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          What's next for NFL second-year QBs: Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis

          Can Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson take the next step in 2024? AP Photo/Darron Cummings
          • Ben Solak, ESPNAug 8, 2024, 06:35 PM
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              Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.

          Rookie quarterbacks were a massive part of the 2023 NFL season. Eight first-year passers started at least four games last season, which tied 2019 for the most in a single season. That included Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, Aidan O'Connell, Tyson Bagent, Jake Browning and Tommy DeVito.

          Some were surprisingly good, but one was surprisingly rough. And who can forget all the memes that DeVito offered us. Truly, a class for the history books.

          • "ESPN Daily" podcast: Solak talks young QBs
          • "The Mina Kimes Show": Solak gives award predictions

          As we turn our eyes to the 2024 season, four of the eight are expected to start in Week 1 and plant their flags as franchise quarterbacks. For Stroud, that victory is already won. For Richardson and Levis, there are plenty of reasons for excitement. And for Young, the road uphill is a long and difficult one. I broke down what we know -- and what we've yet to find out -- about each of the four presumed sophomore starters entering the 2024 season. (And I gave a little love to O'Connell at the end, too, as he battles for the starting job in Las Vegas.)

          Jump to a QB:
          Young | Stroud | Richardson
          Levis | O'Connell

          Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (No. 1 pick)

          2023 stats: 2,877 passing yards, 11 TD throws, 10 interceptions and 33.4 QBR

          What we know: It wasn't all his fault last season ... but some of it definitely was.

          Young's rookie season was one of the worst we've seen from a quarterback in quite some time. Of the 50 rookie passers to attempt at least 200 passes since 2010, Young's EPA per dropback (minus-0.17) is better than only Jared Goff, Josh Rosen, Jimmy Clausen and Blaine Gabbert. Rosen and Clausen lost their starting jobs to first-round draft picks just one season after they were selected; Gabbert lost his two years after he was drafted. It is worth wondering whether the Panthers would have selected Caleb Williams and sent Young the way of Clausen and Rosen had they kept their first-round pick in this year's draft.

          If that feels unfair, it is. Young wasn't the sole author of his poor rookie season. The Panthers' roster was in no condition to foster a young quarterback's development last season.

          The first and greatest culprit was the play of the offensive line. Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, a first-round selection in 2022, was a liability for much of the season -- his 82.2% pass block win rate was 61st of 69 qualifying tackles and last among players to take at least 500 snaps at left tackle. The ever-present threat of blindside pressure quickly turned Young, a cool and calm pocket manager at Alabama, into a jumpy escape artist.

          Ekwonu was far from the only issue on the line. An injury-riddled carousel of guard play regularly surrendered quick pressure up the interior -- frustrating for any quarterback but particularly tough on a shorter quarterback like the 5-foot-10 Young, who needs space in the pocket to see routes and defenders in the middle of the field. In total, Young was pressured on 35% of his dropbacks last season (league average was 30%) and sacked on 10% of his dropbacks (league average was 6.5%).

          Let's not blame only the offensive line, though. The line's pass block win rate as a unit was 23rd in the league (54.3%) -- below average but not prohibitively awful. Sack avoidance is one of the most valuable traits a quarterback can have, whether it be escaping the pressure, finding the checkdown or just throwing the ball away. And Young demonstrated a concerning lack of sack avoidance last season. Only Ryan Tannehill, Bailey Zappe and Desmond Ridder allowed a greater percentage of their pressures to turn into sacks last season. All three of those players are out of a starting job this year.

          Watch Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons sack Young on this play-action dropback in Week 12 last season. Simmons gets a good initial push, but he doesn't clear guard Cade Mays until Young is well into his dropback. When Simmons does indeed get an angle on Young, he's still over 4 yards away. There is ample time in this down for Young to escape Simmons in a myriad of ways, but he turtles in the pocket and takes a sack on first-and-10. Sure, receiver DJ Chark Jr., whom Young wants to target, runs a bad route, and Mays no doubt loses the rep to Simmons. But that's poor quarterbacking no matter which way you slice it.

          Again, a common refrain in defense of Young last season concerned his supporting cast of wide receivers. On this rep, Chark is juiceless. He doesn't get downfield quickly enough, nor does he displace cornerback Kristian Fulton enough to break into the post where Young would like to throw. By ESPN's receiver tracking metrics' open score, Chark was one of the worst separators in the NFL last season, ranking 143rd out of 153 qualifying wide receivers and tight ends. Teammate Jonathan Mingo, a second-round rookie, was even worse at 152nd.

          But while separation was a rare commodity for Carolina's receiving corps, Young deserves his share of the blame for wasting it when it came. Watch another deep dropback against the Titans, with Adam Thielen -- 37th by open score and the clear WR1 for Young last season -- opening up on the backside dig. You cannot ask for an easier dig window in the NFL, yet Young is not prepared to make the throw. His feet aren't set and his eyes are late to the route.

          Young attempts this throw late and outside of structure, and throwing across your body with no base is challenging for any quarterback in the NFL, let alone a rookie with only an average arm. What should have been a chunk gain nearly ends up an interception twice over.

          What we don't know: Can he be magical enough?

          After such a poor season, it's easy to forget why Young was selected with the first overall pick in a stacked quarterback class. Young garnered Steph Curry comparisons at Alabama for his quick release, pinpoint accuracy and ability to get a throw off from almost any platform. What he did on the field often felt impossible, much like what Curry does on the court.

          Of course, there's another reason Young was compared to Curry: There aren't good size and play-style comparisons for Young as an NFL quarterback. Young entered the league as a remarkable size outlier. At 204 pounds, he was the lightest quarterback selected in the first round since Jim McMahon in 1982. And at 5-10, he joined Kyler Murray as the only two quarterbacks under 6 feet tall selected in Round 1 during the Super Bowl era.

          To be a good QB at this size, you simply have to be a preposterous outlier in other ways. Drew Brees (6-foot, 209 pounds) won with nearly unprecedented accuracy from the pocket. Michael Vick (6-foot, 210 pounds) was one of the greatest rushing quarterbacks in history. While Young has good accuracy, he's no Brees. While Young has good mobility, he's no Vick.

          Young's cardinal trait in college -- the great equalizer for his size limitations -- was his ability to create off-script magic. In his rookie season, there were moments of that magician. Take this Week 8 throw to Thielen on a corner route, for instance. Watch how quickly Young finds a throwing platform after breaking away from contact in the pocket. That's a special play.

          Young must access more of these plays in Year 2. First-year general manager Dan Morgan addressed pass protection aggressively, spending $100 million on former Dolphins guard Robert Hunt and another $53 million on former Seahawks guard Damien Lewis. But with question marks at center and left tackle, pass protection issues will likely remain to some degree. And while the trade for Steelers WR Diontae Johnson was a smart move, the Panthers' wide receiver corps is still limited for big-play potential. The in-structure offense for the Panthers, no matter the best efforts of new coach and playcaller Dave Canales, will almost certainly leave much to be desired.

          So Young must win out of structure, just as he did at Alabama. It is a tall task for Young, who is quick but not fast and struggles to break tackles given his play strength. His arm also limits his game, both in and out of structure. He can access every throw, but his passes often lack the requisite zip to attack tight windows. Ideally, a quarterback of this mold plays in an offense like the Dolphins', so rife with team speed and easy throws that explosive plays are almost inevitable. But the Panthers aren't close to that, so Young will be asked to create those accordingly.

          C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (No. 2 pick)

          2023 stats: 4,108 passing yards, 23 TD throws (3 rushing scores), 5 interceptions and 57.5 QBR

          What we know: He can really spin it.

          Stroud is a delight. He did a couple of things that you rarely see rookie quarterbacks do -- even the good ones. His process was polished, as he moved defenders with little flicks of the eyes and tilts of the shoulders. He walked up to the line of scrimmage and beat opposing defensive coordinators before the ball was snapped, diagnosing blitzes and anticipating coverage shells like a seasoned vet.

          But most importantly and impressively, Stroud was aggressive. The absolute joy of watching him play is how consistently he hunts the big play.

          This rep against the Bengals (Week 10) is one of my favorites. The concept -- the deep over route running underneath a post -- is in just about every playbook and is certainly a favorite of the Shanahan offense that Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik deploys. Off a play-action fake and rolling to his right, Stroud should throw the over route working from left to right with his momentum. That's what an ordinary human would do.

          A superhuman? A superhuman digs his feet into the hashmarks, finds the post working further downfield and opposite his momentum and rips that sucker. From the 10-yard line all the way to the 50, mind you.

          It's this mentality that made Stroud's rookie season not just impressive but truly sensational. Stroud was second in air yards per attempt (8.7) last season and third in explosive play rate (17.7%). On throws of at least 20 air yards, he was third in overall completion rate (56.4%) and fourth in completion rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats (12.1%). He also didn't throw a pick on 55 such pass attempts. The rookie quarterback sauntered into the league and immediately became one of the most prolific and most successful downfield passers. That's cool and also not typical.

          If you're going to be this aggressive as a passer, you had better have the arm to back it up. It takes explosive zip to hit tight windows against the sideline. It takes a feather touch to drop crossers behind linebackers and in front of safeties. And it takes an absolute cannon to throw the clear-out route that nobody else throws. You need every arrow in the quiver, and Stroud has them all.

          Do you remember Stroud's first play in Week 18 against the Colts? Playoff bid on the line and playing on the road. Sixty yards in the air. Getting hit in the pocket. Receiver Nico Collins barely breaks stride. Big post against quarters coverage. That's the stuff dreams are made of, kids.

          A throw like this is brutal for a defense. The Colts want to be in quarters coverage because it helps them take away the intermediate in-breakers that the Texans' offense, like all Shanahan offenses, lives off. But when the quarterback running that offense can immediately punish you with a 75-yard score over the top, it's harder to call that coverage the next time around -- and now it's harder to take away the intermediate middle.

          As the Shanahan offense has exploded across the league, it has largely raised the floor of solid but unspectacular passers -- guys such as Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo and Goff. Yet when elite passers get their hands on this playbook, they win MVPs (Aaron Rodgers) and Super Bowls (Matthew Stafford). Stroud looks to belong in the second group, not the first. It might be smart for him to invest in a nice trophy case.

          What we don't know: Can he hold up under the pressure?

          Forgive the wordplay here, but it's a two-layered issue. The first pressure comes from the lofty expectations everyone holds for him. With his victory over the Browns in last season's wild-card round, Stroud became the youngest starting quarterback to win a playoff game. And with that, expectations are set for the young passer going forward. To lose in the wild-card round this season would be a failure. And with the offseason acquisitions of receiver Stefon Diggs and edge rusher Danielle Hunter, the Texans are behind only six teams in Super Bowl odds (tied with the Bills at 16-1). In just his second season, Stroud is expected to potentially lead a championship run.

          But what happens if the offense starts a little flat? As Diggs is integrated and fellow receiver Tank Dell returns from injury, there will be some growing pains as target distribution is sorted out. Will team chemistry endure that frustration? What if Stroud's aggression turns into fewer explosives and more interceptions? There are many ways that a season can go sideways, and Stroud has yet to experience the ups and downs that many veteran quarterbacks have in the past.

          More directly to the point, Stroud was pretty seriously affected by both pass-rush pressure and the blitz last season. It makes sense. As a pocket passer with a downfield mentality, he was both hesitant to check the ball down and less effective on the move than he was from the pocket. One of the knocks on Stroud when he was coming out of college was his lack of creativity and second-reaction plays, and while he was better in that area than many expected, it's still the weaker side of his game.

          Another way of reading this, of course, is that if the Texans keep Stroud clean, he is going to conquer the world. Stroud was pressured on 32% of his dropbacks last season, an above-average rate. The injury bug bit the Texans' offensive line more than almost any other position group in football, as only guard Shaq Mason played more than 81% of the snaps on the season and 10 offensive linemen played at least 20% of the snaps. That level of shuffling creates communication issues and surrenders easy pressures.

          Schematically, the Texans' offense often welcomes pressure, too. Hard play-action fakes often leave tight ends blocking defensive ends; rollouts invite unblocked linebackers to pursue Stroud into the sideline. So should the Texans consider making schematic changes to protect Stroud from such dropbacks? Well, here's another rep against the Bengals.

          Stroud's numbers certainly fell off when pressured, but man, when you watch him, it doesn't feel that way. Should the offensive line enjoy more continuity and improved play this season, I think Stroud can more than handle his side of the bargain when pressure indeed sneaks through.

          Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (No. 4 pick)

          2023 stats: 557 passing yards, 3 TD throws (four rushing scores), 1 interception and 45.0 QBR

          What we know: He's big and fast, and he has a huge arm -- but don't sleep on the cerebral parts of his game.

          At first glance, Richardson looks like a developmental quarterback. Of course, you don't get a 244-pounder who runs a 4.43-second 40-yard dash in every draft class, so why not take the Cam Newton clone and see if you can make him into something? While it is usually reasonable to expect a passer with fewer than 400 college attempts to enter the league lacking polished quarterbacking skills -- anticipation, progression and eye manipulation -- that is not the case with Richardson. He played only four games before a shoulder injury ended his debut season, and he had plenty of ups and downs, but the flashes of advanced quarterbacking are there.

          Here's a great example of Richardson's budding work as a pocket passer. In Week 2 against the Texans, he wants to throw an in-breaking route to Michael Pittman Jr., who is wrapping just behind a curl route from tight end Kylen Granson.

          There are two mistakes from Richardson on this rep. The first is choosing to throw to Pittman at all. With the safety stepping down to join the cornerback and bracket Pittman, any in-breaking route from Pittman will run right into the safety's lap. Of course, the safety is a little far upfield, so maybe he can get away with it.

          And that's where the second mistake comes in. Richardson hesitates on this throw and is accordingly late to the release. Instead of digging his back foot into the ground and firing the moment he finishes his drop, he resets his feet and shoulders before beginning his throwing motion. The delay between choosing to target Pittman and actually starting the throw feels inconsequential, but in such a tight window, it's the difference between a completion and a pass breakup.

          That was a prototypical rookie rep from Richardson. But three weeks later, in Week 5 against the Titans, those wrinkles have been ironed out. Look for the same concept, this time to the top of the formation, with Richardson targeting TE Alec Ogletree wrapping behind WR Josh Downs.

          Delightful. Look at the footwork in the pocket. Richardson quickly gets to a throwing platform and starts his motion long before Ogletree has broken into his route. In fact, the ball is already out of Richardson's hand before Ogletree has even cleared the Titans cornerback covering Downs. He even uses a little sidearm in his release to get the ball out faster. That is pro quarterbacking, and the velocity and placement on the throw couldn't be better.

          These quick-game reps for Richardson are important, because coach Shane Steichen will insist on his success in the quick game as a run-pass option passer from the shotgun. It's tempting to assume an offense with Richardson, as big (6-foot-4, 244 pounds) and mobile as he is, will be built on long dropbacks and deep throws. But his 2.74-second time to throw last season was just below league average, and 47% of his throws were out in under 2.5 seconds, better than league average. Richardson was a quick and natural distributor from the pocket last season, and that will remain the bread and butter of the Colts' passing attack with him at the helm in 2024.

          Now, when Richardson is not able to get rid of the ball quickly -- whether it's because the defense covers his initial read or because of a rookie mistake -- his physical traits allow him to win late in the down. On this play-action concept in Week 4 against the Rams, tight end Mo Alie-Cox is open right away on the in-breaking route at the top of the screen, and Richardson should throw it to him from the pocket in rhythm.

          Richardson is a little slow unpacking the motion of linebacker Ernest Jones IV (No. 53) and safety Jordan Fuller (No. 4), and by the time he is hitching up in the pocket with his eyes on Alie-Cox, the window to throw has been closed by Jones. But being an excellent pocket manager with a great sense of when to buy time and when to break contain, he scrambles to his right. His gravity pulls Jones toward the line of scrimmage. As Richardson is moving, his left foot catches on his lineman's ankle, yet he's still able while falling to launch a fast and accurate football to Alie-Cox in the late window. His tight end turns upfield and finishes the job.

          A quarterback with less poise and less arm talent than Richardson wouldn't have been able to salvage this play, just as a quarterback more comfortable reading slot blitzes and safety rotations might have made it from the pocket. That's the truly special thing about Richardson, who is still so green at the position: He has the capacity to make great plays outside of structure, but he doesn't rely on it as a crutch. He's working hard to have a developed game from the pocket. Richardson is far from a finished product, but he's further along than most folks realize.

          What we don't know: Can he stay on the field to develop?

          I would argue Richardson is a natural quarterback. He has an inherent understanding of space, timing, pressure and flow, and his instincts lead him right far more often than they lead him wrong. But he is extremely inconsistent, and his high peaks and low valleys are likely the result of inexperience.

          His accuracy issues come from a bevy of sources -- inconsistent mechanics in both his upper and lower halves, misunderstandings with receivers on route depth and coverage adjustments and just plain ol' forcing the ball. Again, be wary of small samples, but Richardson was off-target on over 22% of his throws last season, which is a worryingly high figure. If you want to smooth out throwing mechanics and receiver communication, you need reps throwing the ball to those receivers. But Richardson, who was already low on reps entering the league, lost hundreds of precious dropbacks to injury last season.

          While he regularly makes the right reads, his process needs to speed up from college tempo to NFL tempo. He's often just a tick late -- not so late that he ruins plays, or always late, such that he limits the offense that Steichen can call. But he must adjust to NFL game speed, which takes ... you guessed it ... reps. Richardson needs to stay on the field and accrue experience, and as he stacks days, he'll gradually smooth over those rough edges.

          As they say, the best ability is availability, and for all of his astonishing ability, Richardson was not available last season. He was injured three (maybe more like 2.5) times in five games. He left his Week 1 debut with a minute left after taking a bad hit to his knee, he pulled himself from his Week 2 appearance after sustaining a concussion while being tackled, and his season ended in Week 5 when a Titans tackler landed on him and separated his AC joint. All three injuries came on plays when Richardson was a runner, not a passer.

          play
          1:22
          How C.J. Stroud became an MVP candidate

          The "Get Up" crew discuss how C.J. Stroud became such a popular early betting candidate for MVP.

          Of course, the Colts are going to keep running with Richardson. He's too dangerous as a rusher (see: 244 pounds, 4.43 40-yard dash) to keep him cooped up. As Steichen said to reporters in July, "Are you going to limit Steph Curry from shooting 3-pointers?"

          But three injuries on 25 rush attempts is worrisome stuff. If Richardson continues to suffer contact injuries that rob him of practice time and game opportunities, he'll never take the developmental strides necessary to make the leap.

          While Richardson's injuries have come on runs to this point, it is possible to be a dual-threat quarterback in this league and stay healthy. Josh Allen has over 100 rushing attempts in each of the past five seasons and has not missed a game with injury in that time. Lamar Jackson, the only QB with more rushing attempts than Allen since 2019, has missed time with an ankle sprain and PCL sprain, but both injuries came on tackles behind the line of scrimmage as Jackson tried to escape pressure.

          But Richardson isn't Allen or Jackson. Much like how he must learn to speed up his process and settle his inaccuracy, he also must learn how to avoid hits, even at the cost of a few extra yards. It's a tough balance to strike -- the aggressive big-play hunter at quarterback who waves the white flag and hops out of bounds the moment he sees contact approaching. But stringing together successive games is more important for Richardson than any other quarterback in this class and arguably any other quarterback in the NFL.

          Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (No. 33 pick)

          2023 stats: 1,808 passing yards, 8 TD throws (1 rushing score), 4 interceptions and 33.2 QBR

          What we know: There's something here.

          The Titans' offense last season was unhealthy. Not in the sense that there were lots of injuries (though it was pretty banged up) but rather it was just not a pleasant, proportioned, sustainable, well-functioning system.

          Here's a good explainer. Over 21% of Levis' pass attempts last season traveled more than 20 air yards downfield. The next closest was Justin Fields at 15%. Levis relied on the deep ball more than even 2018 Josh Allen, who was deployed as a medieval trebuchet in his rookie season (20%). Since 2010, only 2011 Tim Tebow attempted a greater percentage of his passes downfield than Levis did last season (22%).

          Simultaneously, over 25% of Levis' pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage. Think about that: Nearly half of Levis' total pass attempts were either deep shots or screens/checkdowns. That is as polar of a pass distribution as there has ever been. Of the 486 qualifying quarterback seasons since 2010, Levis' rate of throwing 0-19 yards downfield is stone-cold last (59%).

          Now, that's kind of weird, but is it meaningful? I'd say yes. Think of pass locations like the food pyramid: Of course, you can have your favorite food groups, but you need a balanced diet to survive. No NFL offense would be sustainable on dump-offs and moon balls, just as little Ben Solak wasn't allowed to live on cheese and Reese's Puffs when he was 8 years old. You have to eat your veggies, and you have to throw the quick game and intermediate breakers.

          The passing distribution last season does not allow for a proper evaluation of Levis, as it did not put a holistic offense at his fingertips. That's something new coach Brian Callahan will certainly change, especially now that the offensive depth chart is buttressed with new additions such as WRs Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd and offensive tackle JC Latham. And despite the polarized offense, we saw enough flashes from Levis to be interested in his development in the Callahan offense.

          It's understandable why the Titans let him uncork a disproportionate rate of deep shots. When he debuted in Week 8 in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill, he shocked the Falcons with four touchdown passes, three of which were 20-plus air yards downfield. On the final touchdown throw, Levis showed why the Titans wanted him pushing the ball so often. He has enough arm and enough toughness to make an accurate throw 55 yards in the air while getting hit.

          Now, this is a schemed pass. Levis is always stopping his rollout and throwing back the other way. It's different from the Stroud throw we talked about earlier, which looks similar but is actually being processed on the field in real time by Stroud. Plenty of Levis' deep throws were like this -- designer plays to rip off a chunk gain following some sort of play-action or misdirection -- and plenty were decisions that he made on the field as well.

          Levis' arm talent should translate to good intermediate throws, too. While we didn't get too many glimpses of this last season, we can extrapolate from Levis' college career. In 2021 at Kentucky, Levis was coached by Liam Coen, a Sean McVay disciple now calling offense for Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. In that pro-style offense, Levis regularly delivered to the middle of the field with anticipation, zip and quality post-snap processing. But NFL windows open faster and close faster, and Levis' mind was still working at college speeds for much of the 2023 season.

          The good news is he has the physical tool kit to give himself some cushion. Here's a great example against the Dolphins in Week 14, where Levis' first read -- a dig from Chris Moore -- is open immediately off the play-action fake. Despite the clear void in the middle of the field, he double-clutches, uncertain of his read.

          That sort of hesitation can burn you, but Levis is able to get away with it this time. A fast release and blistering throw help him get the ball to Moore before he runs into coverage. And look at the ball placement. Levis holds Moore from careening into the waiting safety, which both protects the WR from a bad hit and gives him an opportunity for yards after the catch. A player who is capable of this throw is physically capable of running an NFL offense, but a player who hesitates on a window like this can leave a lot of meat on the bone.

          One last important thing we know about Levis: His response to pressure is poor, which is what you expect from a rookie. In a screen-and-shots offense, pressure is what you sign up for, and behind an offensive line that rivaled the Panthers' unit for most easy pressures surrendered, you sign up for twice as many. But Levis turned pressures to sacks at the same rate that Young did last season, and while he paid it off with far more explosive plays, his success rate was only marginally better than Young's. Levis flashed more brightly and more frequently, to be sure, but he is at risk of handicapping his offense if he doesn't learn how to eat bad plays and live to fight another down.

          What we don't know: Can he handle more on his plate?

          The wheel of the Titans' offense was largely taken out of Levis' hands last season. A lot of play-action, a lot of screens and a lot of schemed deep shots left little room for pure dropback processing. It was rare to see the Titans give Levis a route concept on the front side, a route concept on the backside and the freedom to choose what to do with all of it.

          When he got those opportunities, he did impress. Here's a nice rep of Levis getting to a backside route by reading the intentions of the safety to the bottom of the screen. This route is available only if the safety gives enough space to the middle of the field, and he does ... just barely. Levis doesn't hesitate this time; he's decisive, and that fast delivery and laser of an arm show up again.

          This sort of play -- shotgun with five routes in the concept, pick a side -- is the bread and butter of Callahan's offense as captained by Joe Burrow in Cincinnati for the past few seasons. While Callahan will certainly meet Levis in the middle and incorporate many of the play-action fakes and max-protection deep balls that Levis enjoyed last season, executing a concept like the play above is a nonnegotiable for success in the Callahan offense. The kid gloves are about to come off, and we will learn a lot about Levis' future in the league accordingly.

          I'm inclined to believe Levis can do it, but I'm going off college film and a small rookie sample to make that claim. Making fast decisions in the immediate post-snap window is critical, and Levis is a quick decision-maker (except for those times when he isn't). When Levis is knocked off-script by a covered initial read, he often freezes in the pocket and isn't sure where to go next. Everyone has a plan until their first read gets locked up, so he must learn how to survive later in the down.

          In this way, Levis is perhaps the only prototypical rookie quarterback of the bunch. Most rookies rely on their physical tools to get away with slow processing and uncertain progressions. They regularly bite off more than they can chew and don't yet know how to modulate risk and reward. Stroud was a savant, Young was a disaster and Richardson was a blaze of glory before injury ended his season. Levis is just about what you'd expect.

          Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (No. 135 pick)

          2023 stats: 2,218 passing yards, 12 TD throws (1 rushing score), 7 interceptions and 40.5 QBR

          What we don't know: Will he even win the starting job?

          I'm starting with what we don't know for O'Connell because it's a massive question for what's next. There's less to be said about how the Raiders have built around him, because they didn't really. They spent good backup/spot-starter money on Gardner Minshew, who's coming off a perfectly acceptable season with the Colts, and it's my expectation that he'll be the Week 1 starter.

          So we don't know what the future holds for O'Connell -- how many reps he'll get, when he'll get them and if he'll even have a puncher's chance of holding on to the starting job when he gets them. But we do know how he played last season ...

          What we know: He can definitely hang in the league. But as a QB1? Probably not.

          O'Connell is an unspectacular quarterback with a low ceiling. He doesn't have great movement skills or a big arm, so the field is condensed with him under center. When he does deliver an eye-popping play, it's usually a touch throw delivered early in the down and with confidence. O'Connell does indeed have the ability to drop a ball in a bucket every now and then.

          This sort of rep -- from the Raiders' big win over the Chargers in Week 15 -- is how you succeed as a physically limited passer. Find a one-on-one quickly, throw in rhythm and let your talented receivers work for you. When operating in the quick game (throws under 2.5 seconds), O'Connell was actually right around league average in EPA per dropback. If O'Connell does start substantial games for the Raiders this season, I like the potential of tight end Brock Bowers (an excellent YAC threat) joining quick-separating receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to form a nice quick-game safety net for him. Let him play point guard, and this offense can be efficient.

          The issue is that O'Connell is not consistently accurate enough to sustain that sort of play style. Only Levis and Kyler Murray had a worse completion percentage over expectation last season than his minus-2.3%, and both of those players were paying it off with explosive plays (Levis with deep shots, Murray with scrambles). O'Connell is remarkably below average in both intended air yards and explosive play rate, and he does not have any scramble ability to speak of. He's a dink-and-dunk quarterback without the pinpoint precision necessary to sustain this.

          Should he get a year's worth of reps this season, he might grow out of it. His accuracy can improve, which would make the quick-distribution build more viable. Or he could continue to hone his deep passing game. O'Connell started unlocking an under-center play-action pass game down the stretch last season, ending up with 62 such dropbacks and seeing improvement to his depth of target, EPA per dropback and off-target throw rate. Big plays would need to come from there, should O'Connell hope to become a viable starter in the league.