The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 6:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tanner Houck ($9,500) Boston Red Sox (-222) vs. Oakland A’s
We targeted a Boston righty against the A’s last night as our GPP pick, and it paid off. Nick Pivetta struck out 10 A’s over 6.2 innings, though he also allowed four earned runs. This time, it’s fairly reasonable to project better run prevention from Boston’s starter, though with less strikeout-based upside.
That’s because Houck has a 2.68 ERA through 18 starts this season, which has turned into a breakout campaign for the former first-round pick. His 23.3% strikeout rate is far from elite, though he should still pick up a decent amount against an Oakland team with the second-highest strikeout rate against righties in the majors.
Additionally, with the smaller slate on Thursday, we probably don’t need a double-digit strikeout performance to challenge for the best score on the slate. Houck has the highest ownership projection on the slate, but the top six arms are all fairly similar, making him a solid option for GPPs and cash games alike.
He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs median projections by a comfortable margin.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Jack Kochanowicz ($4,000) Los Angeles Angels (+140) vs. Seattle Mariners
Kochanowicz is jumping all the way up from AA to make his major league debut today, and it’s hard to predict whether he’ll be up to the task or not. There are some positive signs about his chances today, though, especially relative to his minimum salary.
Namely, the matchup with Seattle, who has an absurd 28.9% strikeout rate against righties this year. That’s a full 2% higher than Oakland (who ranks second). They’re a slightly below-average offense overall but with a wide range of outcomes, given their free-swinging ways.
Kochanowicz has an ugly 4.55 ERA in AA this year, but his 3.30 xFIP suggests he’s actually better than that. As does the fact that he got the call-up today instead of a potential AAA starter. He’s also averaging just under six innings per start, so it doesn’t seem like the Angels plan on using him as an opener.
While the Vegas Data isn’t great, Seattle’s 4.9 implied runs doesn’t suggest the market thinks he’ll get totally blown up, either. That should be enough to justify his $4,000 salary. Kochanowicz leads both systems in Pts/Sal projection on Thursday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jake Bloss ($6,200) Houston Astros (-188) vs. Miami Marlins
Another rookie is intriguing, thanks to his matchup on Thursday’s slate. Jake Bloss of the Astros was pulled after just 3.2 innings in his big league debut last month before a stint on the 15-day DL. It’s hard to read much into that, but he had a sub-2.00 ERA between AA and AAA before getting the call-up this year.
The Marlins 81 wRC+ against righties this year suggests they aren’t much better than a AAA team, so there’s reason to be optimistic about Bloss. They don’t strike out a ton — and he’s not a great strikeout pitcher — but he doesn’t need to be on a small slate with a moderate salary.
The fact that Miami has the lowest team total on the slate is a good sign here, as we almost never see that from a pitcher at his price point. Of course, since he’s coming back from injury, it’s hard to project him to go deep into this one. That limits his upside, but with most of the viable options today, $2,500 or so more expensive, just keeping pace with those players would be enough.
More importantly for GPPs, he has one of the lowest ownership projections on the slate, creating massive leverage if he’s able to exceed expectations.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
One of the reasons I prefer a cheaper second pitching option today is to be able to afford a Boston stack. Their 6.1-run implied total is well ahead of every other team on the slate; plus, I like getting the correlation between Boston hitters and Tanner Houck for GPPs.
Boston has a winnable matchup with Luis Medina ($6,000) of Oakland, who has a 4.37 ERA but xFIP and SIERA numbers well above 5.00. Fenway Park is also the second-best hitter-friendly park in baseball, with weather that boosts scoring by about 15% predicted tonight.
They’re also on the stronger side of their platoon splits against the right-handed Medina, so everything is pointing up for them. Getting some Boston exposure is a priority, with the full stack the ideal way to go.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jon Singleton 1B ($3,200) Houston Astros vs. Miami Marlins (Roddery Munoz)
The Astros are taking on Marlins rookie Rodder Munoz ($6,500) tonight, with a five-run implied total. Munoz has absolutely dreadful numbers against lefties this year, as I noticed in PlateIQ:
While it’s not a massive sample size, there’s clearly something there with a bit over 90 lefties faced this season. He’s allowed 10 home runs for a ridiculous .741 slugging percentage in those at-bats.
Unfortunately, Houston doesn’t have a ton of left-handed hitters, but Singleton is a solid option. He’s hitting .257 with a .736 OPS against righties this year, not bad relative to his price.
JP Crawford SS ($4,100) Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz)
While I’m interested in playing Kochanowicz today as discussed above, it’s also probably wise to roster some hitters against him if multi-entering. The top choice there is Crawford, who’s leading off the Seattle lineup that’s implied for 4.9 runs.
There’s a non-zero chance Kochanowicz is totally outmatched at the big league level, which would make Crawford a steal today.
Jazz Chisholm OF ($4,500) Miami Marlins at Houston Astros (Jake Bloss)
Since I’m splitting my SP2 exposure between two risky rookies in Bloss and Kochanowicz, I’ll be hedging against those picks by rostering hitters against them in other lineups.
For Miami, that’s dynamic outfielder Jazz Chisholm, who has 18 steals and 11 home runs to go with his .256 batting average. He’s a bit overpriced for his likeliest outcome but could be in line for a big day if Bloss isn’t quite major league ready.
