FPL Elite: How to Be the Best at Fantasy Premier League

FPL ELITE:

HOW TO BE THE BEST AT FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE

MATT WHELAN

Copyright © 2024 M. K. Whelan

All rights reserved

No part of this book may be reproduced, or stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without express written permission of the publisher.

First Edition

Cover design by: OGLY Diseño Online

ISBN (paperback): 978-1-7398608-6-8

ISBN (ebook): 978-1-7398608-7-5

ISBN (hardcover): 978-1-7398608-8-2

Published by Arrowcroft Press

For Rachael

The list of things I must thank you for is endless, yet growing every day

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

PART ONE

FANTASY FOOTBALL FIX

MY RELATIONSHIP WITH FIX

WHO ARE THE ELITE XI?

WHAT IS THIS BOOK ABOUT?

HOW MUCH OF FPL SUCCESS IS LUCK?

PART TWO

ELITE XI

MARK

BACKGROUND

FPL HISTORY AND PLAYING STYLE

ELITE ADVICE

STATISTICS

JAMES

BEYOND STATS

ELITE ADVICE

COREY

BACKGROUND

ELITE ADVICE

CRAIG

BACKGROUND

ELITE ADVICE

PART THREE

ELITE COMMON TRAITS

1. PLAN AHEAD

2. BE HUMBLE, HONEST AND OBJECTIVE ABOUT YOUR FPL PERFORMANCE

3. SEEK INFORMATION FROM HIGH-QUALITY SOURCES

4. PRIORITISE FIXTURES OVER FORM

5. DON'T WORRY ABOUT EFFECTIVE OWNERSHIP, BUT DON'T IGNORE IT EITHER

6. ANALYSE STATISTICS (BUT THE RIGHT ONES)

7. LEAVE YOUR EGO AT THE DOOR

PART FOUR

ELITE PSYCHOLOGY

NEVER GIVE UP!

CONCLUSION

ELITE LESSONS LEARNED

THE FUTURE OF FPL

FPL RULE CHANGES

HOW SHOULD WE DEFINE ELITE?

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

APPENDIX A – LUCK IN FPL SURVEY

APPENDIX B – ELITE XI COMMON TRAITS

APPENDIX C – ELITE XI PLAYING STYLES

APPENDIX D – ELITE CHIP STRATEGY

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

FIX TOOLS

LEAVING A REVIEW

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

INTRODUCTION

In February 2022 – just days after Vladimir Putin had rocked the world by ordering the invasion of Ukraine – I found myself standing, wrapped in a towel, on the living room floor of our holiday villa in the Caribbean, anxiously watching the television screen.

We had waited for this family holiday for three years. The original booking, made in 2019, for the summer of 2020, was cancelled due to Covid restrictions. The ban on flights was lifted in time for the postponed holiday – rebooked for the summer of 2021 – but this time my wife caught Covid less than a week before we were due to fly, so once again the holiday was postponed, this time to February 2022. But it wasn't just international travel which Covid was playing hell with. The Premier League schedule was also a complete mess. Fans of Premier League football had never before experienced such disruption and this, of course, had a massive impact on Fantasy Premier League (FPL), with blank and double Gameweeks all over the place.

My wife and kids were in the pool, enjoying the tropical sunshine. I had made an excuse to go back to the villa so that I could turn on the TV and catch up on what was happening. But it was not the world-changing, World War III-ushering, Armageddon-threatening news in Eastern Europe I was so nervously watching. Liverpool were playing Leeds in the second instalment of their double Gameweek, and I was one of the very few managers who hadn't played the Triple Captain chip on Mohamed Salah.

I had got off relatively lightly during the first instalment of the double Gameweek. Salah had scored a single goal against Norwich but (annoyingly) had bagged all three bonus points. Ten points with a game left to play. It could have been worse, but a lot depended on how he did against Leeds. I was about to find out.

It's a thoroughly confusing and unpleasant feeling watching a player you own in FPL, who also plays for the team you support, and yet praying they don't score or get an assist. But many engaged FPL managers will be all too familiar with this contradictory sensation. Sadly, my prayers went unanswered as Salah went on to score twice and get an assist. Devastating! The only small crumb of solace I could take from the game was that Sadio Mané went on to score a brace, which was enough to just nick a bonus point from Salah right at the death – Ha! In your face Triple Captainers! – but the damage was done. Twenty-eight points. Eighty-friggin'-four points if you played the Triple Captain on him, which, of course, almost everyone had.

Whether you're new to FPL, or remember this famous Gameweek well, you will probably be wondering why I didn't play the Triple Captain chip on FPL's most consistently explosive player, in a Gameweek in which he was facing both Norwich and Leeds. I'd like to say that it was because I had already used it, but the truth of the matter is, I had decided to play my Free Hit that week instead and was therefore prohibited from using the Triple Captain.

The timing of this – now twice rescheduled – holiday was absolutely awful in relation to FPL. Deadlines were coming in thick and fast during a ten-day period in which I had decided to play both my Free Hit and second Wildcard (the two chips which require the most intensive planning), in amongst double and blank Gameweeks. Fortunately, it was a chill out (rather than an exploration) holiday, so while my wife was reading, I was sitting with my laptop, pen and paper, planning my moves.

I had given the Triple Captain scenario a lot of thought but had decided to play my Free Hit in double Gameweek 26. Due to Covid postponements, the 2021/22 season was the first – and so far, only – time that we have been given a second Free Hit – a generous gift from our overlords in FPL Towers. Many managers were planning to use this second Free Hit to navigate blank Gameweek 27, which my team was well set up for. Sadly, my team looked like a pile of sheep's droppings for double Gameweek 26, one in which there were many teams playing twice.

My logic was that if I used my Free Hit here, I would instantly gain an advantage over those who were going to use hits to optimise their team. Additionally, I could really attack the Gameweek by fielding 11 x doublers, I'd be able to navigate Gameweek 27 without making any transfers, and finally, I would still have my Triple Captain chip to play later on in the season. The only downside, it seemed, was opting against Mo Salah in two easy fixtures. A large downside indeed.

As things turned out, playing the Free Hit was (remarkably!) the better option, but only slightly. With double-digit hauls from Virgil van Dijk, Wilfried Zaha, Wout Weghorst (remember him?) and Alexandre Lacazette, I finished the Gameweek on a whopping 150 points! And, of course, still had my Triple Captain chip up my sleeve.

For those of you who read my previous book FPL Obsessed: Tips for Success in Fantasy Premier League, you will know that I haven't had much joy with the Triple Captain chip, and the same was true this season. I decided to play it three Gameweeks later, in double Gameweek 29, when Liverpool played Brighton and Arsenal. Sadly, Salah – renowned for his guaranteed game time and injury-free career – only managed 90 minutes between both fixtures and scored 10 points (compared to the 28 points from Gameweek 26).

Despite the above, I ended up with a season finish of 68k. A decrease from the previous season (23k), but a respectable finish nevertheless.

As the season drew to a close, I came into contact with a lovely chap called Tom who contacted me on behalf of Fantasy Football Fix (more on that later). If you are an engaged member of the FPL community, or an avid FPL manager, then there's a good chance you are already familiar with Fix. If you don't know who they are, they are one of the top websites dedicated to FPL tools and statistics, their direct rivals being Fantasy Football Scout and Fantasy Football Hub. They were also amongst the first to innovate in the area of AI-based prediction models.

They are now home to the 'Elite XI' concept; a group of the world's finest – objectively speaking – FPL managers. I was¹ lucky enough to work with this elite group of managers and gain unfettered access to their insight, strategy and mindset.

This book is a distilled product of all the information I have gathered from spending years working closely with the world's very best FPL managers.

If you are interested in discovering the secrets of the FPL elite, then read on.

PART ONE

FIX AND THE ELITE XI

FANTASY FOOTBALL FIX

Have you ever found yourself chatting to a stranger about Premier League football and wondered, nervously, if you should try to shift the conversation to FPL? Well, that's precisely what happened in the spring of 2015, during a chance encounter between two strangers in a gym.

Sam, a less-than-dedicated gym user (to put it politely), met Adam amidst the equipment. A safe conversation about football quickly evolved to Sam asking, So, do you play FPL?

Typically, the answer to this question is either No, but I've heard of it or Yes, I do. When the latter answer is given, then it is usually someone who plays on a casual basis, perhaps in a work mini-league, or against close friends. On more scarce occasions, you may bump into someone who is FPL obsessed, or a member of the online FPL community.

What Sam wasn't expecting was that the stranger in crutches he had just met was, in fact, developing an algorithm designed to help him consistently achieve Top 10k finishes. Yes, I play FPL is something of an understatement in this case.

Adam's original intention was to keep this algorithm to himself. But Sam had other ideas. The concept of bringing artificial intelligence (AI) to the FPL community was spinning madly around his brain. While neither of these gentlemen could have known at the time, the very first foundation of Fantasy Football Fix – colloquially known as just 'Fix' – had been laid.

2016

Fast forward a year and the beta version of the website was launched. The concept of Fix was simple: provide a clean and user-friendly platform which would allow users to apply Adam's unique algorithm to refine their own FPL squad. As the year progressed, new ideas were implemented. Concepts such as 'live rank' – now regarded as essential by most engaged FPL managers – were coming to the forefront of their thinking. By the end of 2016, Fix had over 20 unique FPL tools.

2017

It wasn't until the year after that the company started gaining real traction. Always looking to move forward, they partnered with Opta. The concept of Expected Goals (xG) prior to 2017 had been the domain of the football analytics community, a majorly underappreciated subcommunity at the time, and a bunch of people often (and unfairly) regarded as nothing more than geeks who had never kicked a ball in their lives.

The day before the 2017/18 season kicked off, the BBC announced that the British footballing institution, Match of the Day, would be featuring xG as part of their coverage. This was a major win for the analytics community and would pave the way for the unstoppable rise of sports data and its myriad of practical applications.

Fix went one step beyond using Opta's data for xG. They developed their own version. Using Opta F24 live feeds, they were able to import player co-ordinates in real time. This was a game changer for the Gameweek Live tool. Now FPL managers could see every kick of a ball in real time and view player heatmaps live.

2018

What had once been an academic project was now a serious website with a growing user base. Fix needed to invest heavily in getting a server which could cope with increasing demand, and scale with the forecast future growth of the business. New tools were being added all the time, including Fix Rivals, a tool which allows managers to keep detailed tabs on their biggest mini-league