IVAN COLHOUN OUTLOOK
Some may have heard the joke about the economist and the weather forecaster, the punchline being that one profession exists to give the other credibility. A few years ago, a forecaster from the Bureau of Meteorology spoke at a gathering of economists. I found that much of the weather forecaster’s approach could be applied to economic forecasting, and to forecasting in general.
The two key takeaways for me were:
• The starting point is important. Weather forecasters spend a lot of time collecting information about and understanding current weather conditions across the country. This is,
