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Table of Contents
Since its inception in 2009, bitcoin, the world’s oldest cryptocurrency, has attracted the attention of fans, investors, scammers, and, more recently, both institutional players and regulators.
For many of its acolytes, it’s not just a new form of currency but a groundbreaking technology that introduced the world to the concept of decentralised currencies and established the bedrock for an entirely new type of economy—the cryptocurrency market. For others, it was a way to make a quick buck, and while some of these early investors did manage to join the coterie of bitcoin millionaires, many more lost hundreds or even thousands of dollars trying to predict its price movements.
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Indeed, bitcoin has been the subject of many price predictions, some of them extreme. Notably, Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, predicted that bitcoin could reach an astounding $US1.48 million by 2030, and recently said she believes it will cross the $US1 million dollar mark much earlier. Michael Saylor, the co-founder and chairman of MicroStrategy, recently said he believes bitcoin will reach $US13 million by 2045.
Senior analyst Nicholas Sciberras from Collective Shift points out that this prediction reflects widespread surprise at bitcoin’s meteoric rise.
“It’s difficult to put any price target out there, as the sky could become the limit depending on the level of adoption and external factors in the market,” he says.
Bitcoin has come a long way since its first recorded price of less than a cent. As of July 30, 2024, one bitcoin was worth roughly $US66,700. The idea that bitcoin could one day be worth millions of dollars per coin, as Sciberras points out, “really shows how far we’ve come”.
However, while great highs are possible, so too are catastrophic lows.
Related: Ethereum Price Prediction
Bitcoin's Price History
Bitcoin’s journey started in 2009, with the release of the bitcoin white paper by creator Satoshi Nakamoto. In its early days, BTC was valued at less than a cent.
The early years of bitcoin were marked by steady growth and periods of rapid price appreciation, known as ‘bull runs’. One of the greatest bull runs saw the price of BTC run from $US4,000 to $US69,000 in November, 2021. Over the past 18 months, BTC has risen from $US16,000 to a new all time high of $US73,000.
However, there were also periods of uncertainty, as Sciberras points out.
“During 2014 and 2017 we saw many bitcoin ‘forks’ proposed that split the bitcoin community,” he says. Hard forks are changes to the underlying protocol of the blockchain network that essentially splits a cryptocurrency into two.These forks represented crucial junctures in bitcoin’s history, with various factions in the community attempting to change BTC’s direction. Despite heated debates, and a number of forks, bitcoin has persisted in its current format.
“Bitcoin surviving these attempts to change it is a core contributor to where BTC is now, increasing its confidence and resilience,” Sciberras says.
“It has weathered many storms and attempts to change it, with bitcoin forks now a distant memory, combining for less than 1% of bitcoin’s total market cap.”
In June of 2023, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed plans to start an exchange-traded fund (ETF) specifically for BTC. Multiple other institutions followed suit, with WisdomTree, ARK Invest and others lodging their first application or updating existing applications shortly after BlackRock’s announcement. In January this year, 11 of the ETF applications were approved for trade in the US, pushing the price of bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of over $US73,000. Since their inception, these ETFs have seen some of the largest inflows of any ETF in history, marking them as one of the most successful ETF launches ever.
Another defining feature of bitcoin’s price history is the halving event, which happens roughly every four years, and reduces the rate at which new coins are created. The most recent bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, as the bitcoin blockchain ticked over the 840,000 block. The issuance rate for bitcoin is now down to 3.125 BTC per block, taking bitcoin’s annual inflation well below 1%.
“We’ve seen bitcoin’s price significantly increase a year before the halving and a year after,” Sciberras says.
Many investors view the halving event as one of the most significant factors that affects bitcoin’s price. However, Sciberras is circumspect.
“The jury is still out on how priced-in the halving is, or how important the event is in the grand scheme of bitcoin’s price trajectory,” he says. Since the halving in April, the crypto market has slumped. Many attribute this downturn to the typically low trading volumes during northern hemisphere summer months, when traders often step away from their screens for vacation.
However, despite some wider sell-offs in the crypto market, the price of BTC has remained remarkably strong and is pushing towards the highs of $US70,000 once again. While some investors point to the halving as the source of this strength, Sciberras isn’t so sure.
“There is a theory that the four-year halving event is not as significant as many think and that, instead, its alignment with external liquidity cycles is what makes it appear like a trigger for upward price movement.”
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How Will Bitcoin Perform in the Second Half of 2024?
Bitcoin’s performance for the rest of 2024 depends on a variety of potential bullish and bearish catalysts. Numerous factors, such as institutional adoption, the halving, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic trends will influence the price of bitcoin in 2024.
During 2023, the crypto industry was rocked by a series of enforcements that shook confidence in the sector. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed civil enforcement action against crypto exchange, Binance, and its founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ).
However, in November last year, Binance settled with the US Treasury and Department of Justice (DoJ), with CZ agreeing to step down and hand over the reins as part of the deal.
Sciberras notes that, most importantly Binance was not accused of misusing customer funds and “did not see a bank run on the exchange”.
“This was one of the best outcomes the market could’ve hoped for, and crypto prices rallied as a result,” he says.
“Binance was a massive grey cloud hovering over crypto, and the settlement is a huge green flag heading into 2024.”
Furthermore, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has indicated that the central bank may have reached the peak of its rate hike cycle, which Sciberras thinks could be a catalyst for a bitcoin rally in 2024.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, as of July 30, there is a 95.9% chance that the rates will stay the same at the Fed’s next meeting on July. However, CME Group is forecasting a 97.5% chance of at least one rate cut before the end of the year.
When interest rates stabilise or fall, cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin can offer an attractive place for investors to park capital due to its hedge against the debasement of traditional fiat currencies due to its built in scarcity mechanism—especially now the halving has occurred for the fourth time.
The most recent US consumer price index (CPI) data suggests that inflation is almost under control, with the recent numbers showing a small decrease in the price of goods and services month over month. Sciberras recommends investors keep an eye on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, as Powell has left the door open for further rate rises if it begins to creep back up.
Now that 11 spot bitcoin ETFs have been approved for trade, there have been significant inflows of capital into BTC as the managing institutions gather bitcoin to hold as backing for ETF shares. Since launch in early January, BlackRock’s BTC has seen almost $US20 billion in inflows, with a further $US16.6 billion flowing into the other ETFs.
These capital flows could provide steady buy pressure for BTC as capital continues to flow into the ETFs, potentially driving the price of bitcoin up even higher throughout the year.
What Does the Future Hold for Bitcoin?
When it comes to predicting the future of bitcoin, there are two potential outcomes to consider: the bull and the bear case.
The Bull Case
Sciberras says a bullish future for bitcoin may depend on the sturdiness, or lack thereof, of traditional banking frameworks.
“There are serious issues in the global economy, with the US facing a banking crisis and growing debt obligations,” Sciberras says.
“There were multiple bank failures in 2023, but many forget the underlying problem of these failures still exists.”
If bank failures continue in 2024, the government may be forced to step in to provide stimulus or print more money. This would further devalue the US dollar, similar to what occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic.
“In this scenario, bitcoin’s role as a known, fair and resilient asset with a fixed supply where the rules of the game are not easily changed could become attractive,” Sciberras says.
Sciberras also points to the increased demand for block space on bitcoin’s network due to recent innovations, such as ordinals Sciberras also points to the increased demand for block space on bitcoin’s network due to recent innovations, such as ordinals, BRC-20 tokens and Runes, as positive developments. The higher demand, utility, and fees for miners could help alleviate concerns over bitcoin’s long-term security budget. The growing adoption of the Lightning Network, a layer on bitcoin that enables faster transactions, could result in bitcoin becoming more of a payment method rather than just a store of value.
“If bitcoin can continue making progress and adoption in the payment front, it could increase its overall utility and become more ‘money like’—helping it reach those lofty price targets,” Sciberras adds.
“We are seeing early signs of Lightning adoption. Lightning Network’s total payments grew 1,212% over the past two years. We are also seeing Lightning overcoming distribution hurdles with increased support.”
Further, Sciberras cites the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs as a key factor influencing bitcoin’s price in 2024. It has not only necessitated physical bitcoin purchases—which has lifted prices—but they have also added a considerable air of legitimacy to cryptocurrency more broadly.
“The (approval) could funnel between $US30 billion to $US300 billion into bitcoin,” he says. As of July 2024, the new ETFs have already seen $US36 billion in investor funds funnelled into the world’s largest crypto asset.
Finally, Sciberras cites the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s (FASB) new digital asset reporting rules, set to take effect in December 2024, which will ease rules around the reporting and holding of cryptocurrencies for companies. These new standards remove a significant obstacle for companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheet.
The Bear Case
However, every investment has potential downsides, and bitcoin is no exception. Sciberras says on the negative side of the ledger, there are concerns over bitcoin’s long-term security, given the block reward will continue to decrease.
Additionally, short-term sell pressure could also negatively impact bitcoin’s price.
Then there is the contentious debate about ‘inscriptions’ on the bitcoin blockchain, which are stores of data, such as videos, audio, and text files. While Sciberras acknowledges their potential in generating sustainable fees for the protocol in the long-term, especially as more bitcoins circulate and miner reliance on fees increases, he also notes the divided opinions within the community regarding their impact on the network’s functionality.
Notably, a respected original bitcoin developer, Luke Dashjr, regards inscriptions as spam. He argues that they congest the network, complicating the mining process and the network’s overall support. This difference in perspective sets the stage for a potential ideological clash within the bitcoin community.
Environmental and political fall-outs are another concern—despite the fact it derives its power from renewable sources.
“There are continued attacks on bitcoin’s environmental impacts, with the White House proposing a tax of up to 30% on bitcoin miners in the US,” Sciberras says.
If bitcoin mining operations continue to face pressure from governments globally, it could threaten bitcoin’s price.
“The worst-case scenario is we see Europe try to reintroduce a ban on (proof of work), which was tried in 2022 but was swiftly struck down.”
A swing in sentiment against bitcoin and cryptocurrency by governments could also decrease prices.
“The US is becoming incredibly hostile towards cryptocurrency and bitcoin,” Sciberras says.
Additionally, if bitcoin threatens countries’ monopoly on money due to widespread adoption, governments could move to restrict it—which has already occurred in countries like China.
Sciberras points to a recent bill introduced in the US to expand the Bank Secrecy Act and impose more stringent reporting requirements for digital currency transactions, including those with unhosted wallets, as an area for concern.
“In its current form, this legislation would cripple the US crypto industry,” he says.
The implications of anti-money laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) laws also worry investors. Sciberras singles out the specific challenges of enforcing high reporting requirements on transfers to private, self-hosted wallets.
“AML laws remain a big battleground and could threaten the industry as compliance could be extremely difficult,” Sciberras says.
Is Bitcoin a Worthwhile Investment?
Investing in bitcoin comes with its share of rewards and risks, and understanding these is key to making an informed decision.
Overall, Sciberras is optimistic about bitcoin’s future.
“Looking into 2024 and beyond, I’m personally very long-term bullish on bitcoin,” he says citing the improved economic backdrop, the halving event, the improved development of scalability within the Lightning network, and the BTC ETFs.
However, bitcoin’s future isn’t without potential hurdles.
“If bitcoin continues to be targeted by governments and its energy consumption is further politicised, then it could put pressure on bitcoin’s long-term sustainability,” Sciberras says.
One of the significant long-term concerns for bitcoin is its security in the face of a decreasing block reward.
“If there is lacklustre adoption and demand for bitcoin, or fee revenue is inadequate to incentivise miners to upgrade their hardware and mine new bitcoins, security could decrease and threaten the network,” he says
Bottom Line
While Bitcoin holds considerable potential, it also comes with significant risks. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment goals before diving into the world of Bitcoin. As with all investments, it’s wise to do your own research and, if possible, consult with a financial advisor.
This article is not an endorsement of any particular cryptocurrency, broker or exchange nor does it constitute a recommendation of cryptocurrency or CFDs as an investment class. Cryptocurrency is unregulated in Australia and your capital is at risk. Trading in contracts for difference (CFDs) is riskier than conventional share trading, not suitable for the majority of investors, and includes the potential for partial or total loss of capital. You should always consider whether you can afford to lose your money before deciding to trade in CFDs or cryptocurrency, and seek advice from an authorised financial advisor.
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FAQs
What will bitcoin be worth in 2025?
Predicting the exact price of bitcoin in the future can be challenging due to the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies and the range of catalysts that could make both positive and negative impacts on price.
Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, is a prominent bitcoin bull and believes that the price of Bitcoin could reach as high as $1.48 million by 2030, given the right conditions. If we take that prediction and work backwards, it is conceivable that bitcoin could reach somewhere in the vicinity of $150,000 to $200,000 by 2025, assuming a steady and consistent growth rate.
However, it’s crucial to note that this is merely a prediction, not a guarantee. A range of other potential scenarios could result in bitcoin trading for a much lower price than Wood’s bullish prediction.
Is the bitcoin price going up or down?
Bitcoin’s price has displayed an upward trajectory over the long term, despite short-term volatility. As of July 30, 2024, it’s hovering between $US65,000 and $US70,000. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, factors like institutional adoption and its role as a hedge against the debasement of fiat currencies, like the AUD, continue to drive long-term bullish sentiment.
Is it smart to invest in bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against fiat currency debasement caused by central banks, like the Reserve Bank of Australia, makes it an attractive investment option to many. Given it is decentralised, borderless, secure and scarce, people often refer to it as “digital gold”. Many view it as a smart addition to a diversified portfolio, particularly given concerns about inflation and monetary policy.
However, wise investing requires understanding the technology and market dynamics. Consider how bitcoin aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance, and whether the wide price swings of crypto more broadly are an issue for you.
Is it safe to invest in bitcoin today?
Bitcoin is now widely recognised as a legitimate asset, not a scam or inherently unsafe investment. Where it becomes nefarious is when scammers use the decentralised nature of cryptocurrency, and its potential for gains, to fleece unsuspecting investors.
Like stocks or property, it experiences market volatility, but its growing acceptance by institutions and regulators has increased its stability. While all investments carry risk, bitcoin’s decentralised nature offers unique advantages. As always, responsible investing involves thorough research, understanding your risk tolerance and diversifying your portfolio.
What will $100 of bitcoin be worth in 2030?
Assuming the current price of bitcoin at around $US70,000 as of June 9, 2024, $US100 would buy approximately 0.0014 bitcoin.
If we take Cathie Wood’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $US1.48 million by 2030, then that 0.0014 Bitcoin would be worth around $US2,072. This would be a return of over 2,000% on initial investment.
However, keep in mind that this is a speculative prediction, and actual future values may be significantly different. As with all investments, bitcoin comes with inherent risks, and losing your initial investment is always possible. Be sure to do your own research and possibly consult with a financial advisor before deciding to invest.
How much will bitcoin be worth in 10 years' time?
Forecasts for bitcoin’s future value have ranged widely, with prominent investment figures like Cathie Wood predicting bitcoin could reach an astounding $1.48 million by 2030. Such bullish bitcoin predictions stem from expectations of increased global adoption, technological progress in blockchain, institutional investment and favourable regulatory shifts.
However, as with all investments, it’s essential to recognise the inherent speculation in such long-term predictions. Investors should balance optimistic projections with prudent research and risk assessment. The future of bitcoin’s value remains a hot topic of discussion in the cryptocurrency community, so it’s important to stay updated on the latest bitcoin price predictions and market insights.
How high can bitcoin realistically go?
Predicting how high bitcoin can realistically go is complex due to several influencing factors. Market capitalisation comparisons, such as matching that of gold, suggest it could be valued at several hundred thousand dollars per BTC. The scarcity created by bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins could potentially drive its value as demand increases.
The rate of adoption, regulatory developments, and technological advancements in blockchain also significantly impact bitcoin’s value. Expert predictions vary widely, with figures like Cathie Wood predicting values up to $1.48 million by 2030.
Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as inflation and economic instability could increase interest in bitcoin as an alternative asset, further influencing its price. Given these variables, it remains challenging to determine a definitive price ceiling for bitcoin, and investors should approach with caution.
What is the highest bitcoin has ever reached?
Bitcoin reached its all-time high of nearly $US73,700 on March 14, 2024.
How do I transfer money from bitcoin to a bank account?
Transferring money from bitcoin to a bank account involves converting your bitcoin into fiat currency (e.g., Australian dollars) and then transferring the amount to your bank account. This process typically requires the use of a cryptocurrency exchange platform where you can sell your bitcoin at the current market rate. Once the sale is completed, you can withdraw the fiat currency to your linked bank account. It’s important to consider transaction fees and potential delays depending on the exchange and bank processing times.
Which Australian bank is most crypto-friendly?
Navigating the banking landscape in Australia as a cryptocurrency investor can be challenging, as many major banks have been known to shut down accounts of individuals who invest in cryptocurrencies, citing policy and security concerns.
However, smaller banks and financial institutions may offer more crypto-friendly services, understanding the growing demand for cryptocurrency integration. These entities tend to be more adaptable and open to working with the evolving nature of digital currencies. Nonetheless, the situation is dynamic, and the stance of banks can change. Therefore, it’s advisable to consult directly with banks for their most current policies on cryptocurrencies.
Which coin will boom like bitcoin?
While it is impossible to predict the future, Ethereum (ETH) is a strong contender to see growth similar to bitcoin. The recent approval of spot ETH ETFs in the US is expected to bring significant institutional investment, mirroring bitcoin’s recent trajectory following the January ETF approvals. Ethereum’s position as the largest smart contract platform, its environmentally friendly consensus mechanism and its robust ecosystem of dApps and DeFi protocols are key advantages. However, predicting the next big cryptocurrency is notoriously difficult, so investors should conduct thorough research and proceed with caution.