A MAJOR POWER IN EASTERNEurope, an empire that has seen better days and with a long-standing grievance against a much smaller neighbour. It begins a military build-up which many think is a diplomatic bluff — right up to the point when invading troops pour across the border. To general surprise, the smaller power puts up a much tougher fight than anticipated. The invading troops take heavy losses, get sucked into a war of attrition, and the invading state faces humiliation in the eyes of the world.
All this sounds familiar from recent headlines. It actually describes the situation in the Balkans following the assassination in Sarajevo of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of
