With all the Signature Events now behind us, next up on the PGA TOUR schedule is the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Ever since this event was added to the PGA TOUR schedule six years ago, Detroit Golf Club (par 72, 7,370 yards, Bentgrass/POA mix greens) – which was designed by Donald Ross – has been the home of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Four of the five winners of this tournament have shot -23 or better, including Rickie Fowler at -24 last season, who defeated Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa in a playoff. Following the limited field at the Travelers Championship last week, the Rocket Mortgage Classic delivers a full field of 156 players and there will be a normal top-65 and ties cut following the first 36 holes.
The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts
Note: FantasyLabs has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole! Sign up for the biggest database of golf stats available on the internet and get 25% off a yearly sub with our link!
Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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DraftKings $10,000+ Range
Tom Kim ($11,000) – Kim is in incredible form right now and worth paying up for at Detroit Golf Club, where he finished T7 two years ago. Kim lost to Scottie Scheffler in a playoff at the Travelers Championship last week while gaining a career-high 10.4 strokes from tee to green, which was the most among the world-class field at TPC River Highlands. Kim has now made 10 cuts in a row, and he has carded seven top-30 finishes during this stretch, with a T4 at the RBC Canadian Open earlier this month being the most notable finish after his runner-up last week. Kim won his first PGA TOUR title by five shots at another Ross’ design in Sedgefield CC for the 2022 Wyndham Championship, and he has gained strokes on approach and with his putter in three of his past four starts, setting him up perfectly in Detroit Golf Club. This venue is a perfect example of a second-shot course, with three of the five winners at Detroit Golf Club finishing the event top 14 in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting. In our PGA models, Kim boasts the highest Perfect% by a huge margin.
DraftKings $9,000 Range
Taylor Pendrith ($9,600) – Pendrith has been tremendous at Detroit Golf Club, finishing runner-up in 2022 and then T14 last season. In general, the Canadian has been terrific on Ross courses, ranking sixth in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at venues designed by the famous architect via the Bet Sperts Rabbit Hole tool. Including a win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last month, Pendrith has finished inside the top 25 in seven of his past nine starts, and he is a great combination of strong course history and current form to attack.
Stephen Jaeger ($9,400) – Jaeger has finished inside the top 10 at the last two Rocket Mortgage Classics and has the potential to do so again this week. Highlighted by a win at the Houston Open in March, the 35-year-old has recorded eight top-25 finishes in 17 starts this season, and he ranks 16th in par-5 performance for the season. All five of the winners at Detroit Golf Club have finished the event top-five in par-5 efficiency and Jaeger is a core play at this price tag. The veteran ranks fourth in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at Ross’ courses – via the Rabbit Hole – and despite being the seventh most expensive DFS option this week, Jaeger carries the fifth-best odds to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic, at +2500 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
DraftKings $8,000 Range
Aaron Rai ($8,800) – Rai is an awesome spend this week. The 29-year-old finished T9 in his Rocket Mortgage debut last year, and he has tallied four top-25 finishes in his last five solo starts. Rai has been masterful with his irons – he ranks seventh in SG: Approach this season – and shouldn’t disappoint in this type of form as a ball striker. For three straight years, the winner of the Rocket Mortgage Classic has ranked top-10 in SG: Approach during their victories.
Davis Thompson ($8,300) – Thompson is coming off an outstanding T9 finish at the U.S. Open, in which he gained strokes in every major category at the difficult Pinehurst No. 2. Thompson has now finished T27 or better in five of his last eight starts, and he impressively ranks sixth in Total Strokes Gained when we analyze this field’s last 50 rounds. Davis finished T24th at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he is in prime position to finish even higher this time around. Thompson is only the 14th most expensive golfer on DraftKings this week, but he carries the seventh-highest Perfect% in our PGA models.
DraftKings $7,000 Range
Adam Svensson ($7,600) – Svensson makes a ton of sense for cash games this week. He extended his made-cut streak to 11 in a row with a T16 finish at the Travelers Championship last week, in which Svensson gained strokes in every major category at TPC River Highlands. The veteran has finished T24th and T40th at the last Rocket Mortgage Classic and is a very safe choice. On the FanDuel Sportsbook, Svensson is a -240 favorite to make the cut this week.
Matt Wallace ($7,400) – Wallace is one of the best values available for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. After finishing T15th at the KLM Open in the Netherlands last week, the 34-year-old has finished T27th or better in five of the past seven starts. In addition to the convincing form, Wallace has advanced to the weekend at the last three Rocket Mortgage Classics, including a pair of top-12 finishes. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Wallace carries +5500 odds to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic this weekend, which are outstanding odds for a player this cheap. For some perspective, these are better odds than Ryan Fox, who costs $8,200 for DFS purposes.
Cameron Davis ($7,200) – Davis has made 12-of-16 cuts this season and has been dominant at Detroit Golf Club. At the last three editions of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the Australian has finished 1st, T14 and T17, in that order. This isn’t the only success Davis has had at a Ross venue, as he has also finished inside top-25 in all three of his starts at Sedgefield CC. Overall, Davis ranks first in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at Ross courses, via the Rabbit Hole. The 29-year-old was priced all the way up $9,300 on DraftKings for last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic and is no brainer at this cheap salary.
DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range
Ryo Hisatune ($6,900) – While this will be Hisatune’s debut at Detroit Golf Club, the 21-year-old is far too cheap for his upside. Hisatune is fresh off a T35 at the RBC Canadian Open, and during this finish, he ranked ninth in SG: Approach. This marked Hisatune’s fifth finish of T35th or better in his last 10 starts – most notably with a T18 at the PGA Championship – and the promising young talent absolutely shouldn’t have been priced under $7,000 in this weak field.
Troy Merritt ($6,300) – Merritt is an appealing punt play this week that very few will consider. The veteran is coming off a missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open, but for many reasons, we shouldn’t let this be a cause for concern. Merritt missed the weekend by only one stroke that week, and despite being sent home early, he still gained strokes on approach for the eighth time in his last 10 starts. Prior to this mishap, Merritt had made three straight cuts – including a T8 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson – and he finished T17 at Detroit Golf Club last season, despite some extremely poor form of missing 14 cuts in a row before this start, which is a clear testament for his love for this course. Over the last four years, Merritt has finished T8, runner-up, T14, and T17 at Detroit Golf Club, and he ranks first in Total Strokes Gained when we compare this field’s histories at this par 72, via the Rabbit Hole.
Tyler Duncan ($6,000) – Duncan is another player who is very underpriced for his chances of making the cut. The veteran has advanced to the weekend at each of the last four Rocket Mortgage Classics and he has made five of his last seven cuts entering this week, with his most recent start being a T24 at the RBC Canadian Open. Plus, Duncan ranks 16th in 550-600-yard pa-4 efficiency over his last 50 rounds, which is excellent news with Detroit Golf Club up next. Three of the four par 5s at this par 72 fall in this range and all five of the players to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic have finished the week top five in efficiency on the 550-600-yard par fives of Detroit Golf Club.
