We’re about one month out from the 2024 NFL Draft. Here’s my three-round vision of how the puzzle pieces are currently falling. In terms of pick volume, this is a step back from my previous version that went six rounds deep, but I’ll make up for that here with some written insights behind each first-round pick and select picks in rounds two and three.
2024 NFL Mock Draft: First-Round Picks & Predictions (3.0)
Round 1
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (QB – USC)
I wish there was more drama surrounding the first overall pick but Caleb Williams is heading to the Windy City.
2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye (QB – UNC)
I have no idea which QB the Commanders are taking with this pick — nor does anybody outside of the front office. I do buy that it could be Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy. I still lean toward Maye at this juncture. Beyond personally ranking him as the top option of these three (though it’s close and I’m not overwhelmed by any of them), I have a sense there’s some smoke surrounding Daniels’ draft stock and that Washington might chicken out at the thought of putting McCarthy under center right away. (Marcus Mariota cannot start in 2024.)
3. New England Patriots: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – Ohio State)
I am adamant this is what New England should do with this pick. Their current offensive personnel is so far removed from the league’s best that it would not be conducive to a young quarterback’s success to drop him in there. Adding Marvin Harrison Jr. would change that ecosystem overnight and position the Patriots to field a strong offense as soon as 2024 with Jacoby Brissett capably under center.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Malik Nabers (WR – LSU)
It might be disappointing for the Cardinals to get sniped by one pick for Marvin Harrison Jr. There’s enough of the “teams have Harrison and Nabers ranked similarly” narrative going around for me to buy into its validity. Also, as ridiculous as it sounds, I wouldn’t be shocked if Arizona sees Michael Wilson‘s skill set closer to Harrison’s than that of any other wide receiver on their roster to Nabers’.
5. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy (QB – Michigan) *TRADE ALERT*
- Chargers Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (5th Overall)
- Vikings Trade: 2024 Round 1 Picks (11th and 23rd Overall), 2025 Round 3 Pick
The most obvious trade in NFL mock draft history goes down and the Vikings take the QB prospect everyone expects them to take.
6. New York Giants: Rome Odunze (WR – Washington)
As much as the Giants should be considered round-one QB buyers — more on that later — I don’t know that Jayden Daniels is their type. That might not matter anyway with a truly elite WR prospect like Rome Odunze still on the board for them.
7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt (OT – Notre Dame)
The Titans should submit the card for this pick within 10 seconds if Joe Alt makes it to pick seven.
8. Las Vegas Raiders: Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU) *TRADE ALERT*
- Falcons Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (8th Overall)
- Raiders Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (13th Overall), 2024 Round 2 Pick (44th Overall), 2025 Round 2 Pick
And there goes Jayden Daniels, finally. I have confidence one of the ‘Big 4′ QB prospects will “fall” — one does every year, without fail, and 2024 won’t be any different despite what everyone is saying. Daniels’ lack of testing coupled with his older age (compared to his peers) is a weird combination and, even putting that aside, there are some parallels here to Justin Fields‘ slide to pick 11 in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Antonio Pierce, who led Daniels’ recruitment to Arizona State, shouldn’t let Daniels fall as far as Fields, though. We should also take a step back and acknowledge how much of a net win this would still be for Daniels, considering how low his stock was heading into the 2023 college football season.
9. Chicago Bears: Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – LSU)
Increasingly of the view that #Bears just sit at Pick 9 and gladly take the WR4. Talk themselves into the OL being good enough and D being good enough post-Montez Sweat trade. More than that, Darnell Wright was not the consensus OT2 last year, they didn’t care, turned out well.
— PJ Moran (@PJonDraft) March 26, 2024
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers (TE – Georgia)
Would this be the smart pick for the Jets? I don’t know, probably not. But I don’t feel good about them taking a sixth offensive lineman for stability purposes with the 10th overall pick either. Brock Bowers is at least unique enough to earn targets right away from Aaron Rodgers, who notoriously despises throwing to rookies.
11. Los Angeles Chargers: JC Latham (OT – Alabama) *TRADE ALERT*
- Vikings Trade: 2024 Round 1 Picks (11th and 23rd Overall), 2025 Round 3 Pick
- Chargers Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (5th Overall)
Acquiring an extra first-round pick is always a good thing. In this case for the Chargers, it makes extra sense with this being a loaded OT class at the top. The Chargers have had a black hole at RT for years. JC Latham seems like an easy fit.
12. Denver Broncos: Olu Fashanu (OT – Penn State)
Denver’s roster is pretty rough in the wake of the Russell Wilson disaster and its fallout. Left tackle isn’t one of their immediately apparent holes with Garrett Bolles still playing solid football. However, he’s expensive and entering the final year of his contract. As desperate as Sean Payton and Broncos fans must be for a return to winning football, this team is playing for 2025. Olu Fashanu can be an above-average blindside protector by then.
13. Atlanta Falcons: Terrion Arnold (CB – Alabama) *TRADE ALERT*
- Raiders Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (13th Overall), 2024 Round 2 Pick (44th Overall), 2025 Round 2 Pick
- Falcons Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (8th Overall)
This pick almost certainly needs to be on the defensive side of the ball for the Falcons. Most mock drafts have them taking the top EDGE player in this slot — and that could be the outcome — but I imagine Atlanta leans coverage over pass rush. The Falcons under Terry Fontenot have taken three extremely young players at skill positions with their top picks. The recently-turned-21-year-old Terrion Arnold would continue that trend.
14. New Orleans Saints: Troy Fautanu (OT – Washington)
I love this team/player pairing and am surprised I haven’t seen more of it. Troy Fautanu is like the magnified version of what Andrus Peat was as a prospect years ago. The Saints loved him enough to keep him around at an expensive rate for nearly a decade. Fautanu should be much better.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Adonai Mitchell (WR – Texas)
This one is a wild card, especially with some major prospects still on the board, but I’m calling my shot. I’m letting a bit of personal evaluation slip into this objective exercise; I am wildly high on Adonai Mitchell’s game. But all bias aside, Mitchell fits the bill of legendary athleticism the Colts draft for. His dynamic skill set would nicely complement Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Indianapolis has some other roster weaknesses but they should not stop prioritizing surrounding Anthony Richardson with as much talent as possible.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Quinyon Mitchell (CB – Toledo)
The Seahawks went over 15 years before taking a first-round cornerback last year. I have them double dipping at the position. It makes sense. Devon Witherspoon looks awesome and Mike Macdonald is coming from Baltimore where DBs are treated as premium positions. Quinyon Mitchell just happens to rock, too.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dallas Turner (EDGE – Alabama)
I’m not sure if Dallas Turner will fall this far come Draft Day but a sub-250 pound EDGE without massive production might not be every team’s cup of tea, similar to Nolan Smith last year. Trent Baalke, however, would salivate over Turner’s speed/length combination.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Byron Murphy (DT – Texas)
This one is common in mock drafts, and for good reason. Byron Murphy would be a plug-and-play starter in the middle of Cincinnati’s defense.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse (EDGE – Florida State)
This is another frequent pairing. Jared Verse’s power across from Byron Young‘s burst would give the Rams an awesome EDGE duo and keep their pass rush afloat following Aaron Donald’s retirement.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyler Guyton (OT – Oklahoma)
Tyler Guyton going before other OTs like Taliese Fuaga or Amarius Mims might be a surprise but Pittsburgh favors extremely athletic linemen. See last year’s Broderick Jones selection. They cannot afford to get another round one pick wrong. Mims is an all-time unique prospect but there’s a scenario where he barely plays as a pro. Guyton, a great RT prospect in his own right, splits the difference and kicks Jones over to his preferred LT spot.
21. Miami Dolphins: Laiatu Latu (EDGE – UCLA)
The Dolphins have experience with ultra-skilled yet medically flagged EDGE prospects; they took Jaelen Phillips in round one under very similar circumstances. That has turned out well for Miami. With Phillips (unrelated injury) and Bradley Chubb recovering from major injuries heading into this upcoming season, Laiatu Latu would step in immediately as the Dolphins’ top pass rusher.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Taliese Fuaga (OT – Oregon State)
The Eagles will not allow their offensive line to fall off its pedestal under any circumstances, so they should aim to do better than Tyler Steen at RG. Taliese Fuaga is an ass-kicker who might be better suited at guard than his college position of tackle anyway, though he’d be more than capable of filling in for Lane Johnson at RT.
23. Los Angeles Chargers: Ladd McConkey (WR – Georgia) *TRADE ALERT*
- Vikings Trade: 2024 Round 1 Picks (11th and 23rd Overall), 2025 Round 3 Pick
- Chargers Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (5th Overall)
Believe the Ladd McConkey hype. He deserves it. McConkey only gets open on tape and his athletic testing was marvelous; this is a round one wideout. He reminds me a bit of Zay Flowers, who new Chargers GM Joe Hortiz had a role in drafting for the Ravens last year.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Amarius Mims (OT – Georgia)
The Cowboys like to take big swings in the first round. Amarius Mims would be the literal biggest swing they can take this year. If he pans out, Dallas could have two superstars holding down the left side of its line for the next decade in Mims and Tyler Smith.
25. Green Bay Packers: Chop Robinson (EDGE – Penn State)
The EDGE position might not jump off Green Bay’s depth chart as its biggest need, especially after they took Lukas Van Ness in the first round last year. But, the Packers don’t have many glaring needs and Van Ness plays a different position than Chop Robinson. The Packers have done well enough with roster-building that they can afford this major upside dice roll on a pass rusher with Robinson’s explosion. If he hits his potential, this is the type of pick that could push a team over the hump in January.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jackson Powers-Johnson (OC – Oregon)
The Bucs replace Ryan Jensen with a dude who plays center like Ryan Jensen. Easy enough.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Jer’Zhan Newton (DT – Illinois)
Arizona’s defense plays hard enough but is generally so lifeless right now. They need a spark and Jer’Zhan Newton at his best is way better than prospects who typically go in this range.
28. New York Giants: Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington) *TRADE ALERT*
- Bills Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (28th Overall), 2024 Round 5 Pick (144th Overall)
- Giants Trade: 2024 Round 2 Pick (47th Overall), 2024 Round 3 Pick (70th Overall), 2025 Round 3 Pick
The Giants trade back into the first round to nab their QB of the future; perhaps even their QB of the back half of the 2024 season. I’ve been banging the table for a Giants/Michael Penix Jr. pairing since the start of this process. Now it appears Big Blue’s interest in the Washington southpaw is extremely real:
PRO-DAY UPDATE: Big NFL turnout at @UW_Football pro-day with 30 teams in attendance, including NY Giants HC Brian Daboll & GM Joe Schoen and Seahawks GM John Schneider.
OCs from ???, ???, ??, ???, & ??? and QB coaches from ?? & ??? working out likely first… pic.twitter.com/L5Ul0mMwt7
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) March 28, 2024
29. Detroit Lions: Kingsley Suamataia (OT – BYU)
Kingsley Suamataia isn’t a finished product yet. He played both OT spots in college but he’d have All-Pro potential at guard. Detroit needs another long-term mauler in the middle after losing Jonah Jackson in free agency and Frank Ragnow on the possible brink of retirement.
30. Detroit Lions: Marshawn Kneeland (EDGE – Western Michigan) *TRADE ALERT*
- Ravens Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (30th Overall)
- Lions Trade: 2024 Round 2 Pick (61st Overall), 2024 Round 3 Pick (73rd Overall)
You know the Ravens would relish having four day two picks, just like you know the Lions will play the draft board like it’s Monopoly and take whoever they damn well please. (Earnestly, more teams should approach the draft like this.) Marshawn Kneeland, despite being a small school prospect and not widely considered a round-one guy, is an easy player to love whose excellent athletic testing backed up the idea he could be a hidden gem who’d break out playing in a better defense.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Kris Jenkins (DT – Michigan)
Kris Jenkins would be another first-round surprise but his strength and functional athleticism are well-documented. This just isn’t a very deep interior DL class near the top. The 49ers badly need another key rotational piece at DT, so it might behoove them to take Jenkins here.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Keon Coleman (WR – Florida State)
Keon Coleman’s draft stock has been a yo-yo. At the start of it, he was going in the Top 10 of mock drafts. Then, he ran a 4.61 40 and was declared a second-round lock. He’ll settle more in this range, with Kansas City probably being atop the list of his possible landing spots. The fit makes total sense as he’d perfectly round out a diverse wide receiver trio with Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown.
Round 2
33. Carolina Panthers: Graham Barton (iOL – Duke)
It feels wrong and likely incorrect to leave Graham Barton out of round one. This happens to a deserving prospect or two every single year. The Panthers would surely appreciate it.
34. New England Patriots: Cooper DeJean (DB – Iowa)
Same deal with Cooper DeJean. Though with him, I see a round two outcome slightly more possible due to his injury recovery and middle ground status between cornerback and safety. I have minimal doubts New England would figure out how to best deploy him.
35. Arizona Cardinals: Jordan Morgan (OT – Arizona)
36. Washington Commanders: Christian Haynes (OG – UConn)
37. Los Angeles Chargers: Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB – Alabama)
38. Tennessee Titans: Edgerrin Cooper (LB – Texas A&M)
39. Carolina Panthers: Xavier Worthy (WR – Texas)
Xavier Worthy’s draft stock might be the inverse of Keon Coleman’s. A 4.21 40 will never stop being a talking point but it does feel like we’ve collectively exhaled enough since the combine to remember this range is probably more appropriate for Worthy given the shortcomings in his game.
40. Washington Commanders: Darius Robinson (DL – Missouri)
41. Green Bay Packers: Junior Colson (LB – Michigan)
42. Houston Texans: Nate Wiggins (CB – Clemson)
For anyone paying enough attention, it’s unlikely Nate Wiggins falls this far. It does not resonate well when a prospect sheds so much weight to run faster than he becomes historically slight at the combine (173 pounds) and then puts the weight back on at his Pro Day to convince us he has the speed and the weight. People might point to the 166-pound Emmanuel Forbes going 16th overall last year but that pick is shaping up as a nightmare.
43. Atlanta Falcons: Malachi Corley (WR – Western Kentucky)
44. Atlanta Falcons: Cole Bishop (S – Utah) *TRADE ALERT*
- Raiders Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (13th Overall), 2024 Round 2 Pick (44th Overall), 2025 Round 2 Pick
- Falcons Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (8th Overall)
Cole Bishop as the top safety hasn’t been uttered much but that’s only because this safety class has been misdiagnosed. Bishop is a true junior who pops on Utah tape and tested outrageously well during this process. (It helps the Falcons that he’s a Georgia boy.)
45. New Orleans Saints: Xavier Legette (WR – South Carolina)
46. Indianapolis Colts: Mason McCormick (iOL – South Dakota State)
47. Buffalo Bills: T.J. Tampa (CB – Iowa State) *TRADE ALERT*
- Giants Trade: 2024 Round 2 Pick (47th Overall), 2024 Round 3 Pick (70th Overall), 2025 Round 3 Pick
- Bills Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (28th Overall), 2024 Round 5 Pick (144th Overall)
T.J. Tampa has an outside shot at going in round one, especially to a team that deploys a zone heavy defense. Buffalo trading out of the first round and still landing Tampa would be sweet.
48. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ja’Lynn Polk (WR – Washington)
49. Cincinnati Bengals: Ricky Pearsall (WR – Florida)
50. Philadelphia Eagles: Braden Fiske (DT – Florida State)
51. Pittsburgh Steelers: Sedrick Van Pran (OC – Georgia)
This might elicit “too high” reactions but Sedrick Van Pran is one of those players who fans of every team want in round three but not in round two. Guess what? Those players always end up going in the prior round.
52. Los Angeles Rams: Roman Wilson (WR – Michigan)
53. Philadelphia Eagles: Chris Braswell (EDGE – Alabama)
54. Cleveland Browns: Michael Hall Jr. (DT – Ohia State)
55. Miami Dolphins: Patrick Paul (OT – Houston)
56. Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Brooks (RB – Texas)
57. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jaden Hicks (S – Washington State)
58. Green Bay Packers: Bo Nix (QB – Oregon)
I have Bo Nix tumbling down the board. Indeed, I am not a fan of his game, but that’s not it. What team would draft him before this? Green Bay, famous for saving QBs stuck in the green room, has a bonus second-round pick and no true backup QB. They can be the ones to pull the trigger.
59. Houston Texans: Ruke Orhorhoro (DT – Clemson)
60. Buffalo Bills: Troy Franklin (WR – Oregon)
61. Baltimore Ravens: Mike Sainristil (CB – Michigan) *TRADE ALERT*
- Lions Trade: 2024 Round 2 Pick (61st Overall), 2024 Round 3 Pick (73rd Overall)
- Ravens Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (30th Overall)
62. Baltimore Ravens: Roger Rosengarten (OT – Washington)
63. San Francisco 49ers: Braelon Allen (RB – Wisconsin)
From the same brain trust who recently drafted Trey Sermon and Tyrion Davis-Price on day two of the draft, here I have the 49ers taking another downhill running back on Day 2… and being kind of into it? We know the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree operates with a hive mind. This would be much more like Matt LaFleur taking AJ Dillon with the 62nd overall pick than the 49ers’ previous RB errors.
64. Kansas City Chiefs: Christian Mahogany (OG – Boston College)
Round 3
65. Carolina Panthers: Payton Wilson (LB – NC State)
66. Arizona Cardinals: Trey Benson (RB – Florida State)
67. Washington Commanders: Kiran Amegadjie (OT – Yale)
68. New England Patriots: Blake Fisher (OT – Notre Dame)
69. Los Angeles Chargers: T’Vondre Sweat (NT – Texas)
70. Buffalo Bills: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S – Texas Tech) *TRADE ALERT*
- Giants Trade: 2024 Round 2 Pick (47th Overall), 2024 Round 3 Pick (70th Overall), 2025 Round 3 Pick
- Bills Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (28th Overall), 2024 Round 5 Pick (144th Overall)
71. Arizona Cardinals: Adisa Isaac (EDGE – Penn State)
72. New York Jets: Cooper Beebe (iOL – Kansas State)
73. Baltimore Ravens: Ben Sinnott (TE – Kanas State) *TRADE ALERT*
- Lions Trade: 2024 Round 2 Pick (61st Overall), 2024 Round 3 Pick (73rd Overall)
- Ravens Trade: 2024 Round 1 Pick (30th Overall)
A tight end for Baltimore when they have Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely? In two years, we might be asking how did the Ravens land Ben Sinnott in the third round.
74. Atlanta Falcons: Bralen Trice (EDGE – Washington)
75. New England Patriots: Spencer Rattler (QB – South Carolina) *TRADE ALERT*
- Bears Trade: 2024 Round 3 Pick (75th Overall)
- Patriots Trade: 2024 Round 4 Pick (103rd Overall), 2024 Round 6 Pick (180 Overall)
The Bears get an extra pick since they only own four of them. The Patriots get the big-armed, big-reputation signal-caller from South Carolina. It suddenly feels likely Spencer Rattler will get drafted on day two.
76. Denver Broncos: Theo Johnson (TE – Penn State)
77. Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen McMillan (WR – Washington)
78. Washington Commanders: Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE – Texas)
79. Atlanta Falcons: Jonah Elliss (EDGE – Utah)
80. Cincinnati Bengals: Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB – Missouri)
I haven’t even gotten too deep into Ennis Rakestraw’s tape yet but he feels like potentially the most overhyped prospect in this class. He’s undersized with an injury history and then tested in a mediocre way. I get that he’s a good, feisty player but that’s not a winning formula in the NFL Draft.
81. Seattle Seahawks: Dominick Puni (OG – Kansas)
82. Indianapolis Colts: Max Melton (CB – Rutgers)
83. Los Angeles Rams: Kamari Lassiter (CB – Georgia)
This is a pretty rough placement for a prospect whose tape is much better than this. Cornerbacks who run 4.65 40s cannot go much higher than this.
84. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyler Nubin (S – Minnesota)
The same deal with Kamari Lassiter’s plummet here with Tyler Nubin, who is frequently ranked as the top safety in this class. However, for whatever reason, it feels under the radar that Nubin tested very poorly at his Pro Day.
85. Cleveland Browns: Javon Bullard (S – Georgia)
86. Houston Texans: Malik Mustapha (S – Wake Forest)
87. Dallas Cowboys: Zach Frazier (OC – West Virginia)
88. Green Bay Packers: Javon Foster (OT – Missouri)
89. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brandon Dorlus (DL – Oregon)
90. Arizona Cardinals: Calen Bullock (S – USC)
91. Green Bay Packers: Zak Zinter (OG – Michigan)
92. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cam Hart (CB – Notre Dame)
93. Baltimore Ravens: Beaux Limmer (IOL – Arkansas)
94. San Francisco 49ers: Brenden Rice (WR – USC)
It’s cheeky but the 49ers have to draft Jerry Rice’s son if given the opportunity at this pick, right?
95. Kansas City Chiefs: Kris Abrams-Draine (CB – Missouri)
96. Jacksonville Jaguars: Khyree Jackson (CB – Oregon)
97. Pittsburgh Steelers: Javon Baker (WR – UCF)
98. Cincinnati Bengals: Christian Jones (OT – Texas)
99. Los Angeles Rams: Jaylen Wright (RB – Tennessee)
100. Washington Commanders: Devontez Walker (WR – UNC)
2024 NFL Mock Drafts
Here are a few early predictions for the 2024 NFL Draft. We’ll continue to add our 2024 NFL Mock Drafts leading up to the start of Round 1.
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Thor Nystrom (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Matthew Jones (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Andrew Erickson (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Kent Weyrauch (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Derek Brown (1.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Russell Brown (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: PJ Moran (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Mike Fanelli (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Marco Enriquez (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Dennis Sosic
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Two-Round Writer Collaborative
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 20 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 10 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Early Picks & Predictions
- Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft with Trades: Picks & Predictions
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