even strikeout-to-walk ratio with underling metrics to match. He'll be 22 years old as the minor league season begins and might go from 10th-rounder to a real prospect in Double-A in under a year.
Cunningham was another personal favorite of mine in the 2023 draft (ranked 111th, and I called the Orioles his perfect spot) who went a bit later than I expected, at 154th overall in the fifth round. He played only 14 pro games after signing, so we don't have a big sample yet, but he's 6-foot-4, 205 pounds with plus speed and plus raw power, so if he can hit a little bit, he would leap up these rankings. Arias was a 40 FV on last year's list but jumped up a tier thanks to a solid U.S. debut, with a flat strikeout-to-walk rate and improved in-game power, but he still has the same hit-first profile and above-average glove at shortstop. Norby is almost the exact opposite, as a big-league-ready second baseman without much in the way of standout raw tools. He's a fine defensive second baseman who should peak right around average offensive production, with a 2024 MLB debut likely.
Povich made last year's Top 100 and largely held serve on the field but moved down a bit because I thought he'd have a breakthrough and he merely made just some progress. His walk rate isn't very indicative of his command, more of his style of pitching as some advanced metrics of rival teams give him average big league command right now. He has a bevy of slightly to clearly above-average pitches but not many true plus qualities -- look for a 2024 debut from him. Johnson was traded while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery with the Rays in 2022 and got back on the mound late in 2023. His above-average stuff appears to be intact and now at age 25 with only one appearance above A-Ball, he might be ready to take a big step forward in 2024. De Leon is a riser to get on board with now, as he has made only nine appearances in a full-season league but has three above-average-to-plus pitches coming from the left side. His command is just OK now, but he's early enough in his pro career to imagine him becoming a starter.
Boston Red Sox
13th overall
9th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$223 million total value
1. Roman Anthony, RF, 55 FV (23rd on the Top 100)
2. Marcelo Mayer, SS, 55 FV (28)
3. Kyle Teel, C, 50 FV (61)
4. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, 45+ FV (152)
5. Wilyer Abreu, RF, 45+ FV (160)
6. Miguel Bleis, CF, 45 FV
7. Nazzan Zanetello, SS, 45 FV
8. Blaze Jordan, 1B, 45 FV
9. Nick Yorke, 2B, 45 FV
10. Yoeilin Cespedes, SS, 45 FV
11. Mikey Romero, SS, 45 FV
12. Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP, 45 FV
13. Luis Perales, RHP, 45 FV
14. Richard Fitts, RHP, 40+ FV
15. Franklin Arias, SS, 40 FV
16. Brooks Brannon, C, 40 FV
17. Chase Meidroth, 2B, 40 FV
18. Nathan Hickey, C, 40 FV
19. David Hamilton, SS, 40 FV
20. Dalton Rogers, LHP, 40 FV
21. Johanfran Garcia, C, 40 FV
22. Antonio Anderson, SS, 40 FV
23. Yordanny Monegro, RHP, 40 FV
24. Brandon Walter, LHP, 40 FV
25. Luis Guerrero, RHP, 40 FV
26. Brainer Bonaci, SS, 40 FV
27. Angel Bastardo, LHP, 40 FV
28. Kristian Campbell, 2B, 40 FV
29. Justin Riemer, SS, 40 FV
30. Justin Slaten, RHP, 40 FV
31. Eddinson Paulino, 3B, 40 FV
32. Allan Castro, CF, 40 FV
33. Bryan Mata, RHP, 40 FV
34. Isaac Coffey, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: 1B Triston Casas, 2B Vaughn Grissom, 2B Enmanuel Valdez, LHP Chris Murphy, RHP Isaiah Campbell, RHP Greg Weissert
2024 impact: Abreu
Above 40 FV breakout: Cespedes
40 FV breakout: Brannon
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
Rafaela is the kind of player I have trouble evaluating, but I think everyone else has trouble with him as well. He has some very clear standout abilities as an easy plus runner and defender in center field (and maybe some other positions, too). He also has above-average bat-to-ball ability, 20ish homer upside and has posted those kinds of numbers in the minors, so he seems to have a really high floor and ceiling. The issue is that the way he does it at the plate -- with lots of chase at 40%, roughly 15% more than average -- means that the whole offensive house of cards could come crashing down at higher levels. He hit really well at Triple-A last year but then wasn't good in a 28-game big league sample. So, it would be easy to write him off as the type of player who won't reach his upside and will just be a solid role player -- but if he does in the big leagues this year what he has done at every level in the minors, he'll be getting Rookie of the Year buzz. Michael Harris' rookie year (35% chase rate in the big leagues) had some of these questions, then he lowered that figure to 29% in 2023, a sustainable number, proving it can be done. I'm hedging here by keeping Rafaela just off of the Top 100 but ranked in between the bad outcome (a 45 FV defensive specialist with some tools, in the 200-300 area of the overall list) and good ones (a 55 FV expected ROY front-runner, ranking 20-45 on the Top 100).
Abreu is much easier to project and looks like he'll break camp with a role on the big league team. He's a good corner outfielder who can fill in if needed in center field and is quick enough to steal double-digit bases. At the plate, he's basically 50- or 55-grade at everything, which is a little light for a corner outfielder but could add up to a solid everyday player with his baserunning and defensive value. Jordan and Yorke were both 2020 high school picks and have frequently been playing together through the minors. Because Jordan is a solid defensive first baseman and right-handed hitter while Yorke is a fringy second baseman and right-handed hitter, they offer similar value on the defensive spectrum, as well. Jordan seems to be tracking for a 2025 debut with, like Abreu, slightly above-average offensive skills while Yorke is, as you guessed, basically in the same place. They aren't quite good enough to project that they'll be standing next to each other for a decade on contending teams, but their careers will be compared for a long time, at least.
Bleis was 95th on last year's Top 100, and he seemed poised for a breakout until shoulder surgery ended his season after 31 games. He's healthy and ready to pick up where he left off, as a defensive outfield tweener with electric bat speed and 30-homer upside. Cespedes signed for $1.4 million last January and had a strong pro debut in the DSL, hitting six homers and a .392 OBP in 46 games. He'll stick in the middle infield, but I'm leaning toward second base right now, with a hit-over-power approach, and he'll need to tighten his strike zone a bit. Zanetello was a standout in athletic testing in the 2023 prep class and made enough progress in on-field ability to land a well-over-slot $3 million bonus in the second round. He's a plus runner with an above-average arm that fits somewhere up the middle and has above-average potential across the board at the plate.
Fitts was acquired from the Yankees in December as part of the Alex Verdugo trade. He has above-average command, an above-average fastball and an above-average slider, so he's at least a useful multi-inning player if not a full-fledged starter. Perales and Gonzalez are a little harder to pin to a role as they both have below-average command right now but plus, mid-90s fastballs that will fit in any role. Both were just added to the 40-man roster and have off-speed stuff that plays around average at the moment, so the clock is ticking on being able to stash them in the minors to try to develop them as starters.
New York Yankees
6th overall
2nd in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$252 million total value
1. Jasson Dominguez, CF, 55 FV (21st on the Top 100)
2. Spencer Jones, RF, 50 FV (56)
3. Roderick Arias, SS, 50 FV (60)
4. Will Warren, RHP, 50 FV (69)
5. Chase Hampton, RHP, 50 FV (81)
6. Austin Wells, C, 50 FV (82)
7. George Lombard Jr., SS, 45+ FV (123)
8. Henry Lalane, LHP, 45+ FV (133)
9. Brock Selvidge, LHP, 45+ FV (134)
10. Brando Mayea, CF, 45+ FV (136)
11. Jared Serna, 2B, 45 FV
12. Francisco Vilorio, CF, 45 FV
13. Everson Pereira, CF, 45 FV
14. Jorbit Vivas, 2B, 45 FV
15. Yoendrys Gomez, RHP, 45 FV
16. Agustin Ramirez, C, 45 FV
17. Carlos Lagrange, RHP, 40+ FV
18. Ben Rice, C, 40+ FV
19. Enmanuel Tejeda, SS, 40 FV
20. Edgleen Perez, C, 40 FV
21. Keiner Delgado, 2B, 40 FV
22. Roc Riggio, 2B, 40 FV
23. Chalniel Arias, RHP, 40 FV
24. Clayton Beeter, RHP, 40 FV
25. Luis Serna, RHP, 40 FV
26. Kyle Carr, LHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: SS Anthony Volpe, SS Oswald Peraza, 2B Oswaldo Cabrera
2024 impact: Warren
Above 40 FV breakout: Lombard Jr.
40 FV breakout: Lagrange
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
In the muddled group of prep position players in the back half of the 2023 first round, the two names floating to the top right before draft day in terms of confidence from scouts I trust the most were Colt Emerson (22nd overall pick) and Lombard (26th pick). Emerson shot up prospect rankings after signing, and some think Lombard will see a similar rise in the coming years. For what it's worth, his little brother, Jacob, is arguably the top prep prospect in the 2026 draft class and his dad, George, played in the big leagues for six years before becoming a coach. Lombard is an infielder who looks like a shortstop now, but given his physical projection, he might work his way to second or third base. Offensively, he has above-average tools at the plate and on the bases.
Mayea was in the discussion for top prospect in the international class that signed last January, signing for $4.4 million. He has a strong debut in the DSL with a .382 OBP, a near-even strikeout-to-walk ratio, three homers and 22 stolen bases in 38 games. He's a no-doubt center fielder with plus speed and a plus arm along with a hit-over-power approach right now. The question here is how much power will be in his game, and I can see him getting up around 20 homers, but he looks more like a 10-12 homer type in his current form. Vilorio is in the top tier of prospects in the class that signed last month and got $1.75 million. He's 6-foot-3 and a plus runner with plus power potential, so his pro debut will be watched closely this summer because his raw tools are among the best you'll see at this age.
Serna signed out of Mexico at age 17 in 2019 and had to wait until 2021 to make his pro debut but has performed well at every level. He's a plus runner and strong defender at second base, playing there because of a below-average arm. Serna has plus bat-to-ball ability, solid-to-average raw power and feel in games, so he has clear everyday upside if he can cut his chase rate just a bit as he gets to the upper minors. Vivas was acquired from the Dodgers this winter and has only one option left but should be big league ready at some point in 2024 because of his plus on-base skills and 15-18 homer upside from the left side. Riggio is a similar sort of player, a stout left-hitting second baseman who was a fourth-rounder last summer, but he offers a lower batting average with a tick more raw power. Ramirez was added to the 40-man roster this year, so he has three years to shore up his catching before he has to stick in the big leagues. His plus raw power and above-average bat control offer upside that will play anywhere if he harnesses them.
Lalane and Lagrange are often grouped together because they are both 6-foot-7, pitched in the DSL in 2022 and in the domestic complex league in 2023, and throw really hard. Lalane is the better of the two, still 19 years old and sitting at 93-96 mph from the left side, and his changeup and slider both flash above-average potential. He has starter traits, but he's really tall and it's really early, so I'll be following him closely. Lagrange turns 21 in May and is right-handed, and right now his command looks more suited for relief. That said, he sits around 96-98 mph with bat-missing life at the top of the strike zone and a breaking ball that flashes plus, so he has legitimate closer upside.
Selvidge took a jump forward in 2023, with his average velocity jumping from 90.3 mph to 92.6 mph, more in line with what he showed on the summer showcase circuit in 2020 when he had late-first-round buzz. A poor spring meant the Yankees were able to land him for $1.5 million in the third round, and now he has No. 3/No. 4 starter upside as a 6-foot-3 lefty and comfortably projects for three above-average pitches and starter command. Early buzz is Gomez, who made a brief MLB debut in 2023, is looking strong in Florida; he has three above-average pitches and two more average ones along with enough command for multiple innings if not as a true starter.
Tampa Bay Rays
7th overall
15th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$249 million total value
1. Junior Caminero, 3B, 60 FV (3)
2. Carson Williams, SS, 60 FV (13)
3. Curtis Mead, 3B, 50 FV (47)
4. Xavier Isaac, 1B, 50 FV (62)
5. Brayden Taylor, SS, 45+ FV (146)
6. Adrian Santana, SS, 45 FV
7. Colton Ledbetter, CF, 45 FV
8. Osleivis Basabe, SS, 45 FV
9. Dom Keegan, C, 45 FV
10. Brailer Guerrero, RF, 45 FV
11. Cooper Kinney, 3B, 40+ FV
12. Willy Vasquez, 3B, 40 FV
13. Tre Morgan, 1B, 40 FV
14. Chandler Simpson, CF, 40 FV
15. Mason Montgomery, LHP, 40 FV
16. Santiago Suarez, RHP, 40 FV
17. Carlos Colmenarez, SS, 40 FV
18. Mason Auer, CF, 40 FV
19. Jose Urbina, RHP, 40 FV
20. Yoniel Curet, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: RHP Taj Bradley, 1B Jonathan Aranda, RHP Ryan Pepiot, SS Jose Caballero, CF Jonny DeLuca, C Rene Pinto, 2B Richie Palacios, RHP Kevin Kelly
2024 impact: Caminero
Above 40 FV breakout: Keegan
40 FV breakout: Morgan
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
I like the Rays' 2023 draft class, led by Taylor, Santana, Ledbetter and Morgan. Taylor is a polished, left-handed hitting infielder with great feel to get to his solid-average raw power and a clear infield fit. It's unclear if he'll be a shortstop long term (I vote not), but he will land at second or third base (likely third) if he isn't. The real questions are if what Taylor does at the plate will produce a .250 or .230 average and if he'll continue to get to all his power at higher levels. Santana is an electric switch-hitting shortstop with 80-grade speed but not much power, so he'll need to show he can hit 10-12 homers to keep pitchers honest. Ledbetter doesn't have a true plus tool but is average or slightly above across the board with the main questions being if he can stick in center field long term and how much offensive impact he'll have if he can't. Morgan is a first baseman who can really hit and has a good approach but doesn't get to his raw power in games due to his general approach. He's athletic enough to play corner outfield as well and if he can post 15-18 homers annually, Morgan will be a good every-day player.
Basabe has plus bat-to-ball ability and gap power but chases too much to project as a true everyday middle infielder right now. Keegan is my pick to click in this range as he's improving behind the plate (at least average in throwing and framing in 2023) as I was hoping he would when I ranked him 77th in the 2022 draft before he lasted until the 134 pick. Scouts laud his makeup and he's always been a solid hitter with some power, he just matters more as a prospect if he's a dependable catcher. Guerrero signed for $3.7 million in last January's signing class as the Rays saw a rare lefty hit/power combo in a classic right-field profile. He played only seven games in his pro debut but posted some goofy exit velos, so we'll learn more about his hit ability and in-game power in 2024.
The depth -- particularly the pitching depth -- of this system has really thinned out in the past season or so. Montgomery is probably the best of the pitching bunch coming in at 16th-ranked overall in the system. He's a lefty with above-average stuff but fringy command that might limit him to shorter outings and he'll be involved in some way in the Rays' annual 40-man roster transaction jubilee next winter. Suarez sits 92-95 mph and has big league command of the pitch already despite just turning 19 years old. He has solid-average off-speed pitches and starter projection that could help him become a clear top pitching prospect in the system in 2024. Urbina skipped the DSL after signing instead coming straight to the United States, as a projectable 6-3 righty who has been up to 98 mph and flashes an above-average breaking ball.
Toronto Blue Jays
24th overall
15th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$126 million total value
1. Ricky Tiedeman, LHP, 55 FV (24th on the Top 100)
2. Orelvis Martinez, 3B, 50 FV (114)
3. Brandon Barriera, LHP, 45+ FV (142)
4. Arjun Nimmala, SS, 45 FV
5. Addison Barger, 3B, 45 FV
6. Leo Jimenez, SS, 45 FV
7. Josh Kasevich, SS, 45 FV
8. Alan Roden, LF, 40+ FV
9. Enmanuel Bonilla, RF, 40+ FV
10. Connor Cooke, RHP, 40+ FV
11. Mason Fluharty, LHP, 40+ FV
12. Adam Macko, LHP, 40+ FV
13. Spencer Horwitz, 1B, 40 FV
14. Chad Dallas, RHP, 40 FV
15. Landen Maroudis, RHP, 40 FV
16. Hayden Juenger, RHP, 40 FV
17. Hagen Danner, RHP, 40 FV
18. Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, 40 FV
19. Damiano Palmegiani, 3B, 40 FV
20. Yosver Zulueta, RHP, 40 FV
21. Kendry Rojas, LHP, 40 FV
22. Cade Doughty, 3B, 40 FV
23. Tucker Toman, 3B, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: SS Otto Lopez, RF Nathan Lukes, RHP Bowden Francis
2024 impact: Tiedemann
Above 40 FV breakout: Bonilla
40 FV breakout: Maroudis
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
I went deep on Barriera before the draft, focusing on his decision to end his high school season early and also the long odds that first-round high school pitchers face in general. He made only seven appearances in 2023 due to minor injuries but has frontline potential, so the breakout could be coming in 2024. Maroudis is another seven-figure bonus prep pitcher from Florida, in his case from the 2023 draft. Maroudis was a reliever who also played shortstop on a loaded high school team but the traits are here for above-average stuff and starter command.
Cooke didn't make last year's Blue Jays top 38 but then had a true breakout season jumping from A-Ball to Triple-A with wild strikeout rates at each stop. He sits 94-97 mph with good shape, mixing in a plus slider and average changeup with better command than you'd expect from a one-inning reliever. He'll need to be added to the 40-man roster after the 2024 season so he seems like a strong bet to make his big league debut in the second half. Fluharty's best pitch is a plus 88-91 mph cutter, along with a plus 80-82 mph slider that's plus and he mixes in a 90-92 mph fastball to keep hitters honest. He's also pitching in short relief but could carve out a long career throwing a bunch of cutters and sliders. Macko has the stuff to start but had a number of injuries earlier in his career along with showing fringy command and now he has three minor league options left, so he could get fast-tracked in shorter roles. He just had his healthiest pro season, throwing 86 innings, and has four above-average pitches headlined by a bat-missing 92-95 mph heater.
Martinez, Barger and Jimenez are all big league-ready infielders. Martinez has plus raw power along with pretty solid contact and the pitch selection skills to use those tools in games, hitting 28 bombs in the upper minors as a 21-year-old last season. He has the arm to play anywhere on the diamond but is just OK in the infield, so Toronto will have to look for ways to get his bat in the lineup. Barger isn't that different in terms of not offering a ton defensively but being a passable infielder who is a "nice to have" sort of player for a good team. He's an above-average hitter with a solid approach and plus raw power but needs to lift the ball a bit more to get to it all in games. Jimenez is a clear hit-over-power shortstop who can defend well but is more a 6-10 homers per year threat who is near the utility player/low-end starter borderline and leaning more toward utility at the moment.
Kasevich and Roden fit together as extreme contact and OBP merchants who have some holes in their profiles. In 121 pro games, Kasevich has drawn 49 walks to 50 strikeouts but hit just four home runs. That paints much of the picture: he has a good approach and great bat-to-ball ability, but mostly just doubles power. He's also an adequate shortstop, but really is more of a second or third baseman who can fill in at shortstop if needed. In 140 pro games, Roden has drawn 85 walks to 77 strikeouts, but hit just 11 homers. Roden hits left-handed but is a corner outfielder, so he's a notch less of a prospect than Kasevich, likely projecting as a platoon corner type.
I also went deep on Nimmala's background before the draft: the 20th overall pick in the 2023 draft is a second generation Indian-American who grew up playing more cricket than baseball. He has huge tools as a potential shortstop with 30-homer upside who was among the youngest prospects in his prep class -- but also comes with real hit risk that could undermine that upside. He's played just nine pro games, so 2024 will be our first real chance to see what he looks like against pro pitching. Bonilla fits broadly in the same bucket due to his amateur background and 30-plus homer upside. He signed for $4.1 million in last January's international signing class and is also a right-handed hitter that also comes with some hit risk.
AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
20th overall
26th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$172 million total value
1. Colson Montgomery, SS, 60 FV (8th on the Top 100)
2. Noah Schultz, LHP, 50 FV (57)
3. Bryan Ramos, 3B, 50 FV (90)
4. Edgar Quero, C, 50 FV (105)
5. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, 45 FV
6. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, 45 FV
7. Jake Eder, LHP, 45 FV
8. Nick Nastrini, RHP, 45 FV
9. Jordan Leasure, RHP, 40+ FV
10. Grant Taylor, RHP, 40 FV
11. Ryan Burrowes, SS, 40 FV
12. Prelander Berroa, RHP, 40 FV
13. Zach DeLoach, RF, 40 FV
14. Peyton Pallette, RHP, 40 FV
15. George Wolkow, RF, 40 FV
16. Jose Rodriguez, SS, 40 FV
17. Ky Bush, LHP, 40 FV
18. Alex Speas, RHP, 40 FV
19. Seth Keener, RHP, 40 FV
20. Jacob Burke, CF, 40 FV
21. Maximo Martinez, RHP, 40 FV
22. Calvin Harris, C, 40 FV
23. Javier Mogollon, 2B, 40 FV
24. Shane Drohan, LHP, 40 FV
25. Loidel Chappeli, 2B, 40 FV
26. Tanner McDougal, RHP, 40 FV
27. Eric Adler, RHP, 40 FV
28. Sean Burke, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: C Korey Lee, RF Oscar Colas, LHP Jared Shuster, RF Dominic Fletcher, SS Lenyn Sosa, RHP Deivi Garcia
2024 impact: Montgomery
Above 40 FV breakout: Schultz
40 FV breakout: Taylor
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
The industry was confused by the recent trades made by new GM Chris Getz. To land outfielders Dominic Fletcher and Zach DeLoach, both coming off decent seasons in Triple-A but seen as extra players on a good team, he traded a potentially useful 21-year-old starting pitcher in Triple-A (Cristian Mena to Arizona) and took a big downgrade in his bullpen by swapping out Gregory Santos (1.6 WAR in 2023) for Prelander Berroa (a walk rate over 5 per 9 innings for the last two seasons in the minors). Maybe they're selling high on Santos and getting some young players to give this year's big league at-bats to instead of non-descript veterans.
Now the question becomes where will Getz take the White Sox from here? It's been a frustrating couple of decades for their fans -- since Kenny Williams was named GM in 2000 (he left the organization last October), there was the huge success of a World Series in 2005, but just three playoff wins in the other 23 seasons. The big league team is awful, the system isn't that good and the moves so far by the new regime (led by an in-house hire from the old regime) aren't inspiring, but it's still early.
Quero was acquired at the deadline last summer as the headliner in the Lucas Giolito package and he is a passable catcher at the moment who can hit and has a good approach. He has 15-18 homer upside but had a bad 2023 season with only six long balls. To be an everyday player, he'll need to either regain that in-game power of 2022 (17 homers) or improve to be a reliable defender. Gonzalez was a consensus top-of-the-first-round prospect at Ole Miss entering his 2023 draft spring but didn't inspire confidence in scouts all season. Some didn't think he was a shortstop (I think he's fine) and others thought his solid average BP power didn't show up in games often. He surprisingly slid to the 15th overall pick and then his exit velos in pro ball soon after were poor, so Gonzalez is one to monitor closely in 2024 -- with similar questions as Quero.
Cannon and Taylor were recent high draft picks while Eder, Nastrini and Leasure were all acquired in deadline deals last summer. Cannon has held serve from his amateur report in 2022, which was a bevy of 55-or-so grade pitches and starter command with an approach more focused on ground balls than strikeouts. Taylor had late-first-round buzz entering the 2023 spring at LSU with a more power-based version of Cannon's scouting report but missed the season with Tommy John surgery; the White Sox took him in the second round. Eder was acquired for Jake Burger just after returning from his Tommy John surgery. This will be a big season to establish what his big league career will look like, but he had Top 100 buzz with three above-average pitches before blowing out his elbow. Nastrini was a later round find by the Dodgers who is probably a reliever but he can go multiple innings and has a plus fastball/breaker combo. Leasure also came over from the Dodgers and was a very late bloomer, likely limited to short relief but he has a plus-plus 96-99 mph heater and plus slider, so he could fit in the late innings.
Wolkow is exciting as a 6-7 lefty hitter who just turned 18 years old and has 80 raw power potential that might be a 70 right now. For better or worse, he's drawing comps to Joey Gallo for his size and raw tools along with his potential to post maddeningly low batting averages. Drohan was taken this winter in the Rule 5 Draft from Boston after taking a big step forward in 2023 when he'd seemingly plateaued for a few years before that. He'll fit better in the bullpen where his raw stuff will play up in short stints; he'll hit the mid-90s at times, relies on an above-average changeup and a smattering of solid breaking pitches.
Cleveland Guardians
19th overall
15th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$187 million total value
1. Chase DeLauter, RF, 55 FV (42nd on the Top 100)
2. Brayan Rocchio, SS, 50 FV (79)
3. Kyle Manzardo, 1B, 50 FV (83)
4. Daniel Espino, RHP, 50 FV (92)
5. Juan Brito, 2B, 45+ FV (170)
6. Jaison Chourio, RF, 45 FV
7. George Valera, RF, 45 FV
8. Welbyn Francisca, SS, 40+ FV
9. Angel Martinez, SS, 40+ FV
10. Ralphy Velazquez, C, 40+ FV
11. Kahlil Watson, SS, 40+ FV
12. Petey Halpin, CF, 40+ FV
13. Angel Genao, SS, 40 FV
14. Jake Fox, 2B, 40 FV
15. Robert Arias, CF, 40 FV
16. Alex Clemmey, LHP, 40 FV
17. Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B, 40 FV
18. Joey Cantillo, LHP, 40 FV
19. Parker Messick, LHP, 40 FV
20. C.J. Kayfus, RF, 40 FV
21. Milan Tolentino, SS, 40 FV
22. Jose Tena, SS, 40 FV
23. Justin Campbell, RHP, 40 FV
24. Dayan Frias, SS, 40 FV
25. Johnathan Rodriguez, RF, 40 FV
26. Wuilfredo Antunez, CF, 40 FV
27. Will Dion, LHP, 40 FV
28. Andrew Walters, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: C Bo Naylor, RHP Tanner Bibee, LHP Logan Allen, RHP Gavin Williams, 2B Tyler Freeman, SS Gabriel Arias, RF Will Brennan, RHP Xzavion Curry, RHP Hunter Gaddis, LHP Tim Herrin
2024 impact: Rocchio
Above 40 FV breakout: Chourio
40 FV breakout: Clemmey
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
It may sting a bit for the Guardians that they traded their 2016 second-round pick Nolan Jones before the 2023 season and he then posted a 3.7 WAR season for the Rockies, but the return was Brito who is also a solid prospect. He frankly fits the Guardians style of player, a hit-first type with a good approach and defensive value. Brito projects for plus OBPs and average power (15-18 homers) while being a fine but not great defensive second baseman who should get a look in 2024.
Valera was a big-bonus international signing in 2017 who now has only one minor league option year left, so he'll need to establish himself in the big leagues this season. He's a late-count hitter who racks up lots of walks, strikeouts and home runs so he can be more prone to streakiness or the vagaries of ball in play luck. On the upside, he could hit 25 homers and post a strong OBP. Velazquez was a well-known prep prospect from Southern California who was teetering on the wrong side of the catcher/first base spectrum. The good news is even his biggest detractors concede that the lefty hitter can really hit: he's above average at everything in the batter's box with plus raw power that he gets to in games. It'll be a bit of a letdown if he's just a true first baseman since he was the 23rd overall pick, but he may hit enough that it won't matter
You may recognize the name Chourio from the No. 2 prospect on the Top 100, recently extended for $82 million Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio. Jaison is his little brother and he is broadly similar, but not quite the same level of talent right now. Jaison is an average runner who fits in right field with above-average bat control and the raw power potential to potentially profile as an everyday player there. He's a switch hitter who made it to Low-A as an 18-year-old after tearing up the domestic complex league with more walks than strikeouts. He'll need to lift the ball more to tap into his power in games, but it's still very early. Speaking of which, Francisca made his pro debut in the DSL last year after signing for $1.4 million in January. He is the familiar Cleveland type of shorter switch-hitter who fits up the middle, but doesn't have overwhelming physical tools. Francisca can really hit and has a strong approach, so he's a candidate to move up this list with his U.S. debut in 2024.
Cleveland collects a lot of high floor/lower upside players but two recent acquisitions stand out for their loud tools and big upside. At draft time, Clemmey was a 17-year-old 6-foot-6 left-handed pitcher who had touched 100 mph with an all-arms-and-legs delivery. He also mixed in a plus breaking ball but his command (as you'd expect with his long limbs and recent velo spike) was sorta all over the place. There's frontline upside if Cleveland's pitching dev machine can tease average command out of Clemmey. In the Rule 5 draft, Cleveland selected De Los Santos from Arizona, a corner type with explosive plus-plus raw power that chases too much and looks out of control at types. He'll have to stick the whole year in the big leagues for Cleveland to keep his rights and this isn't really the kind of player that does that, so I'm fascinated to see what the Guardians can do with him.
Detroit Tigers
3rd overall
8th in quality depth (prospects over 40)
$318 million total value
1. Jackson Jobe, RHP, 60 (10th on the Top 100)
2. Max Clark, CF, 60 (15)
3. Colt Keith, 3B, 55 (40)
4. Parker Meadows, CF, 50 (45)
5. Jace Jung, 2B, 50 (63)
6. Kevin McGonigle, SS, 50 (95)
7. Ty Madden, RHP, 50 (107)
8. Troy Melton, RHP, 45+ (130)
9. Dillon Dingler, C, 45
10. Justyn-Henry Malloy, LF, 45
11. Hao-Yu Lee, 2B, 40+
12. Tyler Mattison, RHP, 40+
13. Sawyer Gipson-Long, RHP, 40+
14. Brant Hurter, LHP, 40+
15. Paul Wilson, LHP, 40
16. Max Anderson, 2B, 40
17. Josue Briceno, C, 40
18. Peyton Graham, SS, 40
19. Wilmer Flores, RHP, 40
20. Keider Montero, RHP, 40
21. Dylan Smith, RHP, 40
22. Roberto Campos, RF, 40
23. Jaden Hamm, RHP, 40
24. Enrique Jimenez, C, 40
25. Wenceel Perez, SS, 40
26. Danny Serretti, SS, 40
Notable 2023 graduations: LF Kerry Carpenter, RHP Reese Olson, LHP Joey Wentz, RHP Mason Englert, LHP Tyler Holton, RHP Brendan White
2024 impact: Keith
Above 40 breakout: Mattison
40 breakout: Briceno
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
Madden is a good example of focusing on what a player can do rather than picking holes in him and secondly trusting your player dev to dial in something when the important characteristics like athleticism and coachability are present. He had mid-first-round buzz in the 2021 draft but lasted until the 32nd overall pick because his approach angle (steep from a high arm slot) didn't fit his fastball shape (riding four-seamer at the top of the zone). The rest of the profile fit mid-rotation starter projection and still largely does, but with slight delivery adjustments, his fastball now plays at or slightly above its 94-97 mph velocity.
Melton didn't have his price met as a young-for-the-class prospect in the 2021 draft, then went in the fourth round to the Tigers. In retrospect, he was being picked apart too much by scouts when he was a 6-4 righty with four pitches that flashed average to above and mostly for strikes. Like Madden, he's also improved in pro ball with above average command of solid average stuff so Melton may also be eating innings soon. Mattison was a small-school power arm in that same 2021 draft from Bryant and he's been used almost exclusively as a reliever in pro ball but he's also really improved. His 94-96 mph heater plays well above its velocity and his slider and changeup both play a bit above average, with enough command to see him fitting in the late innings. Seventh-rounder in 2021 lefty Brant Hurter was a favorite of mine even after having Tommy John surgery at Georgia Tech because of his feel for his plus slider and he's returned now looking like a big leaguer, with enough velo at 90-94 mph and a solid changeup to go multiple innings.
I haven't been very complimentary of departed GM Al Avila and largely with good reason, but I'll give him praise here. These pitchers from the 2021 draft (Madden, Mattison, Hurter) plus top pick Jackson Jobe and 2022 fourth-rounder Melton were all excellent picks, improbably in some cases. The pitching personnel in place before Avila was fired was showing signs of improvement quickly and now are a legitimate asset for Scott Harris' regime. Director of pitching Gabe Ribas, hired from the Dodgers just after the 2021 draft, is the name to which many attribute this turnaround. Wilson, a prep lefty from Oregon who was a pick to click for many national scouts leading into the 2023 draft, seems like a great ball of clay for this dev group to work with, with mid-rotation upside.
Dingler has grown into a strong defender behind the plate and he still has above average raw power with feel to get to it in games, but falls on the starter/backup line (I'll lean to low-end starter) because of his approach that should lead to lower averages. Malloy was acquired from Atlanta and is a right-handed corner also on the platoon/low-end starter spectrum since he doesn't offer much defensively and has good-not-great power (20-25 annual homer upside) given that skill set. Lee was acquired from the Phillies in 2023 and similarly doesn't offer a ton defensively but has above-average traits at the plate. Anderson is another of this type, a solid defensive second baseman with a power-and-patience type skill set but average-ish raw tools.
Serretti and Perez are the two picks (due to defensive value) among a gaggle of back-of-the-40-man or upper- minors-type position players who are all prospect eligible, but I could've easily included them all or none of them. You can also toss former big bonus types like Izaac Pacheco and Cristian Santana or 2023 over-slot draftee Carson Rucker. I'll bet there's a breakout or two within that group, but it's hard to tell these players apart right now.
Kansas City Royals
26th overall
19th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$89 million total value
1. Carter Jensen, C, 45+ FV (122nd ranked overall)
2. Mason Barnett, RHP, 45+ FV (129)
3. Blake Mitchell, C, 45+ FV (174)
4. Cayden Wallace, 3B, 45 FV
5. David Sandlin, RHP, 45 FV
6. Blake Wolters, RHP, 45 FV
7. Nick Loftin, 2B, 45 FV
8. Javier Vaz, 2B, 45 FV
9. Tyler Gentry, RF, 40+ FV
10. Gavin Cross, RF, 40+ FV
11. Ramon Ramirez, C, 40 FV
12. Yandel Ricardo, SS, 40 FV
13. Steven Cruz, RHP, 40 FV
14. Chandler Champlain, RHP, 40 FV
15. Austin Charles, SS, 40 FV
16. Hiro Wyatt, RHP, 40 FV
17. Carson Roccaforte, CF, 40 FV
18. Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, 40 FV
19. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, 40 FV
20. Noah Cameron, LHP, 40 FV
21. Ben Kudrna, RHP, 40 FV
22. Luinder Avila, RHP, 40 FV
23. Jared Dickey, LF, 40 FV
24. Peyton Wilson, 2B, 40 FV
25. Matt Sauer, RHP, 40 FV
26. Hunter Owen, LHP, 40 FV
27. John McMillon, RHP, 40 FV
28. Steven Zobac, RHP, 40 FV
29. Will Klein, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: SS Maikel Garcia, LHP Cole Ragans, RHP James McArthur, RHP Alec Marsh, LF Nelson Velazquez, C Freddy Fermin, LF Dairon Blanco, CF Drew Waters
2024 impact: Loftin
Above 40 FV breakout: Gentry
40 FV breakout: Roccaforte
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
I'll echo some of the intro from the White Sox section above here. While not equivalent, this organization hasn't had a ton of success or strategy after the magical 2014-15 seasons and then opted to name a lieutenant of the last GM as their new GM leading to the same stuff continuing to happen.
Jensen and Mitchell are both midwestern high school catchers from recent draft classes, but with pretty different skill sets. Jensen is a power-and-patience type who will run lower batting averages and is merely OK behind the plate, probably getting to average when he's a big leaguer. Mitchell was eighth overall pick in the 2023 draft and is very active behind the plate, with a plus-plus arm, plus release and solid average ability to receive and frame. He is a left-handed hitter, with a hit-over-power approach, similar to another Texas prep backstop, Rockies C Drew Romo. If Mitchell's offensive tools play in pro ball, he'll easily be on next year's Top 100, but scouts are a little mixed on that while the prep backstop demographic is also very risky, just behind prep pitchers.
While Wallace, Cross, and Gentry are corner bats drafted from college in the early rounds and are all still on the starter/platoon spectrum, the Royals have seen more success with up-the-middle types like Loftin, Vaz and Roccaforte. Loftin is a plus runner who has always looked like a solid middle infielder with a hit-first profile, but has grown into average-ish power, hitting 15 homers last season. He's now played all over the field and has the look of a premium utility type. Vaz was a 15th-rounder, an afterthought from a heavily scouted Vanderbilt club as he had little power, drawing comps to former Commodore Tony Kemp from only optimistic scouts. Vaz's hit tool and pitch selection have been a bit better than expected, as well as his passable power, posting eight homers last season. He's an easy plus runner who played mostly left field in college but has been dabbling at the middle-infield spots, giving him a similar profile to Loftin. Roccaforte is an above-average runner and sneaky great defender in center field. The Royals took him 66th overall because he may also be able to post average offensive numbers, which would make him a strong every-day player.
On the pitching side, Barnett has been a nice find as a 2022 third-rounder out of Auburn. He was used in both starting and relief roles -- and his command was just on the wrong side of the starter/reliever divide. There's still some relief risk, but he rushed to Double-A in his first full season with strong numbers as a starter and still has the above-average stuff that scouts liked when he was a freshman. Wolters is a 6-4 former basketball player and plus athlete with the potential to be a No. 2 to No. 3 starter if it all clicks. He was the No. 44 overall pick, signing for an over-slot $2.8 million after scouting buzz grew when he opened the spring in Illinois hitting 99 mph while flashing a plus breaking ball. Cruz was acquired from Minnesota in the Michael A. Taylor deal and has some clear positives while sitting 96-100 mph, mixing in a plus slider and cutter. Everything averages at least 90 mph and his command is below average, but he can be an effective short reliever in the late innings.
Minnesota Twins
9th overall
7th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$241 million total value
1. Walker Jenkins, RF, 60 FV (14th on the Top 100)
2. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF, 55 FV (22)
3. Brooks Lee, SS, 55 FV (29)
4. Marco Raya, RHP, 50 FV (113)
5. David Festa, RHP, 45 FV
6. Gabriel Gonzalez, RF, 45 FV
7. Charlee Soto, RHP, 45 FV
8. C.J. Culpepper, LHP, 45 FV
9. Connor Prielipp, LHP, 45 FV
10. Luke Keachall, 2B, 45 FV
11. Danny De Andrade, SS, 40+ FV
12. Tanner Schobel, SS, 40+ FV
13. Cory Lewis, RHP, 40+ FV
14. Matt Canterino, RHP, 40+ FV
15. Austin Martin, SS, 40+ FV
16. Andrew Morris, RHP, 40 FV
17. Zebby Matthews, RHP, 40 FV
18. Brandon Winokur, RF, 40 FV
19. Jose Rodriguez, RF, 40 FV
20. Noah Cardenas, C, 40 FV
21. Noah Miller, SS, 40 FV
22. Tanner Hall, RHP, 40 FV
23. Ricardo Olivar, C, 40 FV
24. Ben Ross, SS, 40 FV
25. Kody Funderburk, LHP, 40 FV
26. Kala'i Rosario, RF, 40 FV
27. Daiber De Los Santos, SS, 40 FV
28. Yasser Mercedes, RF, 40 FV
29. Byron Chourio, CF, 40 FV
30. Dylan Questad, RHP, 40 FV
31. Pierson Ohl, RHP, 40 FV
32. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, 40 FV
33. Darren Bowen, RHP, 40 FV
34. Victor Leal, C, 40 FV
35. Yunior Severino, 3B, 40 FV
36. Jay Harry, SS, 40 FV
37. Mike Paredes, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: 2B Edouard Julien, RF Matt Wallner, RHP Louie Varland, LHP Brent Headrick, RHP Cole Sands
2024 impact: Lee
Above 40 FV breakout: Keachall
40 FV breakout: Rodriguez
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
Raya flew under the radar in the shortened 2020 draft as a 6-foot-1 prep right-hander with good arm speed and athleticism, but without the traditional traits of a pitcher who signs out of high school and no spring to prove himself. His traits are what some progressive teams are looking for though and Raya has already beat expectations, now sitting 94-96 mph with a fastball that plays even a tick better than the velocity due to the bat-missing characteristics. His plus slider is his best pitch and he also mixes in a solid curveball and changeup, but his command needs to get a bit better as he's promoted and adds to his light professional workload.
Minnesota surprised some (and bucked some progressive pitching ideas) by taking Chase Petty in the first round in 2021. He was traded in the Sonny Gray deal but is now a Top 100 prospect. Some of those same qualities are present in 2023 34th overall pick Charlee Soto. Soto also was in the upper-90s in the spring while flashing above-average off-speed stuff and starter command at times, but his fastball shape tended more toward a sinker like Petty's did. There's room for all kinds in baseball, not just the top-of-the-zone four-seamer, and as noted in the Ty Madden report in the Tigers section above, there's also room for good pitching development orgs to make tweaks, particularly with young, talented coachable prospects like this.
Keaschall and Winokur were both prospects I liked in the 2023 draft, but for pretty different reasons. Keaschall is an above-average runner and hitter who likely settles at second base, with the hope that his gap power plays close to average at maturity. Winokur was at various times seen by scouts as a pitcher, infielder, and outfielder during the 2023 draft process, but ultimately looks like a power-over-hit outfielder if I had to guess. He put on a show in BP at the combine, but his swing makes you wonder if that's all usable in games and/or a swing that will work in the big leagues; he could be a terror if it does.
The Twins just acquired Gonzalez from the Mariners in the Jorge Polanco trade. His raw tools stand out -- plus bat control, plus raw power, and above-average arm and solid right field defense -- but his approach undercuts those tools at the plate. His 37% chase rate is about 10% worse than average and his 55% swing rate (also about 10% more than average) helps paint the picture of an overeager hitter. Particularly early in pro careers, this can be curtailed and dialed in to around average, in which case Gonzalez would be a strong everyday player and/or a Top 100 prospect.
AL WEST
Houston Astros
27th overall
28th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$88 million total value
1. Jacob Melton, CF, 50 FV (74th on the Top 100)
2. Zach Dezenzo, 3B, 45+ FV (139)
3. Brice Matthews, SS, 45+ FV (171)
4. Luis Baez, RF, 45 FV
5. Zach Cole, CF, 40+ FV
6. Michael Knorr, RHP, 40+ FV
7. Colton Gordon, LHP, 40+ FV
8. Alonzo Tredwell, RHP, 40 FV
9. Waner Luciano, 3B, 40 FV
10. Kenedy Corona, CF, 40 FV
11. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP, 40 FV
12. Colin Barber, CF, 40 FV
13. Pedro Leon, CF, 40 FV
14. Joey Loperfido, LF, 40 FV
15. Rhett Kouba, RHP, 40 FV
16. Kenni Gomez, CF, 40 FV
17. Chase Jaworsky, SS, 40 FV
18. Nehomar Ochoa Jr., CF, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: C Yainer Diaz, RHP Hunter Brown, LF Corey Julks, SS Grae Kessinger
2024 impact: Corona
Above 40 FV breakout: Baez
40 FV breakout: Luciano
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
I mentioned in the farm rankings blurb that the Astros were low-key getting great returns in the draft, but some of those players (Ryan Clifford, Drew Gilbert, Chayce McDermott) have already been traded and the rest are approaching the big leagues. Melton and Dezenzo headline those value finds still in the system. Dezenzo is a corner fit -- passable at third base but probably better at first or maybe an outfield corner -- and because he was a late bloomer from Ohio State, he has been older for the levels he's been at. Those two factors combine to make many analysts dubious of his WAR upside but I think he could run near-average OBPs with 25 homers, so the lack of defensive value will make him a low-end regular.
Knorr (Coastal Carolina) and Gordon (UCF) are pitchers from those recent classes who were plucked from mid-major colleges. Knorr has above-average stuff and starter command but turns 24 in May and hasn't reached Double-A yet, so he should be pushed this season. Gordon is a 6-foot-4 lefty with good feel to locate a below-average heater but he has three variations of an above-average breaking ball, so he's at least a good lefty reliever and might be able to turn over a lineup.
The 2023 draft class has four selections on the list. Matthews is a classic late-blooming tools bet, with plus bat speed, power potential and foot speed. He's a maybe-shortstop but should land somewhere up the middle while the big question is how much contact he'll make (I'll say a .250 hitter) and how much of his power he'll get to in games (I'll guess 15-20 homers annually). Tredwell had Tommy John surgery as a senior in high school, then was sophomore-eligible at UCLA, so he hasn't had a ton of innings in front of national scouts. He's 6-foot-8, 230 pounds. with starter traits (rare at that size) and four average-to-above pitches. Jaworsky (raw, lefty hitting shortstop from Colorado with a potential plus power/speed combo) and Ochoa (6-4 Texas prep outfielder with easy plus raw and above-average speed but questions on contact) are late-rising, overslot prep position players with some tools but little in terms of performance against top pitching.
Along those lines, I'd keep an eye on Baez, Cole and Luciano as the toolsy types with the potential for a breakout. Baez signed for $1.3 million in the 2022 international class and has a classic right field fit with plus juice and a power-over-hit approach (20 homers in 116 pro games), but he might still hit .250. Cole is an off-the-charts athletic tester with some clear in-zone miss issues, so he'll always run big strikeout rates, but his pitch selection, raw power and speed are all pluses, so he'll be fun to watch at the very least. Luciano won't offer much speed or defensive value but he has hit 16 homers in 101 pro games, all in short season, along with a strong sense of the strike zone and good EVs, so I'm jumping on board.
Los Angeles Angels
30th overall
30th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$66 million total value
1. Nolan Schanuel, 1B, 50 FV (117th on the Top 100)
2. Nelson Rada, CF, 45+ FV (131)
3. Kyren Paris, SS, 45 FV
4. Caden Dana, RHP, 45 FV
5. Jack Kochanowicz, RHP, 40+ FV
6. Denzer Guzman, SS, 40 FV
7. Jadiel Sanchez, RF, 40 FV
8. Barrett Kent, RHP, 40 FV
9. Jorge Marcheco, RHP, 40 FV
10. Victor Mederos, RHP, 40 FV
11. Kelvin Caceres, RHP, 40 FV
12. Joswa Lugo, SS, 40 FV
13. Alberto Rios, LF, 40 FV
14. Joel Hurtado, RHP, 40 FV
15. Juan Flores, C, 40 FV
16. Dario Laverde, C, 40 FV
17. Jordyn Adams, CF, 40 FV
18. Adrian Placencia, 2B, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: C Logan O'Hoppe, SS Zach Neto, RHP Ben Joyce, RHP Chase Silseth, RHP Sam Bachman, 2B Michael Stefanic, RHP Davis Daniel, LHP Kenny Rosenberg
2024 impact: Schanuel
Above 40 FV breakout: Rada
40 FV breakout: Kent
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
Schanuel slowly moved his way up boards all spring while dominating at Florida Atlantic, starting in the late-first/early-second round. He was a definite first-round pick as conference tournaments started, then it became clear that a few teams, the Angels clearly the one picking highest, thought he was plus at everything in the batter's box and would rush to the big leagues. The Angels have tried this a few times under GM Perry Minasian, getting Silseth, Joyce, Neto and Bachman all to the big leagues fast as high picks, and the buzz was that it was their pitch to other potential first-round picks in 2023. As well it should be, because they took Schanuel 11th overall in July and he was in the big leagues in August. From his exit velos, surface stats and visual swing it looked like he was selling out for contact, which makes some sense when you go from playing in a mid-major league to taking a month or so off and then to the big leagues after 22 pro games. Schanuel clearly belonged in the big leagues in one way or another, but it's a different question if putting him back there to start 2023 is the best way for him to make adjustments and reach his upside, which is something like the numbers he showed in his debut, but with 25 homers instead of minimal power.
There are two more position player prospects with every-day potential left in the system: Rada and Paris. Rada played in Low-A last season as a 17-year-old, skipping the domestic complex league, and he had fantastic control of the strike zone, with 14% walks and 18% strikeouts in full season ball at the same age that domestic prospects are as high school juniors. He's a plus runner who is above-average defensively in center and on the bases, stealing 55 bases last season. He has some power potential, something like 10-12 annual homers probably, but it's obviously a lot to ask for him to also be good at that right now. With a hot start to 2024, he'll be in the Top 100. Paris has been a slow burn after going 55th overall in 2019 as a 17-year-old projection bet. Last season he turned a corner, hitting 14 homers and stealing 47 bases, mostly in Double-A as a 21-year-old, then also getting a brief big league debut at the end of the season. He's a plus runner who can capably play all three up-the-middle positions (and did all three in the big leagues) and is now tapping into his solid-average raw power without sacrificing too much contact. He could just be a good utility player, but I think there's at least a season or two as a low-end starter in him.
The Angels used the savings from their early picks in the 2022 draft on prep righty Dana, then did a similar version of that in 2023 with another prep righty in Kent. Dana is a physical 6-foot-4 righty from New York who had mid-90s velocity and an above-average breaking ball but wasn't very polished. He sat 93-95 mph with bat-missing life to a plus fastball and two solid breaking balls, getting to High-A as a teenager. There's still some work to be done on his command and the consistency of his off-speed stuff but Dana is moving quicker than expected with mid-rotation upside. Kent had late-first-round buzz off of the summer showcase circuit, flashing plus raw stuff, but followed with an up-and-down spring because of command and consistency, which is why he was on the board in the eighth round for a $1 million bonus. He made only three pro appearances after signing, but he has a similar profile and potential to Dana, so it'll be very impressive if the Angels can pull the same trick again.
Oakland Athletics
25th overall
19th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$112 million total value
1. Luis Morales, RHP, 50 FV (89th on the Top 100)
2. Jacob Wilson, SS, 45+ FV (128)
3. Darell Hernaiz, SS, 45+ FV (143)
4. Lawrence Butler, RF, 45+ FV (154)
5. Denzel Clarke, CF, 45+ FV (156)
6. Max Muncy, SS, 45 FV
7. Joe Boyle, RHP, 45 FV
8. Steven Echavarria, RHP, 45 FV
9. Myles Naylor, 3B, 40+ FV
10. Joey Estes, RHP, 40+ FV
11. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, 40 FV
12. Ryan Lasko, CF, 40 FV
13. Daniel Susac, C, 40 FV
14. Henry Bolte, CF, 40 FV
15. Mitch Spence, RHP, 40 FV
16. Brett Harris, 3B, 40 FV
17. Royber Salinas, RHP, 40 FV
18. Brennan Milone, 1B, 40 FV
19. Brady Basso. LHP, 40 FV
20. Cole Miller, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: C Tyler Soderstrom, RHP Mason Miller, 2B Zack Gelof, C Shea Langeliers, CF Esteury Ruiz, LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Luis Medina, LHP Kyle Muller, 1B Ryan Noda, 3B Jordan Diaz, RF J.J. Bleday, RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Lucas Erceg, LHP Hogan Harris, RHP Angel Felipe, RHP Michael Kelly
2024 impact: Hernaiz
Above 40 FV breakout: Echavarria
40 FV breakout: Hoglund
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
Three shortstop prospects will get the bulk of the time at three affiliates this year, possibly Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues on Opening Day: Wilson, Hernaiz, Muncy. I'm lower than others on Wilson relative to his draft position. He lacks power to the point that it borders on a problem, without a clear path to developing it, and that's been a widely known thing since the summer of 2022, when the 2023 draft process began. Wilson can really handle the bat, has a good approach and is an above-average fielder at short with good instincts. If all of that holds and he moves quickly through the minors, then getting 8-10 homers and a couple of dozen doubles will be enough to support an every-day profile, but there's not a lot of room for error in the projection.
Hernaiz was acquired from Baltimore last winter for Cole Irvin, which surprised me, but it seemed like the Orioles thought Hernaiz wasn't a shortstop and wasn't obviously a starter, at least in their loaded infield. He's still fine there for me, tracking like an average defender, and took a step forward with the stick, hitting his way to Triple-A at age 21. He's an above-average hitter with a fine approach and probably 10-15 homers, but has a little more raw pop than that. Muncy is also a fine shortstop with above average-raw power and he can't quite get to all of it, but is a notch worse in terms of contact and pitch selection than Hernaiz.
Wilson headlined a draft class of players I like, but I was critical of it right after the draft because I didn't love the value at each pick and the way the class was put together. Naylor is the third brother in his family to be a high pick and turn pro. He had late-first-round buzz off of the summer, then had questions on his bat due to up-and-down performance in the spring, which describes a subset of players I might underrate at draft time. I'll be interested to see which version of Naylor shows up in 2024, but his lineage suggests the good one. Lasko is a plus runner and athlete with a contact approach who either will do enough other stuff to start or becomes a fourth outfielder. Echavarria was maybe my favorite prep projection arm in the class, with all the markers you're looking for, so I liked the pick but was surprised the signing bonus price was $3 million. Lastly, Miller signed for $1 million and is a big right-hander with arm speed but I'm mixed on the other elements.
The A's have five players in or close to the big leagues worth mentioning: Butler, Clarke, Boyle, Este and Hoglund. Butler has plus raw power and roughly average on-base skills; he might be the first call-up when a lineup spot is open next year. Clarke should open in the upper minors and get a taste of the big leagues in 2024. He has massive raw power and long strides at 6-foot-5 so he may be a center fielder, too, but there's real swing and miss in his game, so he'll need to keep that pitch selection strong to hunt the right pitches to drive. Boyle has bananas raw stuff, among the best in the world, and magically learned to throw strikes when he got to the big leagues for three starts; I'd be tempted to just leave him up there until it doesn't work. Estes and Hoglund are both command/feel-over-stuff types. Hoglund returned late in 2023 from Tommy John surgery and could be back to how he looked at Ole Miss before blowing out. Estes made his debut last season as a 21-year-old and doesn't have big stuff but knows how to use it, so he'll need to prove that can keep working in the big leagues like it has in the minor leagues.
Seattle Mariners
14th overall
17th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$200 million total value
1. Colt Emerson, SS, 55 FV (25th on the Top 100)
2. Cole Young, SS, 55 FV (38)
3. Harry Ford, C, 50 FV (52)
4. Tyler Locklear, 1B, 45+ FV (135)
5. Felnin Celesten, SS, 45+ FV (145)
6. Jonny Farmelo, CF, 45 FV
7. Michael Arroyo, SS, 45 FV
8. Emerson Hancock, RHP, 45 FV
9. Jonatan Clase, CF, 45 FV
10. Lazaro Montes, RF, 45 FV
11. Tai Peete, SS, 45 FV
12. Cole Phillips, RHP, 40+ FV
13. Ben Williamson, 3B, 40 FV
14. Aidan Smith, CF, 40 FV
15. Dawel Joseph, SS, 40 FV
16. Jeter Martinez, RHP, 40 FV
17. Ryan Bliss, SS, 40 FV
18. Teddy McGraw, RHP, 40 FV
19. Taylor Dollard, RHP, 40 FV
20. Alberto Rodriguez, LF, 40 FV
21. Blake Hunt, C, 40 FV
22. Peyton Alford, RHP, 40 FV
23. Michael Morales, RHP, 40 FV
24. Jimmy Joyce, RHP, 40 FV
25. Logan Evans, RHP, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: RHP Bryce Miller, RHP Bryan Woo, RHP Gregory Santos, RHP Jackson Kowar, 2B Samad Taylor, LF Cade Marlowe, LF Dominic Canzone, LF Canaan Smith-Njigba, RHP Carlos Vargas
2024 impact: Bliss
Above 40 FV breakout: Farmelo
40 FV breakout: Williamson
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
Bliss and Hancock are the only real choices for 2024 impact as there will likely be no rookies breaking camp with the team and those two will be among the better options at Triple-A when help is needed. Bliss profiles as a versatile, well-rounded utility infielder with medium tools. Hancock is a former top-10 pick who is now seen as a back-end starter because his stuff hasn't played as crisply as expected in pro ball.
After finding success with prep position players at the top of the draft, all now in the Top 100 -- Emerson, Young, Ford, Edwin Arroyo (traded to Cincinnati) -- Seattle dipped back into that well in the 2023 draft, taking Farmelo, Peete, and Smith. Farmelo's swing appears odd at first glance but is mechanically sound. The other tools are big (65-grade runner, 55 arm, center field fit, solid-average raw power) so if the bat plays, he'll be a good everyday player. Peete is a higher variance type who some teams saw more as a pitcher entering his draft spring while projections of his position varied from shortstop to third base to center field or even corner outfield. He's a switch hitter with plus power potential, plus speed and a plus arm, but likely comes with some swing-and-miss. Smith opened my eyes at the draft combine, with above-average raw power and speed, so if he can hit, he'll also be an every-day player.
Locklear (VCU) and Williamson (William & Mary) were both high picks as collegiate third baseman at mid-Atlantic mid-majors. Locklear now looks like a first base-only fit, with the hit/power tools and patience to produce, but 2024 will help me decide if he's more of a low-end regular or a strong every-day player. Williamson was a late-rising 22-year-old with good surface stats, underlying TrackMan data and checked the eyeball scouting box as well, so he was taken in the second round as an under-slot pick to allow Seattle to pay for Smith, among others. He's now 23, so he might end up in Double-A in 2024 -- if things go well -- with above-average power potential and real bat-to-ball that project for around average offensive output.
On the upside-oriented portion of the list, Phillips was a favorite in the 2022 draft because of his plus stuff and plus-plus makeup but is just now returning from Tommy John surgery and came over from Atlanta in the offseason Jarred Kelenic deal. Clase is an 80 runner who hit 20 homers and stole 79 bases last year, but there are concerns his quality of contact and instincts will keep him from putting up gaudy numbers like that in the big leagues. Celesten is one of the more celebrated international prospects in recent years, so he's up here because he could be plus at everything -- but he hasn't played much since he signed last January for $4.9 million.
Texas Rangers
12th overall
26th in quality depth (prospects over 40 FV)
$228 million total value
1. Wyatt Langford, LF, 60 FV (4th on Top 100)
2. Evan Carter, CF, 60 FV (6)
3. Sebastian Walcott, SS, 55 FV (44)
4. Justin Foscue, 2B, 50 FV (111)
5. Abimelec Ortiz, 1B, 45+ FV (180)
6. Jack Leiter, RHP, 45 FV
7. Brock Porter, RHP, 45 FV
8. Kumar Rocker, RHP, 40+ FV
9. Jonathan Ornelas, SS, 40 FV
10. Owen White, RHP, 40 FV
11. Mitch Bratt, LHP, 40 FV
12. Aidan Curry, RHP, 40 FV
13. Jose Corniell, RHP, 40 FV
14. Josh Stephan, RHP, 40 FV
15. Dustin Harris, LF, 40 FV
16. Emiliano Teodo, RHP, 40 FV
17. Antoine Kelly, LHP, 40 FV
18. Marc Church, RHP, 40 FV
19. Winston Santos, RHP, 40 FV
20. Paulino Santana, RF, 40 FV
21. Cameron Cauley, SS, 40 FV
22. Echedry Vargas, 2B, 40 FV
23. Cole Winn, RHP, 40 FV
24. D.J. McCarty, RHP, 40 FV
25. Jesus Lopez, C, 40 FV
Notable 2023 graduations: 3B Josh Jung, 3B Ezequiel Duran, LHP Cody Bradford, RHP Grant Anderson
2024 impact: Carter
Above 40 FV breakout: Porter
40 FV breakout: Curry
Non-Top 100 scouting reports
Foscue and Ortiz have some similarities, looking more like baseball players than football or basketball athletes, if you catch my drift. Foscue is listed a 5-foot-11, 205 pounds, and is a fine but not good defender; you're basically trying to get his bat into the lineup. Last year he hit .266/.394/.468 in Triple-A with more walks than strikeouts, 18 homers and 31 doubles. That basically explains it better than I can -- dude can hit -- and I think the Rangers find a spot for him in the big leagues this year.
Ortiz is listed at 6 feet, 230 pounds and his carrying tool is his big, easy plus raw power. It isn't just hypothetical either, in exit velos and batting practice but not in the game. He hit 33 bombs last year across both A-ball levels and wasn't just a softball cleanup hitter, he also drew 11% walks to help him hit .294/.371/.619. There isn't a lot of margin for error -- if I miss the projection by a bit, he's a Matt Adams-esque platoon type -- but he seems primed to crush the upper minors so I slid him up into the 45+ FV tier because I think it will work.
The rest of these reports will be focused on pitching. Leiter and Rocker are the two big names and both have had some struggles, while two other heralded arms in White and Winn regressed last season. Leiter still hasn't dialed in his command quite yet, repeating Double-A in 2023 and putting up basically the same numbers after some thought he'd blitz his way to the big leagues when he was the No. 2 overall pick in 2021. He improved the shape of his fastball notably in 2023, getting more rise, but still looks similar to how he did in 2022. I'll give him 2024 to right the ship before I officially adjust expectations much lower. Rocker had shoulder surgery in late 2021, then was signed by the Rangers in 2022, went to the Arizona Fall League and then six starts into 2023, he had Tommy John surgery. My instinct last year that he may ultimately fit best in shorter stints now may be his best role when he returns, probably in the fall of 2024 to then play the regular season of 2025 and potentially pitch his way to the big leagues.
On the other hand, while those older pitchers had some trouble last year, there's a wave of young arms that might pass every one of them by next winter: Porter, Bratt, Curry, Stephan and Corniell being the main ones. Porter was a mid-first round talent the Rangers landed in 2022 with the Rocker pick savings and he's largely the same pitcher after 69.1 innings over 21 starts in 2023. There's still some relief risk, but he should be stretched out and go deeper into games in 2024 to let us know better what he may become. Bratt is a lefty with average stuff and above-average command while the next three righties are all pretty similar. Curry works 92-94 with a four-seamer that works at the top of the zone, relying mostly on a slider that's also above average. Stephan sits 90-93 mph with two- and four-seam fastballs, relying on an above-average slider; he's a year older and has a bit more feel than Curry. Corniell sits 93-96 mph, relying on an above-average two-plane slider, mixing in a cutter and changeup. I'll bet at least one of this group takes a leap forward in 2024.