Just about three quarters of the way through the MLB season, there is a group of stars on pace for some truly mind-boggling final numbers.
New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is in the midst of a long ball spree that has his second season of 60-plus home runs within reach. Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is on pace for a historic combination of home runs and stolen bases as a designated hitter. And some of the game's brightest emerging stars, including Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr., Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes and Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz, are putting up their own incredible numbers.
We asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield and Jeff Passan to decide whether these players will go over or under their current paces (all paces entering Monday's games) for the rest of the year.
Aaron Judge is on pace for 57 home runs. Will he go over/under that total?
Passan: Over. The only thing at this point that can stop Judge is managers choosing to pitch around him, and even then, when Barry Bonds was getting that sort of treatment, he managed to set the single-season home run record. Judge is the closest thing baseball has had to prime Bonds since his retirement, and even though Judge is prone to occasional slumps -- remember when some Yankees fans booed him in April? -- he is swinging with unshakeable confidence. When asked Monday about how to pitch to Judge, Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy compared him to Herman Munster trying out for the Dodgers and said pitchers need to approach every pitch like it's a two-strike count. There is no hitter in the world more talented than Judge. Bet against him at your peril.
Schoenfield: Let's see. In his first 58 games, Judge hit 18 home runs. In his next 59, he hit 24, so his pace has been picking up throughout the season. Also note his month-by-month batting averages after a slow start in April: .361, .409, .318 and .483 so far in August. Yes, he's completely zoned in and it looks like he'll go over 57. But there's another mark that I'm really interested in: Can he slug .700? He's at .699. Nobody has done that since Barry Bonds in 2004, and nobody has done it outside of that 1994-2004 era since Ted Williams in 1957.
Shohei Ohtani is on pace for 48 home runs and 44 stolen bases. Will he get to a 50/50 season?
Passan: He will not. Though as if Ohtani didn't do enough already, he now has added elite baserunner to his résumé in 2024. Ohtani always has been sneaky fast, and he swiped 20 bags last year and topped out at 26 in 2021. Already he's at 32, one behind Milwaukee's Brice Turang for second in the big leagues, and he has been caught only four times. The possibility of him hitting 15 home runs over the final quarter of the season is probably more realistic than him getting to 50 steals, but if this is Ohtani's last season as purely a full-time hitter, becoming the first 50/50 player in MLB history would be a hell of a way to close it out.
Schoenfield: He'll get to 40/40, but I'll definitely take the under on those paces. I don't see him picking up his stolen base pace -- for one thing, Ohtani doesn't seem like the type to chase stats just to chase stats. Plus, after a blistering first three months, he has slowed just a bit of late. You have to get on base to steal a base. Worth noting: Shawn Green holds the franchise record with 49 home runs, so that's in play.
Tim Kurkjian weighs in on whether Aaron Judge will hit 60 home runs and if Shohei Ohtani will finish with 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases this season.
Elly De La Cruz is on pace for 81 stolen bases. Will he go over or under?
Passan: He will go over because the prophecy is real. As someone who predicted De La Cruz ripping 80 bags (and hitting 30 home runs) two weeks into the 2024 season, I'm somewhat invested in this. But really it's more because De La Cruz really wants it. He relishes running, saying it's his favorite thing to do in the game, and the opportunity to be the first player since Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman in 1988 to steal 80-plus bases in a season matters to him. So when he's on base, watch out. Unless the situation demands otherwise, De La Cruz will be going.
Schoenfield: De La Cruz has played 116 games, so I did a quick study looking at the 18 times a player has stolen 80 or more bases in a season since 1962 (the incomparable Rickey Henderson did it an astounding six times) to see if a player's legs go a little bit at this point in the season. Turns out there's little difference: The average pace to the end of the year actually increased, from 0.63 steals per game to 0.68. I'll take the over.
Bobby Witt Jr. is on pace for 225 hits. Will he go over or under?
Passan: As much as my instinct suggests no, I'm going to say yes, if only because every Royals game you watch it seems like Witt has two or three hits, and that's the sort of thing that imprints itself in an era where hits are so difficult to come by. What's on his side especially is that he doesn't walk very much -- and, most importantly, he strikes out at a minuscule rate for a hitter with his power. Add in Witt's speed leading to infield hits, and the formula is there.
Schoenfield: The last player with 225 hits was Jose Altuve, who hit that exact total in 2014, a season in which he hit .341. Witt is at .348. I'll take the under for one clear reason: The Royals are done playing the White Sox and Witt hit .469 against them.
Alec Bohm is on pace for 59 doubles. Will he go over or under?
Passan: Under. Because as good as Bohm is, I'm anticipating some of those doubles start going over the fence. Bohm has only 12 homers on the season, and he deserves plenty of respect for not trying to chase power numbers and stroking doubles all around the field. But he's got too much size and raw power to miss out on the home runs.
Schoenfield: I'm glad we're including this one because it's my favorite category on the list. There have been only six 60-double seasons in MLB history, and no player has reached the mark since Joe Medwick and Charlie Gehringer in 1936. Freddie Freeman just missed with 59 last season and Nick Castellanos hit 58 in 2019, the only close runs at the mark since Todd Helton hit 59 in 2000. Just for the sake of history, I'm going to say he lands on 60 on the final day of the season.
Paul Skenes' ERA is at 2.25. Will he finish above or below that mark?
Passan: Below. Skenes' "stumbles" of late would still qualify as good starts for most, and while this is his first major league season and it's reasonable to believe he's going to tire at the end, this is what Skenes planned for, this is what he trained for and this is what he intends to execute. And those aren't small things. The Pirates aren't asking him to do anything beyond what he's ready to do, and even if Skenes' fastball is a tick down from its peak, his exceptional command and overwhelming stuff are plenty capable of shutting down even the best lineup. Just remember: The margin of error here is slim: One bad start and 2.25 is cooked.
Schoenfield: His past two starts haven't been quite what we saw early on -- he struck out just four in a wobbly 5⅓ innings against the Diamondbacks and then allowed four runs in six innings in a loss to the Dodgers -- but you don't want to read too much into a couple of so-so starts. I'll take the under on the 2.25 ERA -- although with the Pirates' playoff hopes collapsing with a seven-game losing streak last week, you wonder how deep into September they'll push Skenes. With outfielders Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio both on fire, that means the NL Rookie of the Year race might still be wide open despite Skenes' dominant season.
Dylan Cease is on pace for 246 strikeouts. Will he go over or under?
Passan: It's not so much about the ability to strike out hitters as it is the numbers of innings he'll throw. If the Padres are going to make a run in the postseason this year, it's going to be with Cease at the top of the rotation, and with him on pace to come close to a career high in innings pitched, San Diego could easily lean on its deep and excellent bullpen to give him a breather. This would be Cease's fourth consecutive season with at least 200 strikeouts, a mark that the others with 200-plus from 2021 to '23 -- Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola -- might not match. But 246 is a tough number for any modern pitcher to reach.
Schoenfield: I'll take the under as Cease likely peaked with the recent three-start stretch in which he allowed just two hits. He doesn't pitch consistently deep into games, and if the Padres continue to hold comfortably to a playoff spot (and I think they will), it makes sense to conserve some innings for the postseason.