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PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the American Express

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Jan 18, 2024

The PGA TOUR travels from Hawaii to La Quinta, California, for the American Express this week. This event is a rare setup that features three courses. Each player of this field of 156 will play one round on each of the Pete Dye Stadium Course (par 72, 7,187 yards, POA overseed greens), PGA West Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course (par 72, 7,147 yards, POA overseed greens) and La Quinta Country Club (par 72, 7,060 yards, POA trivialis greens). There will then be a standard top 65 and ties cut, and those players who advance will play their final round on the Pete Dye Stadium Course.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% — and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for the American Express

Sungjae Im ($10,100)

Im carries the fourth-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models this week and is a stellar starting piece for lineups. The 25-year-old is on the heels of a T5 at the Sentry two weeks ago, in which he gained strokes in every major category and led the star-studded field in birdies converted.

Im very well could have won that event if he didn’t shoot even par during the third round. He has now finished inside the top 15 in five of his last six starts. Im is one of the most well-rounded players in the world, and he ranks fifth in par five performance when we compare this field’s long-term form in our PGA Models, which bodes well for the American Express up next.

For four consecutive years, the winner of this tournament has finished the week top 10 in par five efficiency. Im has finished inside the top 15 in four of his five appearances at this multi-course event and shouldn’t disappoint this week.

Akshay Bhatia ($8,200)

Bhatia is an excellent value at this reasonable price tag, which is only the 20th-highest salary on DraftKings this week. In terms of Perfect% in our PGA Models, the 21-year-old ranks 15^th on the slate, showing you the rising star is certainly too cheap.

Bhatia has never made the cut in two tries at the American Express, but this is honestly irrelevant given his current form. He last competed in this multi-venue event in 2021, when he was the 995th-ranked golfer in the world. Now, Bhatia returns to La Quinta as the 91st-ranked player in the world, which is the highest he has ever ranked.

He just finished T13th at the Sony Open this past week while gaining strokes in every major category. This outing marked his eighth made cut in a row and his fifth top-25 result in his last six starts.

Furthermore, Bhatia has notably shot under par in 20 consecutive rounds, including a 64 in each of his last two starts, which is just one stroke short of his career-low on the PGA TOUR. Bhatia ranks 16^th in SG: Tee-To-Green when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds and is a steal at this price point.

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Stephen Jaeger ($7,900)

Jaeger finished T36th at the American Express last season and should have an even better performance this week. He currently ranks 53 spots higher in the world golf rankings than he did heading into this event last season and is coming off a T18 at the Sony Open last week.

Jaeger gained strokes in every major category during this start, and this finish in Hawaii impressively marked Jaeger’s 18th straight made cut. During this lengthy streak, the 34-year-old has consistently finished high on the leaderboard, with him racking up 12 top-30 finishes.

Ranking eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green long-term form in our PGA Models, Jaeger is a tremendous ball striker who is underpriced for his safety.

In our PGA Models, Jaeger sports the 18^th best Perfect%, but is he only the 24^th most-expensive option on DraftKings.

Erik Van Rooyen ($7,500)

At the Sony Open this past week, Van Rooyen finished T52nd. While this wasn’t the greatest result, there are plenty of things to be encouraged about from the start. This marked his seventh made cut in a row, and Van Rooyen’s ball striking was tremendous at Waialae CC, with him finishing the Sony Open seventh in SG: Tee-To-Green and fourth in SG: Approach. Van Rooyen has now gained strokes on approach in six straight starts, and he had recorded seven top 30s in a row before last week’s trip to Hawaii, including a win at the World Wide Technology Championship in November.

What held him back from contending last week was his poor putting on the Bermuda greens of Waialae CC. Van Rooyen lost 5.4 strokes with his putter, which was the ninth-worst result among the players who made the cut at the Sony Open.

That being said, he gained strokes with his flat stick in three consecutive starts before this, and there is certainly hope Van Rooyen’s putter will be resurrected this week, with him going from the Bermuda greens of Waialae CC, to POA greens for all three of the courses that he will play at the American Express.

Van Rooyen’s putting is statistically at its worst on Bermuda, while conversely, he has gained strokes putting in 13 of his last 20 rounds at courses that present POA greens. Van Rooyen gained 2.7 strokes putting at last year’s American Express – which ranked 13^th in the field – en route to a T6 finish.

The 33-year-old brings similar upside this week if he can find some life with his putter to combine with his elite ball striking, and he is clearly underpriced for his potential.

Van Rooyen’s Perfect% is the 16^th highest in our PGA Models, but he is only the 36^th most expensive golfer on DraftKings.

To put a cherry on top, FantasyLabs is projecting Van Rooyen to only be around 3% owned on DraftKings this week.