When it comes to marketing, counting cards beats throwing dice.

Thanks to Daniel Kahneman the idiosyncrasies of human behaviour are increasingly well known.

A nice gambling example involves a thought experiment of a lottery with ten tickets, a $1 ticket price and a $20 prize. When presented this way almost everyone buys in. With enough money and time you are guaranteed to double your money. Minimal risk, lots of reward. However, when the same lottery is presented with your mate Dave having the nine other tickets most people don’t play. Same lottery, same risk-reward but it feels different. Casinos are also full of idiosyncratic behaviour and poor risk-reward management, possibly due to too many G&Ts. Putting it all on 25 is far more speculative than the measured tactics displayed by (some) blackjack players. One is a total punt with fixed, low odds. The other