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2024 Olympics: Why this roster could be more talented than past USA teams

Phoenix Suns stars Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are expected to play for Team USA at the 2024 Paris Olympics. AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

Editor's note: This story has been updated on April 16 following the announcement of Kawhi Leonard as the 12th and final player on the USA Olympic roster.

How do the players who will represent the USA at the 2024 Paris Olympics compare to past U.S. men's basketball rosters?

ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Tuesday that LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard will be the 12th and final player on the preliminary USA Olympic roster, joining a star-studded group of 11 players reported Monday that features four past NBA MVPs: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, reigning MVP Joel Embiid and LeBron James. Leonard adds a pair of Finals MVPs to that trophy case.

Thanks to high interest in getting the U.S. back on top of the medal stand after last year's fourth-place finish in the FIBA Basketball World Cup and the lure of playing in Paris, the USA's preliminary roster looks almost identical to the ideal group I picked last fall. Ten of the 12 players picked were on my imaginary roster, with Leonard Boston Celtics guard Jrue Holiday -- both among my toughest cuts -- as the lone aditions addition to the group.

There are more than three months until the opening ceremonies of the Olympics, so it's possible the U.S. roster might change between now and then. Still, let's take a look at how much more talented this group could be than recent USA teams.


Biggest names answered USA call

Let's start with the four past MVPs when we contrast the 2024 roster with the ones the U.S. has sent to recent international competitions. Remarkably, Durant was the only MVP to play for the USA at any point since the 2014 World Cup, appearing in both the 2016 and 2020 Olympics. (Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics took place in 2021.)

Embiid, who wasn't naturalized as an American citizen until September 2022, just committed to represent the U.S. instead of Cameroon and France last fall. For Curry and James, however, this is a return to Team USA for the first time in years. Curry played in the 2010 and 2014 World Cups, while James last wore a U.S. jersey during the 2012 London Olympics.

As a result, this feels the most like a Dream Team roster made up of the best possible American players since 2012. That Olympic team featured three players who had been MVPs in Durant, James and Kobe Bryant, along with future MVPs James Harden and Russell Westbrook. It's possible one of the younger players on this U.S. roster could eventually win MVP to match that year's total of five.


Roster full of All-Stars

Besides the big names, the most notable thing about the projected U.S. Olympic roster is its depth. Of the 12 players selected, only Holiday -- who made his second All-Star appearance in 2023 -- was not chosen for this year's All-Star Game.

The last time a U.S. roster in a major international competition featured so many current All-Stars was 1996, aka "Dream Team III," which brought a full complement of 12 All-Stars that year to Atlanta. The original Dream Team, which had 11 All-Stars in 1992 alongside rookie Christian Laettner, was the only other USA roster with as many current All-Stars.

Because international players are now among the league's very best -- none of this year's top four leaders in the MVP straw poll by ESPN's Tim Bontemps, the same group that also finished atop my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric, is American -- the combined WARP posted by the 2024 USA Olympic roster won't match the lofty totals from 1992 and 1996, when the U.S. Olympians averaged more than 15 WARP each, more than any American player this season.

Still, in the context of recent USA rosters, this year's group stands out as far more productive during the most recent NBA campaign. You have to go back to the 2016 Rio Olympics, where the U.S. brought nine current All-Stars and seven players coming off All-NBA seasons, to find a better roster by WARP.


USA loaded up on international experience

The other way this year's potential U.S. roster stands apart from its recent predecessors is the amount of past FIBA experience players will bring to Paris. Of the 12 players USA Basketball has chosen, only Embiid and Leonard will be making their international debut at the senior level. This will be James' sixth time representing the USA and Durant's fifth, including four Olympics apiece.

That's a dramatic change from last summer, when none of the 12 players on the U.S. roster had ever played at the senior level internationally. That low point was the result of a combination of trends. Naturally, players have to agree to come back, and the reluctance of bigger names to commit to the 2020 Olympics and 2023 World Cup limited USA Basketball's options.

At the same time, after focusing on continuity under Jerry Colangelo and Mike Krzyzewski, USA Basketball had taken a different approach during Grant Hill's time as managing director. Each roster has been built individually rather than having a consistent player pool, leading to increased turnover. The 2012 Olympics were the last time more than half the U.S. roster has had previous senior international experience; there were just six combined returning players during the 2019 World Cup and 2020 Olympics combined.

It will be interesting to see whether USA Basketball continues to build around young guards Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton, the two holdovers from last summer's World Cup roster set to play in the Olympics. On a deep, veteran roster, Edwards and Haliburton are likely ticketed for reserve roles in Paris but could step into larger ones by the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.

Edwards and Haliburton are the lone preliminary USA players who will be younger than 25 (or 26, for that matter) when the Olympics start. That would match the fewest under-25 players on any U.S. roster since the Dream Team. Typically, USA Basketball has preferred to take more younger players to fill out the bench, as well as more size in case of foul trouble under FIBA rules (which allow just five fouls in 40 minutes as compared to the NBA's six in 48).

With so many stars answering their call, however, USA Basketball went for the most talented roster rather than the best-fitting one. And given the track record for less accomplished World Cup rosters, as well as the 2020 Olympic group that lost in the preliminary round before winning gold, that was probably the right approach to take.