The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Rece Hinds ($2,300): Third Base/Shortstop, Cincinnati Reds
Rece Hinds’ MLB debut couldn’t have gone any better. The former second-round pick made his first-ever appearance on Monday night, leading his Cincinnati Reds to a convincing win over the Colorado Avalanche. With Cal Quantrill toeing the rubber for the Rockies on Tuesday, Hinds is poised to replicate that performance.
Hinds immediately endeared himself to his new teammates with his two-hit effort in the series opener. More impressively, both of those hits went for extra bases, including a home run and a double. Although his power metrics are off the charts, Hinds has flashed this kind of power before. He accumulated a .536 slugging percentage in Double-A last year, following that up with 27 extra-base hits in the first half of this year in Triple-A.
There’s not much Cal Quantrill can offer to slow Hinds down. His 4.40 expected ERA puts Quantrill in the 31st percentile, while he’s given up four long fly balls and 10 earned runs across his last 16.1 innings pitched.
With a salary of $2,000, we’re putting our eggs back in the Hinds basket on Tuesday’s main slate. He might not match the 19.0 fantasy points he put up last night, but he should wildly exceed the implied value of his salary. Lock Hinds in as the top value on the board.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($9,300) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Take a look at this sight for sore eyes. Languishing with a sub-optimal record and failing to match the hype from last year’s World Series championship, the Texas Rangers were looking for any sign of life ahead of the All-Star Break. That’s exactly what they got by welcoming Max Scherzer back to the lineup.
In three starts since returning from a nerve injury, Scherzer has been up to his usual antics. The three-time Cy Young winner has allowed just 13 base runners across 16.2 innings pitched, translating that to a paltry 2.70 ERA. Although he has yet to produce the type of strikeout metrics we’ve come to expect from him, he should make significant progress against the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday night.
The Halos have seen a rise in their strikeout metrics over the past couple of weeks, walking back to the dugout 24.6% of the time. Moreover, Scherzer continues to spin some of the nastiest pitches in the bigs. He’s inducing a 33.3% whiff rate on his curveball, jumping to 40.9% off his slider. Further, his chase rate looks even better. Scherzer is getting batters to swing outside the zone on 29.9% of all his offerings.
This salary implies that Scherzer isn’t at the top of his game, which isn’t the case. He remains a top threat from the bump and should have no problem reaching his fantasy ceiling in this AL West showdown.
Hitter
Corey Seager ($5,000) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Arguably, no batter has had a more productive two weeks than Corey Seager. The Rangers shortstop is riding a 13-game hitting streak into tonight’s intra-divisional affair, but it’s his resurgent power that has us most excited about his fantasy prospects against the Angels.
Seager has been on another level lately. Across that 13-game sample, he’s totaled 19 hits, including seven doubles and three home runs. Additionally, the three-time Silver Slugger has six multi-hit efforts over that stretch while averaging 11.0 fantasy points per night. Still operating more than 70 points below his expected slugging percentage, Seager’s run isn’t close to coming to an end.
Roansy Contreras and his ineffective offerings only add to that appeal. The Halos probable starter ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel and hard-hit rates, translating to a mind-numbing .467 expected slugging percentage. The young right-hander does himself no favors by pitching to contact, a characteristic that will lead to his ultimate undoing on Tuesday night.
No one is slowing down Seager, especially Contreras. Seager’s ascent continues on tonight’s main slate, ride him to fantasy glory.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Yusei Kikuchi ($8,200) vs. San Francisco Giants
It’s been a minute since Yusei Kikuchi won a start and even longer since he put together a quality start. Still, we like him to break both of those streaks against the San Francisco Giants tonight.
It’s been nearly a month since Kikuchi’s last win, a triumph over the Milwaukee Brewers on June 11. His last quality start came in the outing before that win, June 6 versus the Baltimore Orioles. However, his run of bad luck is about to come to an end. Kikuchi showed signs of life in his last outing, limiting the Houston Astros to two earned runs across 5.2 innings pitched — a sign of things to come for the southpaw.
Kikuchi’s actual ERA remains above expected, implying that he’s a progression candidate over his coming starts. We’re starting to see the green sprouts of that improved success, with the 33-year-old allowing just nine hits across his last 10.2 innings pitched.
Of course, his fantasy production isn’t tied exclusively to runs, wins, and base runners, with strikeouts playing a more impactful role in fantasy scoring. In that regard, Kikuchi continues to shine. The Japanese National ranks in the 66th percentile in strikeout percentage, equalling a 9.4 K/9 rate.
It helps that the Giants have the tenth-most punchouts versus lefties this season, but Kikuchi also benefits from the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Oracle Park. We’re expecting him to deliver another superb start, this time earning a win for his effort.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Geraldo Perdomo ($3,300) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
We’re taking a pure value approach with one of our final picks. Geraldo Perdomo has been an impactful contributor over the past few games for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Circumstances dictate that that upward trajectory continues in Tuesday’s battle versus the Atlanta Braves.
Perdomo has made modest progress over his last few outings. He’s recorded hits in six of his past seven outings and is toting a modest four-game hitting streak into tonight’s affair. Over those four outings, he’s totaled five hits, four runs, two RBI, and a triple. More importantly, he should have no problems extending that run against Chris Sale.
Perdomo’s best work comes as a right-handed batter. Although we’re looking at a limited sample size, his slugging percentage jumps to .433 versus southpaws compared to .290 off righties. Predictably, that correlates with improved run production, with four of his nine RBI coming in just 30 at-bats.
Arizona’s offense is trending in the right direction, and that depends largely on production from the bottom half of the order. Count Perdomo has one of those secondary contributors who should have another strong outing tonight.
Marcus Semien ($4,800) vs. Los Angeles Angels
We’re concluding today’s rundown with a third player to add to our Texas Rangers stack. While Corey Seager is deservingly receiving most of the limelight, Marcus Semien is adding to his run production. The Rangers leadoff man is the table-setter for the rest of the lineup, and as we’re seeing, everyone is feasting.
Semien’s power metrics might be on the decline, but there’s still lots to like about him. He sits in the 60th percentile in expected batting average, posting a respectable .290 mark. Likewise, his expected slugging percentage is on the cusp of above-average, currently sitting at .411. Still, the two-time All-Star is performing below both of those thresholds, leaving him plenty of opportunities for growth.
We’re seeing that play out over Semien’s recent sample. He’s batting .286 in July, inching his season-long batting average closer to expected levels. Moreover, Semien has safely reached in all but one of those six outings, resulting in six runs over that stretch.
Tonight’s pitching matchup is what pushes Semien over the edge on the main slate. Contreras leaves most of his pitches over the meaty part of the plate, and the Rangers are starting to recapture their World Series flare. Add Semien to the list of Rangers who are expected to deliver top-tier fantasy performances against the Angels.
