Raybon: Ranking Week 17 Games for Best Ball Stacks

In his bestselling book “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People,” late author Stephen Covey instructs readers to “Begin with the end in mind.” Max-entering 150 teams into a best-ball tournament doesn’t always leave time for a whole seven habits or for being much of a person, much less a highly effective one, so let me translate Covey’s quote into best-ball tournament speak: 

“Game stack for Week 17.”

Note: A game stack is defined as a quarterback who has at least one WR or TE on his own team and at least one RB/WR/TE on the opposing team.

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According to Mike Leone of Establish the Run, elite teams were nearly three times more likely to have at least one Week 17 game stack and almost 10 times more likely to have multiple Week 17 game stacks.

The best Week 17 games to stack aren’t simply the ones with the highest over/under. Ranking games by what is essentially the projected 50th percentile outcome only goes so far when, for instance, being the last team standing in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania V equates to finishing in the top 0.00015%. There are only 16 games, and every game has a certain probability of being the highest-scoring of the week. Since we can enter up to 150 teams, ranking Week 17 games is less about scoring upside and more about how well you can leverage a hitting on a given Week 17 game stack to (a) build a team that advances to Week 17 in the first place, and (b) outscores the competition in Week 17. So, in addition to scoring potential, I also consider factors such as:

• Ease of execution: Lower ADPs allow for more flexibility and a lower likelihood of getting sniped and not being able to complete a stack as intended. This is especially true at QB, where a team build can be ruined if you miss out on one or both QBs in a game and have already gone out of your way and sacrificed value to stack. Since you should be stacking every quarterback, not all teams will be salvageable if you miss out on a quarterback late and don’t have enough pass-catcher spots or available players left to stack an alternative.
• Bye weeks: It’s not ideal for the teams you’re game-stacking to share the same bye week. Most game stacks will have 2-4 WRs, which could, at best, restrict your ability to draft optimally later on because you have to fade all players on teams that also have the same bye week as your stack and, at worst, leave you with too few players that week or force you to abandon completing the stack as intended. Stacking teams that share their bye week with as few other teams as possible is preferable. For example, in some weeks, as many as six teams are on bye, so you may have to fade players on 4-5 other teams for the entire draft outside your stack.
• Uniqueness: Self-explanatory. You’re not trying to beat 11 other teams; you’re trying to beat over 600,000 others, so you need to leverage stacking correlations to roster players and combinations of players that don’t appear in many other entries—for example, stacking a QB with his WR3 that typically goes undrafted instead of only including his much more popular WR1 and WR2.

Here are my rankings of Week 17 games from worst to best.

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NFL Week 17 Game Stack Rankings

Note: Lookahead lines via TheLines.com.

16. Raiders at Saints (NO -2, O/U 43)

Every game stack should include a QB, the most highly correlated position to his and the opposing teams. I have zero interest in Derek Carr, who is learning yet another new offense and tends to struggle in Year 1 of a new scheme. I also have zero interest in the Aidan O’Connell/Gardner Minshew carousel.

15. Jets at Bills (BUF -2.5, O/U 45.5)

There are some things to like about this game from a stacking perspective: Buffalo’s top three WRs – Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Khalil Shakir – go off the board in Rounds 7, 9, and 11, respectively. The Jets No. 2 WR, Mike Williams, goes off the board in Round 10, and their presumptive No. 3, Malachi Corley, goes off the board in Round 15. Both teams also have high-upside rookie No. 2 RBs who go outside the top 150 in Braelon Allen (NYJ) and Ray Davis (BUF). 

But there’s a lot more not to like…

• The Jets are one of two teams, along with the Lions, that have two players who go off the board in Round 1. 
• One QB is the most expensive QB on the board, forcing you to pay a premium for rushing upside that you don’t need.
• The other QB is 40 years old, coming off a torn Achilles, and finished higher than QB12 in only 1-of-17 games in his last full season.
• Like Ravens-Texans, Jets-Bills is one of the three Week 17 matchups that share the same bye week. It’s also the only matchup besides Ravens-Texans to share the same bye with four other teams instead of two – including some pretty good offenses in the Bengals, Jaguars, and Falcons.
• These are two of the league’s best defenses playing their second division game in what will likely be bitter cold.

14. Dolphins at Browns (CLE -2, O/U 44.5)

The Dolphins passing offense has to take their talents to Cleveland for a frigid night game on championship week. The career passer rating of Tua Tagovailoa (127) drops from 104.7 pre-December to 85.4 in December-on, and he’s unlikely to reverse the cold-weather narrative against a Browns defense that allowed an NFL-low 164.7 passing yards per game last season. Due to the tough matchup, I’m not looking to roster Tagovailoa unless I end up with Tyreek Hill (3) and Jaylen Waddle (20). Hill will get his no matter what, but this sets up as more of a De’Von Achane (24)/Raheem Mostert (96)/Jaylen Wright (153) affair.

The Browns side of the game stack is shaky as well. Amari Cooper (42) has to deal with Jalen Ramsey. Deshaun Watson (161) might be broken. Nick Chubb (141) should return to form by this point, but fading Tagovailoa stacks decreases Chubb’s usefulness.

13. Chiefs at Steelers (PIT +4, O/U 43)

Per our BetLabs data, Steelers home unders are 26-16 (62%) in December during the Mike Tomlin era, including 11-4 (73%) since 2018.

No Steeler QB has posted a top-five fantasy finish since Ben Roethlisberger in Week 10 of 2020. A Steelers offense led by Russell Wilson or Justin Fields is not likely to change that unless Fields does it with his legs, which is irrelevant as far as game stacks go.

Five members of the Chiefs passing game come off the board between Round 3 and Round 6. If you invested premium draft capital in a Mahomes stack, you should bring it back with a Steeler, but you shouldn’t be happy about it.

12. Chargers at Patriots (NE +2.5, O/U 41)

This is the lowest total on the slate (bad), but that makes it all the more likely to be the least popular game stack of Week 17 (good). Everyone involved on both sides also happens to be dirt cheap (also good), with only Ladd McConkey (71) and Rhamondre Stevenson (82) getting drafted inside the top 100.

The market is understandably hesitant to invest in either side given the massive regime changes on both sides, but to win big in a contest like this, you’ve got to embrace uncertainty, of which this game contains plenty on both sides: Will Drake Maye be starting by now or will Jacoby Brissett manage to hold him off and once again surprisingly flourish under Alex Van Pelt, as he did with the Browns in 2022? Will the top fantasy pass catcher be a holdover like Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, or Hunter Henry, or will Ja’Lynn Polk or Javon Baker break out as rookies? Will the Patriots be as good defensively without Belichick? How run-heavy will Greg Roman be now that he has an elite pocket passer? How will the Chargers backfield of Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Kimani Vidal shake out? Will the leading receiver be McConkey as the market expects, or will Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston have something to say? The only thing we know for sure is Herbert is an elite thrower of footballs, and his pass catchers can be had at Pick No. 71 (McConkey), 104 (Palmer), and 149 (Johnston).

11. Colts at Giants (NYG +2, O/U 43.5)

This game may go under the radar, especially since it takes place outdoors at Metlife instead of indoors at Lucas Oil. Still, both of these secondaries could be pretty bad: The projected starting corners are Deonte Banks and Cor’Dale Flott for the Giants and Juju Brents and Jaylon Jones for the Colts. If you can snag Malik Nabers and Michael Pittman Jr. in Rounds 2-3, all the other pass catchers go outside the top 100. Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones have durability concerns, making Jones the better play given he goes in Round 16 while Richardson goes in Round 5. 

10. Cowboys at Eagles (PHI -2, O/U 47)

This is the third-highest over/under, so it will be chalky, but there’s not a lot to get excited about, given the cost, restrictions, and potential pitfalls involved. For instance, it’s virtually impossible to stack both teams’ WR1s because CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown go off the board in Round 1. This is the second-most expensive QB game, and the only other game besides Ravens-Texans where one of the QBs can’t be had outside the top 100. Lamb goes top-three, and another Cowboy doesn’t go until Brandin Cooks at 85th overall, which means Brown-DeVonta Smith–Jalen Hurts will be extremely popular.

If I stack this game, the key guy for me is Jalen Tolbert. He is slated to take over Michael Gallup’s former starting role, which became a platoon between him and Tolbert as last season wore on. Tolbert’s ADP is 207, and he often goes undrafted.

9. Ravens at Texans (HOU +1.5, O/U 46)

I love me some C.J. Stroud and some Tank Dell, but man, this game stack is among the chalkiest, most expensive, most restrictive, and most difficult-to-execute game stacks on the board. 

• This is the only game stack in which both QBs go off the board in the first six rounds. Every other game has at least one QB available in Round 9 or later.
• Houston’s top three pass-catchers and Baltimore’s top-two pass catchers (plus Jackson and Derrick Henry) all go off the board in the top 50 picks.
• Stacking even two Texans pass catchers and bringing it back with Henry is almost impossible, with Collins, Henry, Diggs, and Dell all going off the board in a 17-pick span between 18th and 34th overall.
• QBs like Jackson are overpriced when it comes to game stacking because you’re paying for rushing upside that isn’t as useful in a stacking context since it would take away from Baltimore pass catchers and because using a naked QB as a bring-back with the opposing passing game isn’t ideal, either, since you ideally want your QBs to be from different games to maximize your chances of hitting on the day’s top stack. Even if you wanted to go Naked Lamar, this stack makes it about as negative-EV as possible, given that you’d be taking two QBs in the first six rounds, plus a third QB because…
• …this is one of only three matchups in which both teams have the same bye week. To make matters worse, four other teams, along with Baltimore and Houston, are on bye in Week 14. This, combined with the premium draft capital required, makes this the most restrictive stack on the board.

If I’m stacking this game, I want to use guys like Dalton Schultz, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, and Devontez Walker for some cost-effective differentiation.

8. Lions at 49ers (SF -4.5, O/U 49.5)

This game stands out as the highest total on the board, but it’s not ideal for stacking. Five players have ADPs in Rounds 1-2 – Christian McCaffrey (1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (6), Jahmyr Gibbs (12), Brandon Aiyuk (17), and Deebo Samuel (22) – with Sam LaPorta (35) making it six before the end of Round 3.

• If you’re lucky enough to get the No. 1 overall pick and draft McCaffrey, you’re restricted as far as your options for using him as a bring-back in Lions passing game stacks. St. Brown will be long gone by the Round 2-3 turn, which means you have to reach a round early for Sam LaPorta in Round 3 and/or a round early for Jameson Williams in Round 7 before nabbing Jared Goff at the Round 10-11 turn. Reaching by a round is no biggie, but reaching just to end up with chalk kills much of the appeal.
• It’s also difficult to get Samuel and Aiyuk on the same team—it’s typically going to be one or the other.
• Stacking Amon-Ra St. Brown in Round 1 with Sam LaPorta in Round 3 basically forces you to draft Aiyuk or Samuel in Round 2 because if you miss out on them, your only bring-back option would be George Kittle (67) – but then you run into the issue of using two of your first 5-6 picks on TEs, which could work if things break perfectly, but is almost always suboptimal. By this point, the 49ers WR3 is not likely to be fantasy-relevant, whether it’s Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall.
• Pearsall is likely to be the most popular cheap WR in this game stack by far, but an interesting flier I’ve taken in a few drafts is Kalif Raymond, who appears to be the favorite for Detroit’s WR3 role. Raymond posted a stat line of 82/1,105/13.5/1 over the past two seasons while running a route on 44% of team dropbacks.

7. Packers at Vikings (MIN +2, O/U 45.5)

The Vikings are strong at linebacker and safety and weak at corner, so for Week 17 game-stacking purposes, I would prioritize Romeo Doubs (105) over Jayden Reed (55) to stack with Jordan Love (98). Doubs is a better value than Christian Watson (74) and Dontayvion Wicks (122). Watson has the most raw athletic talent of the group, but for Week 17 game-stacking purposes, I would instead go with Jordan Addison (66) or Aaron Jones (81) as bring-back options in his range.

Justin Jefferson posted 1/15/0 and 5/59/0 stat lines in his last two games against Jaire Alexander, so there’s no need to fade this game stack if you don’t land Jefferson in Round 1. I’m not a fan of taking players who will miss a chunk of the season, but T.J. Hockenson (148) makes sense for Week 17 game-stacking purposes. 

If you want to get super contrarian, consider stacking Viking pass catchers with Sam Darnold instead of J.J. McCarthy. One would think McCarthy would be getting a look at this time of year even if he starts the season on the bench, but it’s possible the Vikings view Darnold as a Kirk Cousins light and would stick with him for the entire season if they are in playoff contention. Darnold has looked competent with a solid supporting cast.

6. Seahawks at Bears (CHI -3.5, O/U 45.5)

Unless you’re picking near the Round 1-2 turn, DJ Moore at 28 and Keenan Allen at 54 should be easy enough to stack with Caleb Williams at 112 – all while leaving room to bring it back with Kenneth Walker III at 69, Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 77 plus Tyler Lockett at 99. If you’re near the Round 2-3 turn, adding in D.K. Metcalf at 26 is also an option.

Cole Kmet should benefit from the coverage drawn away by Moore, Allen, and Odunze. He is a cheap insurance policy in Round 12-13 if you miss out on one of the Bears WRs early. Speaking of insurance policies, if you get sniped on Williams, you can pivot to Geno Smith at 169 without missing a beat.

5. Panthers at Buccaneers (TB -4.5, O/U 43.5)

I like the chances of Bryce Young (190) to follow in the footsteps of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, who revived their careers under the tutelage of new Panthers head coach Dave Canales. Young is basically free in most drafts, and the Panthers top three pass catchers – Diontae Johnson (73), Xavier Legette (137), and Adam Thielen (157) – have an average ADP of 122, which is ahead of only the Patriots (151), Broncos (148), and Giants (131). A contrarian, cost-effective stack of Young with Johnson and either Legette or Thielen is one of my favorites of 2024. 

From a game-stacking perspective, Johnson and Jonathon Brooks (86) are the only Panthers with a top-100 ADP, making it easy to game-stack Mike Evans (29), Chris Godwin (59), and/or Rachaad White (63) in the earlier rounds. Based on ADP, I prefer Young to Baker Mayfield (168), who could take a step back without Canales.

The one drawback of this game stack is that both teams have a Week 11 bye, though they share that bye with only two other teams (Cardinals and Giants). 

4. Broncos at Bengals (CIN -7.5, O/U 45.5)

This game is intriguing. Despite being third in implied points (26.5), the Bengals may be an overlooked stack because the Broncos are a solid defense with no sexy bring-back options. But Denver’s implied point total speaks to the fact that not many stacks equal the upside of Joe Burrow-Chase-Tee Higgins. And even without Chase in tow, there’s a case for a Burrow-Higgins stack, as CB Patrick Surtain II is more capable than most at forcing a target or two away from Chase. Despite Chase going inside the top five and Higgins going inside the top 40, Broncos-Bengals has the third-lowest combined ADP for top-three pass-catchers.

The Broncos are the only team without a player with an ADP in the first seven rounds, presenting a low-risk, high-reward opportunity to game-stack them with a Bengals squad projected for a top-three score on the week. With an ADP of 91, Courtland Sutton is the only Bronco going inside the top 100, but they may be hard to draft along with Burrow since their ADPs are only three slots apart.

However, the better option may be Troy Franklin, who is a good bet to have taken over the WR2 role by this point in the season. The Bengals may have a hole at CB2 if 2023 second-round pick D.J. Turner II doesn’t make a Year 2 leap after posting a 48.4 PFF coverage grade (111th of 126 qualified CBs) last season. Marvin Mims is also a high-upside option and a Year 2 leap candidate.

If I draft Chase and/or Higgins but miss out on Burrow, I do not hesitate to draft Zack Moss in the same range instead and then take a flier on Bo Nix. Moss has Joe Mixon-like upside in this offense, and Nix should have a firm grasp on the starting job by this point in the season.

3. Falcons at Commanders (WAS +2, O/U 46)

The Commanders were last in pass-defense DVOA last season and lost their two best defensive backs, Kendall Fuller and Kamren Curl, so this is a spot to stack Drake London and Kyle Pitts with Kirk Cousins. Darnell Mooney and even Rondale Moore are in play late, as well.

The drop-off from A.J. Terrell to the Falcons’ other corners is enormous, so I’m not forcing it with Terry McLaurin as a bring-back. Jahan Dotson, Luke McCaffrey, and even Austin Ekeler all go well outside the top 100. They all make sense as passing-game bring-backs. McLaurin is a lot more important to roster with Jayden Daniels, who likely won’t hit his ceiling as a passer without a strong year from his No. 1 receiver.

2. Titans at Jaguars (JAX -4, O/U 46)

The Titans revamped their perimeter defense under new defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson, adding cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie. However, their safeties and linebackers are still exploitable in coverage over the middle, so I’m targeting a stack of Christian Kirk at 43 and Evan Engram at 78 with Trevor Lawerence at 118. From a Week 17 perspective, it isn’t ideal for Brian Thomas Jr. or Gabe Davis, but Davis is the quintessential best-ball WR and is cheap enough at 132nd overall to be included in any stack without a second thought.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are strong over the middle after adding safety Darnell Savage. Still, they have question marks at corner with 30-year-old Ronald Darby and 2023 fifth-round pick Antonio Johnson flanking up-and-down CB1 Tyson Campbell. New Titans offensive coordinator Brian Callahan should employ a more modern, pass-heavy offense featuring a high rate of 11 personnel featuring Calvin Ridley (56) and DeAndre Hopkins (70) on the outside with Tyler Boyd (199) in the slot. The offensive line is still an issue, but the arrival of Callahan and a talented skill-position group give Will Levis (180) a sneaky upside this season. Levis-Ridley-Hopkins is one of my favorite stacks for Week 17 purposes.

1. Cardinals at Rams (LAR -5.5, O/U 48.5)

The Rams are tied with the 49ers for Week 17’s highest implied point total (27.0). I like stacking the Rams passing game. Puka Nacua goes late in Round 1, and if you get him, ensuring you also get Cooper Kupp by drafting him a round early isn’t much of a reach. Matthew Stafford is super cheap. And Demarcus Robinson is one of the most undervalued WRs on the board. Robinson posted top-25 finishes in 5-of-6 games in which he played over 50% of the snaps. Robinson is an easy late-round bring-back option for Cardinals stacks. And if you’re attempting a Cardinals stack but miss out on Murray, Stafford-Robinson is a pretty easy pivot, with Stafford typically lasting until Round 13 and Robinson until Round 15.

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