Curing Corporate Short-Termism: Future Growth vs. Current Earnings
()
About this ebook
Curing Corporate Short-Termism is a guide for senior managers who want to encourage more investment in the future of their companies, all while maintaining discipline around profitability and capital productivity. Many corporate practices create stiff headwinds for managers trying to grow their business. This book explores the process o
Gregory V. Milano
Gregory V. Milano is the founder and chief executive officer of Fortuna Advisors LLC. A leading expert in capital allocation, behavioral finance, and incentive compensation design, he has nearly 30 years' experience in management consulting. Before founding Fortuna Advisors, he was a partner at Stern Stewart and a managing director at Credit Suisse. He began his career as flight systems design engineer with the Grumman Corporation. He has appeared on Bloomberg TV, CNBC and Sky Business News, and his research has been featured in Fortune, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, among other publications.
Related to Curing Corporate Short-Termism
Related ebooks
Outperform with Expectations-Based Management: A State-of-the-Art Approach to Creating and Enhancing Shareholder Value Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsAlignment (Review and Analysis of Kaplan and Norton's Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsRenvoi Business Management Cases Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsFinancial analysis – Tesco Plc: Model Answer Series Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsCorporate Value Creation: An Operations Framework for Nonfinancial Managers Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Project Profitability: Ensuring Improvement Projects Achieve Maximum Cash ROI Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSummary of Bruce Cleveland's Traversing the Traction Gap Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsGoliath's Revenge: How Established Companies Turn the Tables on Digital Disruptors Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSales Predictability: Leveraging Analytics to Successfully Predict Business Results Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Value Killers: How Mergers and Acquisitions Cost Companies Billions—And How to Prevent It Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsReversing the Slide: A Strategic Guide to Turnarounds and Corporate Renewal Rating: 2 out of 5 stars2/5It all begins with Insights: A quick guide to maximizing the value of your business Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsPost-merger integration A Complete Guide - 2019 Edition Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsCorporate development The Ultimate Step-By-Step Guide Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsHow to lead through M&A using 20 easy insights Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsPainting with Numbers: Presenting Financials and Other Numbers So People Will Understand You Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe EVA Challenge (Review and Analysis of Stern and Shiely's Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsPrivate Equity Unchained: Strategy Insights for the Institutional Investor Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsFinancial Management: USGAAP and IFRS Standards Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsYour Exit Map: Navigating the Boomer Bust Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsBusiness Ratios and Formulas: A Comprehensive Guide Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5The Value Proposition: Sionna's Common Sense Path to Investment Success Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsDetermination of Value: Appraisal Guidance on Developing and Supporting a Credible Opinion Rating: 1 out of 5 stars1/5How to Lead a Corporate Spin-Off: The Tech Leader’s Survival Guide to a Strategic Divestiture Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsTranslating Strategy into Shareholder Value: A Company-Wide Approach to Value Creation Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsActive Investing in the Age of Disruption Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsBusiness Analytics for Managers Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe New CFO Financial Leadership Manual Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Invisible Advantage (Review and Analysis of Low and Kalafut's Book) Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsFinancial statement analysis A Complete Guide Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings
Corporate Finance For You
Mastering Private Equity: Transformation via Venture Capital, Minority Investments and Buyouts Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings2023 Series 7 No-Fluff Study Guide with Practice Test Questions and Answers Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThese Are the Plunderers: How Private Equity Runs—and Wrecks—America Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Venture Deals: Be Smarter Than Your Lawyer and Venture Capitalist Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap...And Others Don't Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Good To Great And The Social Sectors: A Monograph to Accompany Good to Great Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Finance Basics (HBR 20-Minute Manager Series) Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Mind over Money: The Psychology of Money and How to Use It Better Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Fundraising Strategy Playbook: An Entrepreneur's Guide To Pitching, Raising Venture Capital, and Financing a Startup Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSummary of The Black Swan: by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Includes Analysis Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The 17 Indisputable Laws of Teamwork Workbook: Embrace Them and Empower Your Team Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsLLC or Corporation?: Choose the Right Form for Your Business Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Business Valuation For Dummies Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Financial Planning & Analysis and Performance Management Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5Finance Your Business: Secure Funding to Start, Run, and Grow Your Business Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings2019 Business Credit with no Personal Guarantee: Get over 200K in Business Credit without using your SSN Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Mergers and Acquisitions from A to Z Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Burn the Boats: Toss Plan B Overboard and Unleash Your Full Potential Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsCorporate Finance: A Simple Introduction Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Essentials of Venture Capital Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Value: The Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Illusion of Innovation: Escape "Efficiency" and Unleash Radical Progress Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Wisdom Of Finance: Discovering Humanity in the World of Risk and Return Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Warren Buffett Book of Investing Wisdom: 350 Quotes from the World's Most Successful Investor Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5
Reviews for Curing Corporate Short-Termism
0 ratings0 reviews
Book preview
Curing Corporate Short-Termism - Gregory V. Milano
© 2020 by Gregory V. Milano. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any manner whatsoever, without the prior written permission of the author except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.
Printed in the United States of America.
ISBN: 978-1-7341551-0-5 (hardcover)
ISBN: 978-1-7341551-1-2 (softcover)
ISBN: 978-1-7341551-2-9 (ebook)
Content Editor: Michael Chew
Cover and Interior Design: Diana Russell, DianaRussellDesign.com
Copyeditor: Mark Woodworth, Mark Woodworth Editorial Services
Author Photo: Lisa Lake
Publishing Strategist: Holly Brady, Brady New Media Publishing
Address permission requests to:
Fortuna Advisors
One Penn Plaza
New York, New York 10119
To purchase multiple copies of this book at reduced prices:
To my parents, Vincent and Annabelle Milano,
who always believed in me and
gave me the confidence to aim for success
in this unforgiving world.
Contents
Prologue
Part I:
UNDERSTANDING SHORT-TERMISM AND THE EVOLUTION OF PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
ONE: Corporate Short-Termism and How It Happens
TWO: What Gets Measured Gets Done
THREE: EVA Is Good, but Not as Good as It Gets
FOUR: The Five Tools of Value Creation
Part II:
SETTING GOALS AND DEVELOPING BUSINESS PLANS
FIVE: Setting Aspirational Goals
SIX: Continuous Improvement
SEVEN: Business, Product, and Service Portfolio Strategy
Part III:
ALLOCATING STRATEGIC RESOURCES
EIGHT: Capital Deployment Policies
NINE: Strategic Resource Allocation
TEN: Investment Decision-Making
ELEVEN: Loose Ends in Investment Decision-Making
TWELVE: Financial Policies that Support Business Strategy
Part IV:
EMBRACING AN OWNERSHIP CULTURE
THIRTEEN: Understanding and Creating an Ownership Culture
FOURTEEN: Designing Owner-like Compensation Plans
FIFTEEN: Getting Managers and Employees to Act Like Owners
Acknowledgments
Glossary
About the Author
Figures
Figure 1—Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Success
Figure 2—Rate of Return Dilution
Figure 3—Rate of Return Accretion
Figure 4—United Technologies Segments
Figure 5—EVA Accretion
Figure 6—EVA Dilution
Figure 7—EVA and RCE over Time
Figure 8—EVA and RCE Cost of Ownership
Figure 9—Balancing Growth and Return
Figure 10—Oracle Growth, Return, and TSR
Figure 11—Eliminating Unprofitable Customers
Figure 12—Reinvesting in Positive RCE Projects
Figure 13—Asset Intensity and Margins
Figure 14—Price vs. EPS for Amazon
Figure 15—RCE Implied Share Price for Amazon.com
Figure 16—The Five Tools of Value Creation
Figure 17—RCE Drivers for Revenue Pass-through Businesses
Figure 18—Amazon RCE Expectations
Figure 19—Top-Quartile TSR
Figure 20—Allocating Aspirational Goals
Figure 21—Measures Used in Tech Study
Figure 22—Continuous Improvement in a Cyclical Business
Figure 23—The Boston Consulting Group Growth/Share Matrix
Figure 24—Average TSR by S&P 500 Quartile 2001–2010
Figure 25—Change in Value of Hypothetical Four-Business Company
Figure 26—Percentage Change in Market Share vs. Initial Share as a Percentage of the Leader Share
Figure 27—Historical Apparel Market Growth
Figure 28—Growth Score Based on Market Growth and Market Share
Figure 29—The Fortuna Advisors Growth/RCM Matrix
Figure 30—Median Three-Year TSR vs. Growth and RCM (2015–2017)
Figure 31—Buyback Rate Inversely Related to TSR
Figure 32—Restaurant Buyback Example
Figure 33—Net Buybacks for the S&P 500
Figure 34—Sunoco Buyback ROI as of 2012
Figure 35—Cash Acquisitions for the S&P 500
Figure 36—The Sources and Uses of Capital
Figure 37—Reinvestment Rate Positively Related to TSR
Figure 38—Perspectives on the Best and Worst Don’t Change
Figure 39—Competitive Advantages Drive RCE
Figure 40—Illustrative Strategic Evaluation Chart for Healthcare
Figure 41—Segmenting RCE in Three Dimensions
Figure 42—Benefits of Using a Reinvestment Rate
Figure 43—Case: Product Portfolio Characteristics
Figure 44—Case: Product RCE Calculations
Figure 45—Case: Product CapEx Reallocation
Figure 46—Estimated EBITDA Margin for IBM Segments
Figure 47—Quick Cash Return for IBM Segments
Figure 48—Quick Reinvestment Rate for IBM Segments
Figure 49—Cumulative Free Cash Flow from Three-Year Expansion
Figure 50—Annual Free Cash Flow from Three-Year Expansion
Figure 51—ROIC from Three-Year Expansion
Figure 52—EVA from Three-Year Expansion
Figure 53—RCE for Three-Year Expansion
Figure 54—Project Prioritization with the RCE Profitability Index
Figure 55—Project Look-Back Cumulative Free Cash Flow
Figure 56—Project Look-Back RCE
Figure 57—Importance of Intangibles
Figure 58—Value to Sales Driven by RCE and the Tomorrow/Today Ratio
Figure 59—Baseline for Illustration of Value to Sales
Figure 60—Sales Growth Optimization by Reallocating Marketing Resources
Figure 61—Introducing the Value to Sales Ratio
Figure 62—Using Value to Sales to Maximize Value
Figure 63—Purchase Price Sets the GCE Targets
Figure 64—Growth Investment Drives Revenue Growth
Figure 65—Margins and Returns Drifting Higher
Figure 66—Performance Test for Varian Medical Systems Performance Share Units
Figure 67—Tradeoffs between Motivation, Retention, and Cost
Figure 68—Compensation Mix and Payout Variation
Figure 69—Stable vs. Volatile RCE
Figure 70—Stable vs. Volatile Bonus Multiple
Figure 71—Pay for Performance Bonus Sensitivity
Figure 72—Baseline RCE Incentive Simulation
Figure 73—RCE Incentive Simulation with One-Off Bad Year
Figure 74—RCE Incentive Simulation with Permanent Decline
Figure 75—RCE Incentive Simulation with Good Investment
Figure 76—Baseline Training Case
Figure 77—New Idle Assets
Figure 78—Amazon Leadership Principles
Prologue
A Tale of Leadership in Value Creation
Over the last three decades that I’ve spent as a management consultant, I have witnessed more than my share of painful, cringe-inducing short-termism. Before getting to a prescription for rooting out this type of behavior in corporate organizations, I offer the following fictional tale that is based on a collection of my experiences advising leaders in various business situations. Its purpose is to illustrate how the principles advocated herein can be used to focus a company and its management team on a better balance of short- and long-term objectives, leading to greater success for shareholders and society alike. All names, characters, and incidents are fictitious; no association with actual persons, companies, places, or products is intended or should be inferred.
A Special Acquisition Meeting of the Board of Directors
The CEO of Blue Dynamics Corp., Betty Manning, and her team had spent three hours presenting the proposed acquisition of Sky Annex Corp. to their board for approval. The deal would add 20% to the company’s total revenue, would expand their presence in their most successful business unit (Systems Integration), and would also create a platform for international growth, a dimension that had been severely lacking at Blue Dynamics. Betty had one-on-one calls with several board members over the previous few weeks, but the meeting was the first time that management fully explained the nature of Sky Annex Corp., the benefits to Blue Dynamics’ long-term strategic growth, the proposed deal structure, its financing plan, and the strategy for making the acquisition a success. All that was left was for the directors to ask questions before voting to make a decision.
The deal looked attractive from a strategic as well as an operational perspective, but the purchase price seemed high to some board members. One director expressed his concern by pointing out that the price-to-earnings (PE) multiple being paid was considerably higher than Blue Dynamics’ current valuation: How can you expect us to approve paying a price that is higher than what our investors are willing to pay for our stock? What if our multiple gets applied to their earnings? Won’t our share price fall?
Betty acknowledged the seemingly high price but explained to the board that "Sky Annex presents the best opportunity for future profitable growth of any company in and around our Systems Integration business. We have been searching far and wide for investment prospects in order to allocate growth capital and expand our portfolio of high-return businesses, and Sky Annex fulfils this strategic need in several ways. Their product portfolio complements those of our own businesses, so although we plan to operate it separately for now, we can have both sales teams selling both product lines to offer our customers more options, with minimum sales cannibalization. Over five years ago, Sky Annex expanded into Europe, South America, and Asia, and it has since built a small but effective presence in each market. This potential acquisition represents a substantial opportunity for us to grow their products while also launching our existing offerings in these new markets. Our reinvestment rate has been below average, and this acquisition will provide us with more-productive ways to deploy capital into value-creating projects after the deal goes through."
Blue Dynamics’ CFO, Topher West, added, And all of this growth that Betty talks about is expected to be very profitable, since Sky Annex operates at a high rate of return on capital—even higher than Systems Integration, our highest-return business.
Another director asked whether that high rate of return would continue to be the case after the acquisition, given the purchase price and all the goodwill that would be added to the capital base.
Topher clarified his outlook: "It’s true that with the goodwill, the acquisition will deliver a much lower return. But it’s the incremental organic return without the goodwill that indicates the rate of return we expect on subsequent investment in the acquired businesses. We need to earn a return on the full investment for this acquisition to create value for our shareholders. The only way to do so is to invest to grow the business at its high organic rate of return, so that over time the overall return of the business, including the ‘fixed’ goodwill, rises above the cost of capital."
The board seemed satisfied with the explanation on price, and one director even chuckled and remarked, You get what you pay for.
Smiling contentedly, another board member gently wondered aloud why there wouldn’t be more cost synergies after the deal. He was accustomed to seeing acquisition integration plans that touted extensive cost savings from combining head offices, using shared services, shuttering duplicate activities, and reducing both the real estate footprint and the total number of employees.
We do expect some cost synergies,
Topher explained, "and we folks in finance will be working hard with the leadership in all departments and functions to identify and achieve them. But as we developed the acquisition plan, our highest priority was to expand this new, high-return platform to enable us to invest more in profitable growth. We do not believe cost savings alone could justify the purchase price, but we do believe the growth plan can. In a sense, you can think of the value of the cost savings as a bonus. It’s really the icing on the cake!"
After a bit more banter on the synergies, and after the directors felt they understood this aspect of the plan, the chairman asked about their ability to manage and grow the offshore businesses, given the lack of international experience at Blue Dynamics. At her last company, Betty acquired extensive international experience, including three tours living abroad and managing businesses in Seoul, São Paulo, and Zurich. She talked briefly about the differences in business culture that she experienced in each country and described the challenges Blue Dynamics would likely face in making their international expansion successful. But she also spoke about the size of the untapped opportunity as well as the benefits that would accrue from acquiring and building on the established, successful country platforms of Sky Annex.
Betty announced the intention of the Systems Integration management team to retain a majority of the existing Sky Annex country managers to capitalize on their established know-how. Steven Tiles, general manager of Systems Integration, explained that he intended to make each country its own profit center that would be rolled up with the others into a thin, regional group structure. Each country manager would have considerable decision-making authority, coupled with significant accountability. They would be free to adapt their business to fit the local market, yet would be responsible for outcomes, not actions. When the Blue Dynamics leadership team met with country managers while conducting due diligence, it was impressed with their positive reaction to Blue Diamond’s combination of decentralized authority and accountability.
This discussion of accountability prompted the vice chairman to consider the bigger picture, so he drew his colleagues’ attention to what he deemed a pretty optimistic forecast. Betty acknowledged that the projections were aggressive, but then emphasized that they had all been carefully vetted. Every element of projected growth was tied to a specific investment initiative, and the projecting managers had increased the expenditure on sales and marketing to be sure they were positioned to make the growth a reality. This was their most likely
case—what they really thought would happen.
Betty then gazed slowly and deliberately at the faces around the long board room table and reminded each and every board member that the annual bonuses of management were based on the year-on-year improvement in BDVA (a performance measure that stood for Blue Dynamics Value Added). To improve BDVA, management had to sufficiently increase EBITDA—or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—to more than cover a capital charge based on new investment. Their long-term incentives reinforced this target, as well. If managers succeeded in improving BDVA, they would make more money. If not, they would make less—without any opportunity for negotiations, sandbagging, or adjustments. Based on the forecast, then, the acquisition purchase price implied a heavy charge for the corporate use of capital; and this charge, coupled with the expenditures expected in year one to launch the domestic and international growth plans, would reduce the short-term BDVA.
Betty then went on to say, "Our existing businesses are performing well, so without this acquisition my team and I would expect to earn bonuses of about 140 to 150 percent this year; however, with the acquisition this will drop to 40 to 50 percent. None of us are happy to lose the money, but we understand it—and we believe in our forecast. If the BDVA never recovers, this money will be lost forever and some of the value destroyed will come out of our own pockets. But if we achieve the forecast, we expect to earn an extra 200 to 300 percent in bonuses over the next few years. We don’t have a crystal ball, but we believe the forecast is doable and are willing to put our own money on the line."
The chairman leaned back and remarked pleasantly about how far the company had come since Betty became CEO 18 months earlier. In the past, management would have attempted to sell the board on the long-term merits of an investment, knowing all along that they would likely seek a negotiated adjustment to their current-year incentive plan performance target. Then, every year after that, new incentive performance targets would be set based on budgets, without regard for whether the investment had performed well. The directors never knew how much conviction management really had about their forecast. Under the old incentive plan, if the investment did well, the budgets used to set incentive targets were raised each year, so much of the gain was never rewarded. And if the investment underperformed, the budgets and incentive targets were dropped, too, so that management never paid a high price for their mistakes.
With Betty’s no-nonsense management style and the company’s emphasis on increasing BDVA each year to earn higher incentives, the board now had greater confidence when considering an acquisition like Sky Annex. The managers now seemed to think and act more like long-term, committed owners who treated the capital of the company as their own. Yes, they were very happy with Betty as their CEO.
Eighteen Months Earlier
So, tell me again, Topher,
Betty inquired, "why does the company use EPS for half of our annual bonus plan? You say my predecessor knew the pitfalls of EPS but felt it was best for shareholders? That’s what they want? And you say not to worry because our managers always aim to do the right thing… They aren’t swayed by the incentive plan? It sounds crazy to me. Why use an incentive that managers have to overcome to do the right thing? Should we really trust that our managers will act in the interests of the company when we’re rewarding them for taking a different action? Why force our managers to make a tradeoff between their own financial well-being and that of the company?"
It had only been three weeks since Betty Manning joined Blue Dynamics Corp. as the new CEO, and she was still getting to know the company and her team. She had come from a larger industrial conglomerate where she was the general manager of its second-largest business unit. For years she was recognized as a star performer there, but her path to the top would be tough since her company’s CEO and its chief operating officer were both new to their jobs. They were also both younger than she and quite effective as well, so investors and the board of directors were content with them.
She wasn’t looking for a new job, but when a headhunter called, her interest was piqued by the thought of becoming the CEO of a public company. She tried not to think about it much, but she knew that’s what she always wanted—so she pursued the opportunity. The Nominations Committee of the Blue Dynamics board met a handful of other candidates, but the process ended fairly quickly. Betty was clearly the one for the job, they concluded. The full board of directors was impressed by her immediate understanding of their businesses, competitors, strategies, and financial performance, especially for someone outside the company. Yet the real edge Betty offered was her presence as a natural leader.
Whenever Betty Manning spoke, everyone understood her. She was known for her clear and direct style that made complex matters seem simpler, and she had a way of convincing people of her point of view, seemingly without really trying. She was pragmatic and always appeared to listen more than she spoke. For years she made sure she heard everyone in a room before making a decision. Why surround yourself with good people,
she would ask, if you’re not going to listen to them?
Her matter-of-fact style was a breath of fresh air, especially given her predecessor’s obsession with convoluted strategies that required a never-ending dialogue with the board of directors on what he described as the nuances
of how the industry functioned. When challenged on the financial merits of his ideas, he often declared, this isn’t financial, it’s strategic.
Each time he said this, one of the directors always mumbled under his breath, It may be hard to quantify the benefits, but it had better eventually be financial, or it’s not very strategic.
Back in her meeting with Topher, he responded, As I’ve told you, Bertrand [the former CEO] was a CPA at heart. Even after he was named CEO, and of course before that as CFO, he was an accountant who was always partial to bottom-line accounting numbers, rather than measures of return on capital, margins, and the like. And he succumbed to all the hoopla over earnings per share on our quarterly earnings calls and in the media. Bertrand often pointed out that, when quarterly earnings were announced, the talking heads on CNBC never said, ‘Blue Dynamics missed on ROE’—instead, they always talked EPS (earnings per share). We did manage to get return measures into the incentives for the business-unit bonuses, but for the consolidated company, Bertrand mostly seemed to care about EPS.
Betty had seen this before and asked, Did you try to help him understand that there are better and more comprehensive ways to view performance?
I tried to help by showing him margins and return measures to guide him toward a more rounded perspective of the business.
Topher continued, I emphasized cost efficiency and capital productivity. He especially listened when we were talking about the business units. He liked looking at the business-unit returns when we were allocating the capital budget, though of course he had other strategic motives as well.
That hit a nerve with Betty. The prior week, she had spent hours reviewing the allocation of capital across the business. She recalled being puzzled when she noticed that all the poorer-performing businesses seemed to have been allocated more capital as a percentage of their EBITDA. The best performers got very little. She asked Topher to explain how Blue Dynamics’s capital allocation process worked.
It’s pretty straightforward, really,
he replied. First, we decide the total budget, which is usually about five to six percent of sales, depending on how we think investors will react. That’s the range we have used for the last few years—although three years ago, when the industry was doing better, investors encouraged us to invest more, and we did. Once we set the overall budget, we ask each of the four businesses to submit a capital budget. Last year, the total came in about 17 percent above what we wanted to spend, so we scaled everyone back 15 to 20 percent until we had the total we wanted.
Betty thought about it in silence for a minute, and then asked, How do you know five to six percent is the right amount?
Topher hesitated and then, in a soft tone, replied, We don’t.
And how come Systems Integration isn’t investing more? They seem to have decent growth opportunities…and they have by far the most differentiated products and the highest return on capital. I haven’t met with them yet, but it seems to me that investing to grow that business is our best use of capital.
The funny thing is that Systems Integration hasn’t asked for much capital in about four or five years,
Topher explained. Seems they really don’t have many good investment ideas. Great business, but they never ask for much growth funding.
I’m having trouble understanding this,
Betty responded. Their segment is growing. They have a quite low market share, so they could grow even faster than the market. And they haven’t even explored expanding overseas. Why in the world don’t they ask for more investment dollars? This is a huge strategic error.
It never troubled Bertrand.
Topher paused and then continued. He always liked telling investors he would balance investing in the business with shareholder distributions. If the capital budget went up, there would be less for distributions. We started paying a dividend a few years ago, but mostly Bertrand liked talking about the EPS accretion from his buyback program. He loved telling investors he was demonstrating his commitment and confidence in the future. He often said he was buying the stock because it was cheap, and investors should buy more, too. I once overheard him tell a board member that half the company’s EPS growth was from his buyback program and the other half was from what everyone else did.
Betty stared at Topher in disbelief. Was it Bertrand’s arrogance that bothered her? Did the nonsense about buybacks worry her? And did Bertrand really believe that taking a dollar inside the company and giving it to an investor outside the company at fair value somehow created value? Perhaps more important, did Topher believe that, too? She sat quietly and wondered how many good investment opportunities the company had turned down to give money back to shareholders. She suddenly snapped out of her ruminations when Topher said he had to get going. She thanked him for sharing his views and said goodbye.
The following Tuesday, Betty met the Systems Integration management and got a tour of their aging facility, which seemed desperately in need of a new coat of paint and, more critically, some modernized equipment. The Systems Integration team explained the business, and she even tried out some of the robotic simulators. The technology was exciting and she enjoyed seeing it in action. It was the last of the four businesses to meet with her, and she was considerably more impressed with it than with the others.
Steven Tiles of Systems Integration presented her with the business-unit strategy, their business plan projections, and an overview of opportunities and threats. Betty found herself genuinely excited at the prospects, but also a bit confused as to why they weren’t trying to invest more to grow this promising business faster. When she asked, Steven deflected her question with talk of being selective and careful. After the second and third time she asked, Steven sat back in his chair and said, OK, Betty, I’ll tell you how it is. We have been blessed in this business with wonderful opportunities. With this and hard work from our team, we have been able to increase our return on operating assets from 20 percent just a few years ago to 45 percent last year. It will be higher this year. It’s hard to find investments that earn a higher return than that.
Oh, I see,
she said. You have built a great business, but you have also been tasked with improving returns; so if you invest at a lower return, it will bring down the average for the business unit.
Steven confirmed her suspicion—You’re a quick study, Betty. Our business-unit management incentive is half-based on the percentage by which we improve the return on operating assets. When they told us about it seven or eight years ago, we thought it made great sense. What could go wrong if we improved our profits and became more productive with capital? But there’s no reward for growth. And over time, by trial and error, we realized that investing at returns below the current return cost us money out of our own pockets. As we improved our returns, the hurdle for new investments became higher and higher. It didn’t seem right, so we tried explaining to Bertrand that we thought we should invest and grow more. But he said he needed to keep our returns high to woo investors.
After a brief pause, the confession continued. He also liked having money left over for his buybacks… but I wouldn’t know much about that.
When Betty returned to her office, she dug into a stack of quarterly reports going back several years. She stayed late into the night and compared one performance report after another to the capital investment tracking reports. The more data she examined, the more the picture became clear. The focus on improving returns led her best business unit to turn down most investments—even those earning 30% or more. With the business unit earning 45% or greater, the bar had been set too high.
As she worked through the numbers, she felt shocked to realize that the opposite was true in her worst-performing business unit. With a mere 4% return, the Assembly Fabrication unit could improve its returns by investing at 6%. They had planned capital expenditure projects to replace a key manufacturing line with a modest increase in capacity, along with a series of other investments that didn’t seem to meaningfully improve efficiency, productivity, or capacity. It hit her that she had one business turning down investments with 30% returns while another was gladly investing at 6%.
It wasn’t funny, though Betty couldn’t help but laugh. She began to wonder if this was a practical joke. Who would invest virtually all their capital in their worst business and almost nothing in their best business? Who would starve a business earning a 45% return in order to give the money right back to shareholders? Was there a camera in her office to see how she reacted to this madness? Maybe she was being set up on Punk’d or Candid Camera. As she looked around, she noticed the eye of the duck sparkling in the picture behind her desk, so she stood on a chair to confirm there was no camera. There was no joke…this was her new reality. She wasn’t laughing anymore.
She looked further into the capital investment tracking reports. Of course, the low-return investments in Assembly Fabrication were forecast as 12% or 15% returns in the capital requests. The actual performance never seemed to live up to the projections. But as long as it ended up above the existing return—a mere 4%—it brought up the business unit’s average return, and as a result the Assembly Fabrication management received a higher bonus. They weren’t accountable for hitting their projections or for hitting their cost of capital return.
Betty knew her first hundred days would be important. She needed to set a new course that would not only drive results but let everyone know that she meant business. To this end, she settled on her first major initiative to improve performance at Blue Dynamics. Though she needed to think through the strategies of each business—and there was much room for improvement there—in the short term she realized that her highest priority should be to address the behaviors of her management team. To improve the company’s performance, her managers needed to invest more in the good parts of the business, fix its weaker parts, and push harder to deliver results. If she merely realigned the incentives to encourage the right behavior, things would start moving in the proper direction, she concluded.
Assembly Fabrication, she realized, had to hit the brakes and focus on improving what it already had. It was crucial that it cut costs to improve margins. Asset intensity could have been improved by eliminating unproductive capital—for example, by reducing inventory, collecting outstanding overdue accounts receivable, and, most important, by changing how it contracted with customers to get paid earlier. Perhaps it even could have considered a new pricing strategy. But, mostly, Assembly Fabrication needed to stop investing in growth until it earned the right to grow.
In contrast, Systems Integration needed to step on the gas by investing in every profitable growth opportunity that the business-unit management believed would earn meaningfully more than its cost of capital. It had opportunities to expand its product line and offer high-, medium-, and low-capability alternatives to meet the needs of a wider variety of customers. The software that came with each unit could be enhanced with more-useful features and sold separately as SaaS, or software as a service. And maybe Systems Integration could capture an ongoing annuity of revenue, making every sale that much more valuable.
Several Systems Integration assembly plants were old and running over their rated capacity, which increased costs and made it hard to hit client delivery deadlines. Investments in new capacity would be helpful immediately. From a marketing perspective, they could have moved into new domestic end-user markets, and there was clear demand to support expansion into Europe and Asia. Even if their returns dropped from 45% to, say, 35%, while the business doubled or tripled in size, it would be a great outcome since they would still be earning a high return across a much larger base.
To encourage her team to make all this happen, she implemented Blue Dynamics Value Added, or BDVA, as a financial performance measure. It was defined simply as the business’s EBITDA less a capital charge based on 12% of their gross invested capital.
Managers were then encouraged to improve volumes, efficiency, pricing, and profit margins, since the resulting increases in EBITDA would increase BDVA. If they could also enhance capacity utilization, drive down unnecessary inventories, and collect on customer invoices in a timelier fashion, they could reduce the gross invested capital required and drive BDVA higher. And, very important, BDVA would increase whenever they invested in growth as long as the incremental EBITDA more than covered the increase in capital charge.
Topher’s team completed a historical analysis and found that, though Blue Dynamics had delivered revenue and EBITDA growth in most years, its BDVA had fluctuated and was in fact a bit lower than five years earlier. Betty advocated an incentive framework in which the target BDVA each year would equal the prior year’s actual. This seemed fair, given the historically flat and declining BDVA, and, most important, it would set a rigid, target-setting approach that was separated from the budget to eliminate target negotiations and sandbagging. In the future, if she asked one of her business-unit teams to try to come up with a way to improve performance and plan for it, they may or may not agree—but at least they would know that if they did, their bonuses would be higher and so would Betty’s. They were more like partners and less like adversaries.
This novel approach to target-setting provided an incentive to invest in the future even when the immediate effect was a decline in BDVA. As long as they had confidence that the investment would eventually pay off, any bonus they forfeited in year one would be more than earned back if and when the new investment contributed positive BDVA. Betty no longer had to wonder if her business-unit heads believed the forecasts they showed for the recommended investment programs. If the EBITDA didn’t grow enough to cover the capital charge, BDVA would decline and some of the value that would be destroyed would come out of management’s paycheck. She still had to exercise judgment in deciding what to approve, but at least she knew that the incentives of the managers proposing the investment were aligned with her own. Betty had wanted such a compensation arrangement for years—and she was finally in a position to implement it.
It started to work almost immediately, and even better than she hoped. Right after BDVA was introduced, Steven Tiles and his Systems Integration management team studied their business from every angle imaginable to identify opportunities for BDVA improvement. For example, they allocated costs and capital in order to estimate the BDVA contribution of each customer and customer group, and they tasked the sales team with making improvements both in their pricing models and in negotiating the terms of customer contracts. In the past, such efforts had tended to get bogged down in analysis-paralysis.
This time, there seemed to be more of a sustained drive to achieve results.
The team also analyzed and evaluated each product line to identify those that were contributing the most BDVA and found that such success was associated with how unique and differentiated each product was. So they set