We're one week away from the start of men's basketball action at the 2024 Summer Olympics, which features what looks like the deepest field of competitors ever in Olympic competition.
With a dream roster headlined by NBA MVPs Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid and LeBron James, the USA is a heavy favorite (-500, according to ESPN BET) to win a fifth consecutive gold medal. However, the USA no longer has a monopoly on MVPs, with Serbia's Nikola Jokic (three) and Greece's Giannis Antetokounmpo (two) both having won multiple times and in the Olympics field.
Meanwhile, Canada's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished second behind Jokic in last season's voting, while no player on the American roster finished higher than sixth (Jayson Tatum). Yet none of those teams walked away with last year's FIBA Basketball World Cup title. With Antetokounmpo and Jokic sitting out and the USA bringing a roster that featured just two Olympians (Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton), it was Germany that claimed its first world championship.
All of that makes it challenging to rank the 12 teams participating in the Olympics. As many as five teams besides the USA could make a compelling case to win a medal. With that in mind, let's go through my pre-Olympics Power Rankings and compare them to the current odds at ESPN BET.
Brian Windhorst breaks down Team USA's close win against South Sudan and what these Olympics mean for LeBron James and Steph Curry.
1. USA
FIBA ranking: 1
ESPN BET odds: minus-500
Typically, American struggles in international play have been presaged by close calls or losses in exhibition games. So far, so good for the USA. After sleepwalking through much of the fourth quarter of a six-point win over Australia in Abu Dhabi, the U.S. responded by blowing out a Serbia squad that included Jokic, albeit not starting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic. Add in a comfortable win over Canada in Las Vegas and Team USA has looked the part of favorite ahead of the final tune-ups in London against South Sudan and Germany.
2. Serbia
FIBA ranking: 4
ESPN BET odds: +1400
The case for Serbia is simple: It won silver last year in the Philippines, beating Canada in the semifinals before losing by six to Germany in the final, and the team did it without perhaps the world's best player. Jokic rested last summer following a long run to the title with the Denver Nuggets but is back with Serbia this year. Of the six top contenders, Serbia has the least total NBA minutes both last season and career-wise. Still, Jokic is dominant enough to make up for that, and Bogdanovic and Vasilije Micic offer perimeter counterweights. Serbia also impressed in beating France 79-67 in an exhibition in Lyon before losing both ends of a back-to-back in Abu Dhabi while resting key players in each game.
3. Canada
FIBA ranking: 7
ESPN BET odds: +1200
For years, Canada has been the FIBA team of the future as it continues pumping talent into the NBA. Of the 12 players on the Olympic roster, only Melvin Ejim has never played in the league, and 10 were in the NBA last season. The future finally arrived in September, when Canada reached the semifinals and beat Team USA for its first medal since the 1936 Olympics. Eight players from that group return, supplemented by the addition of 2023 NBA champion Jamal Murray. Canada is not as strong in the frontcourt, a potential weakness against the other teams in the top four, but a favorable draw could easily put Canada in the gold medal game.
4. France
FIBA ranking: 9
ESPN BET odds: +1600
The host nation reached the gold medal game in 2021 and now adds Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama for his first major senior international tournament alongside Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. France's lead-up to the Olympics has been shaky, however. It lost at home to Germany with Wembanyama sitting out due to illness, then lost to Serbia as well. With Evan Fournier (31) and Nando De Colo (37) aging, France's guard play is no longer as strong as it was in 2021. So despite enviable frontcourt talent, which also includes NBA veteran Nicolas Batum, France is far from a lock for the semifinals.
5. Germany
FIBA ranking: 3
ESPN BET odds: +3000
The reigning world champions can't be pleased to be a distant fifth in the minds of oddsmakers. All 10 players who saw action in the final return, so Germany is betting on continuity and chemistry over the superior star talent of the teams ahead of it in the rankings. Although Germany lost to France at home earlier this month, that came with both Moritz Wagner and Franz Wagner sitting out before finalizing new NBA contracts with the Orlando Magic. With the Wagner brothers back in action, Germany won in France two days later. We'll get another gauge of how serious a gold medal contender Germany is in a matchup against Team USA on Monday.
6. Australia
FIBA ranking: 5
ESPN BET odds: +5000
So far, the Aussies have given the USA its toughest test in exhibition play. Down 15 to start the fourth, Australia cut the lead to six with 5:05 left on Monday but could get no closer. In the last Olympics, the Boomers earned their first-ever medal by winning bronze, but a similar roster was eliminated ahead of the World Cup knockout rounds after losses to Germany and Slovenia. Eight players return from that group, which added NBA veterans Matthew Dellavedova and Jock Landale this summer.
7. Greece
FIBA ranking: 14
ESPN BET: +4000
Antetokounmpo's return from the soleus strain that sidelined him for the NBA playoffs helped Greece win a tricky qualifying tournament as hosts. Greece blew out a fatigued Luka Doncic and Slovenia in the semifinals and beat Croatia in the final, earning a ticket to Paris. It's been five years since we last saw Antetokounmpo in a major international tournament, and Greece was eliminated shy of the knockout stages in the 2019 World Cup when he was the reigning MVP. With brother Thanasis sidelined by an Achilles rupture, Antetokounmpo is the lone current NBA player on the Greece roster, an imbalance that has allowed defenses to load up and contain him.
8. Spain
FIBA ranking: 2
ESPN BET: +6000
FIBA's dubious world rankings include results up to eight years back, with decreasing weight over time. That helps explain why Spain is still No. 2 despite losing in the quarterfinals of the most recent Olympics and not reaching the knockout stages at all in last year's World Cup. The golden generation that took Spain to silver medals in 2008 and 2012 plus World Cup wins in 2006 and 2019 is aging (Rudy Fernandez is 39 heading into his fifth Olympics, while Sergio Llull is 36) or retired. Spain hasn't developed the same caliber of talent to take their place, with just two players from the roster (Santi Aldama and Usman Garuba) playing in the NBA last season.
9. Brazil
FIBA ranking: 12
ESPN BET: +15000
Though Brazil is a distant ninth in these rankings, there's a pretty good chance of reaching the knockout stages. A favorable draw will allow Brazil to advance as a third-place team by beating Japan and maintaining a strong point differential against the two powers in the group (France and Germany). Brazil already showed its mettle by going to Latvia and beating the hosts by 25 in the final to qualify for the Olympics, albeit without having to face the injured Kristaps Porzingis. Brazil has just one current NBA player on its roster, Golden State Warriors reserve Gui Santos.
10. Puerto Rico
FIBA ranking: 16
ESPN BET: +50000
Back in the Olympics for the first time since 2004 when they became the first team to defeat the USA in the Olympics with NBA players on the roster, Puerto Rico beat Lithuania at home in order to qualify. Much like the 2004 team led by Carlos Arroyo, the current squad is guard-heavy with Jose Alvarado of the New Orleans Pelicans and NBA veteran Tremont Waters leading the way.
11. South Sudan
FIBA ranking: 33
ESPN BET: +100000
No African team has ever reached the knockout round of the Olympics, a reasonable goal for South Sudan. Getting there would require winning a game -- most likely against Puerto Rico, having lost to them in the opening game of last year's World Cup in overtime -- and minimizing the point differential against the USA. Under the leadership of longtime NBA player Luol Deng, the federation president, South Sudan finished 17th in last year's World Cup to qualify for their first Olympic appearance only 10 years after being recognized by FIBA as an independent nation.
12. Japan
FIBA ranking: 26
ESPN BET: +100000
The lowest-placed team in last year's World Cup to reach the Olympics -- remarkably, only one spot behind France -- Japan took the Asia qualification spot without beating anyone ranked higher than 21st in the World Cup. As hosts in Tokyo three years ago, Japan was eliminated without winning a game. Despite a pair of experienced NBA players in Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe (who combined to play more minutes than Spain's NBA contingent last season), winning will be a challenge for Japan this time around in France.