Not every player in the 2024 men's Olympic basketball tournament does his usual work in the NBA, nor is every single NBA star present at these games. (Looking at you, Kawhi Leonard.) But with the U.S. in its typical perch as gold medal favorites -- pre-tourney hiccups against South Sudan notwithstanding -- and international players gaining more prominence in the league, NBA performance is as important as ever when assessing the Olympic field.
With that in mind, we rank the top players at the Paris Olympics based on their projected 2024-25 NBA performance.
How this works: We'll be using Estimated RAPTOR as our measure of player effectiveness, since it incorporates individual stats with a player's effect on his team's play while on the court. The projections are largely modeled off of Basketball-Reference's Simple Projection System; every player who played in the NBA over the past three seasons receives a forecast on offense and defense based on his (age-adjusted) Estimated RAPTOR in those years. You can read about the details of the calculation here.
One caveat is that these projections are designed to tell us how good a player will be over the entirety of the 2024-25 NBA season. Since the Olympics are happening much sooner than the 2025 NBA Finals, players who are particularly young or old might be on a different aging trajectory by the end of next season than they are now. For instance, this is why LeBron James (who'll turn 40 in the middle of next season) might rank lower than we'd expect based on his play last season. But at the same time, veterans playing in the Olympics have had a compressed offseason, so they might be feeling the effects of their age already.
Either way, these forecasts should tell us who is poised for big seasons in the NBA next season -- and that should hold true for the Olympics as well.
Let's begin our top 20 countdown at the bottom of the list and work our way to the top.
20. Josh Giddey, Australia
2024-25 age: 22 | Chicago Bulls
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +0.6 | Defense: +0.2 | Overall: +0.9
The Boomers have plenty of NBA players to choose from in Paris, including Dante Exum, Dyson Daniels, Josh Green, Joe Ingles and Patty Mills, who will be making his fifth Olympics appearance.
But the one with the best projection for next season is Giddey, 21, who is coming off his best season as a pro with 3.8 Wins Above Replacement. Giddey continues to produce an impressive assist rate (26.6%) for a 6-foot-8 player to go with above average rates of scoring (23.6 points per 100 possessions) and rebounding (14.2% rebound).
The big steps forward for Giddey last season, though, came as a shooter -- he made career highs of 81% from the line and 34% from deep -- and a defender, with a career-best block rate and defensive Estimated RAPTOR. Giddey was traded from the Oklahoma City Thunder to Chicago for Alex Caruso in June, and the Olympics will be a chance for him to showcase even more improvement.
19. Jose Alvarado, Puerto Rico
2024-25 age: 26 | New Orleans Pelicans
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: -0.7 | Defense: +1.6 | Overall: +0.9
Because of injuries and less than eye-catching scoring stats, Alvarado has a tendency to fly under the radar (when he's not stirring up trouble with other players). But when healthy, he is one of the NBA's best defensive point guards despite standing a mere 6 feet. (Those constant Pat Beverley comparisons are onto something.) Among active players with a minimum of 3,000 career minutes, only Matisse Thybulle, Gary Payton II and Chris Paul have a higher career steal rate than Alvarado's 3.0% mark -- "Grand Theft Alvarado" indeed -- and only Payton II, Caruso and De'Anthony Melton have a higher defensive Estimated RAPTOR than Alvarado at +2.0.
While he isn't much of a scorer inside the 3-point arc, Alvarado doesn't make many mistakes with the ball -- and his defense makes up for what he lacks on offense.
18. Rudy Gobert, France
2024-25 age: 32 | Minnesota Timberwolves
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: -1.1 | Defense: +2.1 | Overall: +1.0
Speaking of defense, Gobert will be anchoring the interior for France as the 2020 silver medalists try to make another deep tournament run. Perhaps surprisingly, Gobert blocked only five shots in six games during the Tokyo Games, yielding a block rate of 3.2%. (For comparison, Gobert's career rate in the NBA is 5.8%.) However, the NBA's 2023-24 Defensive Player of the Year still figures to be one of the highest-impact defenders in the tournament, with a projected Estimated RAPTOR of +2.1 at that end of the court.
The offense is the concern for the home team -- France failed to score more than 82 points in any of its four consecutive losses during friendlies leading up to the Olympics -- and that's an area Gobert isn't much help. But on defense, Gobert helped France to be the semifinalist who allowed the fewest points per game of any team (85.8) in the last Olympics.
17. Bam Adebayo, United States
2024-25 age: 27 | Miami Heat
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +0.1 | Defense: +1.1 | Overall: +1.2
Adebayo is making his second Olympic appearance after averaging 6.3 points and 5.7 rebounds in Tokyo three years ago. Oddly, his RAPTOR WAR per 82 team games has gone down each season since -- from 7.0 in 2020-21 to 6.0, then 5.5 and, most recently, 4.6 in 2023-24 -- despite Adebayo entering his prime age range and largely staying healthy the past few years.
But Adebayo has also been a multitime All-Star and All-Defensive Team fixture in the NBA over those seasons, and he'll be one of the most important defenders in the American frontcourt rotation while also chipping in points and boards.
16. Stephen Curry, United States
2024-25 age: 36 | Golden State Warriors
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.3 | Defense: -1.0 | Overall: +1.2
Coming off his three-year trend of declining WAR, Curry carries the U.S.'s lowest projected defensive Estimated RAPTOR for the 2024-25 NBA season. But it will nonetheless be special to see Curry play for Team USA in the Olympics for the first time. And putting aside his age and defensive limitations, Curry remains one of the game's most skilled scorers.
He was also the best 3-point shooter in the NBA by volume last season, making 7.1 shots from deep per 100 team possessions at a 40.8% clip. This U.S. roster needs Curry's shooting. Along with Derrick White and maybe Jrue Holiday, Curry is the only 3-point marksman who mixed high volume and accuracy from deep last season.
15. Victor Wembanyama, France
2024-25 age: 21 | San Antonio Spurs
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: -1.4 | Defense: +2.9 | Overall: +1.5
Remarkably, four-time DPOY winner Gobert isn't the top defender by projected 2024-25 RAPTOR at the Olympics -- that honor belongs to his 7-foot-4 teammate Wemby, who at age 20 has already established himself as one of the NBA's most feared players on defense. His combination of a 10% block rate and 2% steal rate last season was a first in NBA history; the Spurs' defense also improved by 5.8 points per 100 (basically the difference between the league's best defense and an average one last season) when he was on the court.
Estimated RAPTOR is less enamored with Wemby's offense -- between his low True Shooting Percentage and many turnovers, he was among the league's least efficient players last season -- but that area of his game should improve quickly if the second half of last season was any indication. Maybe we'll even see the continued expansion of Wemby's skills at his hometown Olympics.
14. Jamal Murray, Canada
2024-25 age: 27 | Denver Nuggets
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.3 | Defense: -0.1 | Overall: +2.1
On a Canadian roster stacked with NBA talent, Murray is one of the biggest reasons why his national team ranks second behind the U.S. on gold medal odds. A year after Murray helped Denver win its first NBA title with a tremendous postseason performance (+4.5 Estimated RAPTOR), he followed that with the most WAR of his career in a single season (5.9) to go with career highs in points (21.2) and assists per game (6.5) and 3-point percentage (42.5).
Murray, 27, is at the peak of his abilities, and that makes Team Canada a real threat in this tournament.
13. Kevin Durant, United States
2024-25 age: 36 | Phoenix Suns
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.3 | Defense: -0.1 | Overall: +2.2
It might be surprising to see Durant ranked so low, outside the top 12 players in the Olympic field. But he is coming off a less effective season than usual, by his standards at least. While Durant stayed mostly healthy, appearing in 75 games for the first time since the injury-plagued end to his 2019-20 season, he still ranked 12th in the NBA in points scored per 100 team possessions. He also saw his offensive efficiency, assist rate and measures of on-court impact slip.
Durant, 35, posted his lowest Estimated RAPTOR (+3.2) since he was a 20-year-old NBA sophomore ... though it's a testament to his greatness that he still ranked 17th by WAR in a "down" season. We can all but guarantee nobody at the Olympics is looking forward to having to guard Durant.
12. LeBron James, United States
2024-25 age: 40 | Los Angeles Lakers
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.6 | Defense: -0.2 | Overall: +2.4
Unlike Durant, James' play saw no signs of dropping off last season despite turning 39 in December. (If anything, he turned back the clock with his best RAPTOR since 2020.) But his 2024-25 projection is in the same neighborhood as Durant's because we have very few examples of players continuing to be significantly above average at 40 or older.
As difficult as it is to envision, one of these seasons LeBron will no longer be the player whose greatness we've come to expect as a constant over the past two decades. For now, though, Team USA is counting on him being his usual legendary self -- and so far, so good.
11. Derrick White, United States
2024-25 age: 30 | Boston Celtics
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +1.8 | Defense: +1.2 | Overall: +3.0
While some of us have been Derrick White enjoyers for a long time, White finally got his flowers from a wider audience thanks to his postseason play as the Celtics won the NBA championship. White was a last-minute replacement on Team USA when Leonard withdrew this month, and he certainly isn't in Kawhi's class as a scorer.
But he makes up for it with an ability to do just about everything else at a high level, from shooting 3s and distributing the ball to playing disruptive defense. After his best pro season (9.4 WAR), now is the perfect time for White to make his mark at the Olympics as well.
10. Franz Wagner, Germany
2024-25 age: 23 | Orlando Magic
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.6 | Defense: +0.5 | Overall: +3.1
Estimated RAPTOR loves Wagner, who also showed up surprisingly high in our first-round NBA playoffs player rankings.
But it isn't every day when a 22-year-old hits the benchmarks that Wagner reached last season. He joined Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett as the only players since the 1976 NBA-ABA merger to rank in the 60th percentile of NBA players or better in points per 100 possessions, assist rate, turnover rate, rebound rate and defensive RAPTOR.
In that context, Wagner's massive recent contract extension was no surprise, and it's going to be exciting to see what he does alongside his brother Moritz and fellow NBA players Dennis Schroder and Daniel Theis on the German national team.
9. Anthony Davis, United States
2024-25 age: 31 | Los Angeles Lakers
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +1.8 | Defense: +1.3 | Overall: +3.1
In a welcomed sight for the Lakers -- and now for Team USA -- Davis was durable enough to play a career-high 76 games last season and produce 10.0 WAR, his most in a season since winning the championship during his Lakers debut in 2020. There's no doubting Davis' ability to affect the game at both ends of the court when he is healthy, and these projections still see him as one of the league's premier two-way stars.
As part of a stacked U.S. frontcourt, Davis will play a much larger role than when he averaged 3.7 PPG off the bench as a rookie on the gold medal-winning 2012 American squad in London.
8. Devin Booker, United States
2024-25 age: 28 | Phoenix Suns
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +3.9 | Defense: -0.6 | Overall: +3.3
Coming off the failure of the Suns' superteam, it will be nice to see Booker put his explosive scoring talents to use for a squad that might actually win something. Booker boasts one of the highest projected offensive RAPTOR scores in the Olympic field because he mixed volume and efficiency as well as anyone in the league last season; he was one of just six qualified players to score at least 36 points per 100 possessions while maintaining a True Shooting Percentage of at least 61. Toss in the league's 13th-highest assist rate, and Booker has all the tools to make an offense hum.
His defense is far from stellar -- he ranked 20th worst among qualified guards in defensive RAPTOR last season -- but Booker's ability to do so many different things on offense makes him a perfect fit in a tournament like this, playing next to countless other stars.
7. Anthony Edwards, United States
2024-25 age: 23 | Minnesota Timberwolves
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +2.5 | Defense: +1.0 | Overall: +3.5
Edwards' NBA trajectory is on the rise following the career season (9.9 WAR) he posted in 2023-24 as part of his Timberwolves' playoff run to rank among the league's best teams. He's the youngest member of Team USA (he'll turn 23 on Aug. 5, the day before the knockout round begins), but Edwards does have experience on a version of this stage, having averaged 18.9 PPG for the U.S. in last summer's FIBA World Cup. The Americans finished a disappointing fourth in that tournament, but it served as a springboard for Edwards' subsequent success.
Now he gets the chance to learn from -- and earn playing time alongside -- some of the most important names in U.S. basketball history, setting himself up as the future cornerstone of the program.
6. Tyrese Haliburton, United States
2024-25 age: 24 | Indiana Pacers
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +5.0 | Defense: -0.3 | Overall: +4.8
On the topic of breakout players from the 2023-24 NBA season, Haliburton continued his ascent into the league's upper echelons with an assist crown (10.9 per game), an All-NBA nod (third team), a pair of deep runs in the in-season tournament and the playoffs and a career-high 9.7 WAR.
Haliburton pulls ahead of Edwards here because he is only slightly older and had a much higher offensive rating and assist rate last season and a superior on-court influence on his team. Edwards is the better defender, though Haliburton doesn't rate as poorly as we might assume from Indiana's overall defensive struggles, and his all-around offensive efficiency numbers are unlike anything we'll see this side of Nikola Jokić.
5. Jayson Tatum, United States
2024-25 age: 26 | Boston Celtics
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +3.9 | Defense: +0.8 | Overall: +4.8
Tatum is a freshly crowned NBA champion, which brings a measure of validation for a player whose statistical résumé otherwise speaks for itself. Like he has been for the Celtics, Tatum is a skeleton key for Team USA with his ability to play multiple roles -- and positions -- all at a very high level.
As part of the dataset feeding these projections, Tatum recorded 72% of his minutes at power forward for Boston last season, the second-highest rate of his career. He won't have to do that as much on a roster already replete with frontcourt talent, which might free up Tatum to tap into more of his perimeter skills -- such as when he led the U.S. in 3-pointers per possession during the 2021 Olympics (though he probably will finish higher than last in assist rate this time around).
4. Joel Embiid, United States
2024-25 age: 30 | Philadelphia 76ers
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +4.9 | Defense: +0.6 | Overall: +5.5
Embiid's decision in October to represent the United States -- in honor of his son being born in America -- over France and Cameroon, his other nations of citizenship, changed the landscape of these rankings. Instead of international players making up the top four, including every player projected for an Estimated RAPTOR of +5 or higher, Embiid gives the U.S. yet another high entry on the list (the Americans have six of the top 10 and nine of the top 15).
Embiid makes his 7-foot presence known in all phases of the game, including as a rim protector and rebounder, but he is also the scorer of all scorers, even on a team full of them. No active player has a better career points per 100 possessions average than Embiid's 42.5 mark, making him the best bucket-getter in this Olympic tournament.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greece
2024-25 age: 30 | Milwaukee Bucks
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +5.2 | Defense: +0.8 | Overall: +5.9
Greece has one active NBA player on its roster. But if you can have only a single entry on this list, you could do a lot worse than a player who has finished no worse than fourth in MVP balloting in any NBA season since 2017-18.
It was unfortunate we didn't see Antetokounmpo play a minute in the playoffs because of a calf strain, but he is back for Paris and, in fact, was Greece's flag-bearer at the opening ceremonies.
Giannis is still in his prime as one of the league's most dominant players at both ends, and it will be a joy to watch him compete in his first trip to the Olympics, as Greece had not previously qualified since the 2008 Games. Shooting is still Antetokounmpo's biggest weakness -- he averaged his fewest made 3s per 100 possessions since 2015-16 last season -- but that didn't stop him from ranking third in points per 100 and third in offensive RAPTOR.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Canada
2024-25 age: 26 | Oklahoma City Thunder
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +5.6 | Defense: +0.9 | Overall: +6.4
Though his Thunder fell short in the playoffs against the Dallas Mavericks, Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP-level ascent was one of the best stories of the 2023-24 NBA season. Now he is the face of a Canadian basketball program that has also leveled its profile on the international scene.
Practically every member of Canada's roster is an NBA player, many of whom are quite good even if they didn't make this list. (Apologies to Andrew Nembhard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, RJ Barrett and Luguentz Dort.) The best is Gilgeous-Alexander, though, and he is coming off a career-best +8.8 Estimated RAPTOR and 16.4 WAR in 2023-24.
The projections are building in a bit of regression to the mean from those rates in 2024-25, but Gilgeous-Alexander is also young enough on the aging curve to improve his underlying skills, which include elite scoring, efficiency, passing and defense.
Of the 10 most similar seasons to SGA at the same age last season, four belonged to Michael Jordan, two to LeBron James, two to Dwyane Wade, one to Kawhi Leonard and one to Kobe Bryant. That's the type of player Gilgeous-Alexander has become in a very short time.
1. Nikola Jokić, Serbia
2024-25 age: 29 | Denver Nuggets
2024-25 estimated projections:
Offense: +6.4 | Defense: +1.4 | Overall: +7.9
Is it really any surprise Jokić projects as the best NBA player at the Olympics? The reigning league MVP has won the award in three of the past four seasons -- and 2023-24 was his best yet by total value, with a career-high 17.9 WAR in 79 games. One of the common critiques of advanced stats as they pertain to Jokić is that his defense always grades extremely well (he has the fifth-best projected defensive RAPTOR here), something that defies his long-standing reputation and the eye test.
But Jokić is deceptively active on defense -- he was one of only 20 qualified players to rank among the top 30% of players in both steal and block rate -- and he helped the Nuggets rank eighth in defensive rating with a sizable negative split (which is good when trying to allow fewer points) while he was on the court. It's another way in which Jokić is one of history's more misunderstood superstars, and he'll bring that performance to just his second career Olympic appearance in Paris.
Just missed the list
Jrue Holiday, USA
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Serbia
Moritz Wagner, Germany
Luguentz Dort, Canada
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Canada