A Ukrainian air force Su-27.
Wallycacsabre photoOne week into Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the Russian air force has redirected much of its firepower at the Ukrainian invasion corps—lobbing as many as 50 KAB glide bombs every day at the corps’ bases in Sumy Oblast, right across the border from Kursk.
That’s half of the 25-mile-range glide bombs the Russian air force usually drops every day all along the 700-mile front line of Russia’s 29-month wider war on Ukraine.
But Ukraine has an air force, too—and satellite-guided glide bombs with at least as much range and precision as the Russians’ KABs. On Tuesday, the first videos appeared online purporting to depict Ukrainian fighters lobbing American-made Joint Direct Attack Munition glide bombs at targets in Kursk.
The Ukrainian jet reportedly struck a Russian command post in Tetkino, a few miles north of the front line in Kursk. Notably, the raid was apparently conducted by an aging, ex-Soviet Sukhoi Su-27—and not one of Ukraine’s recently-supplied ex-Danish Lockheed Martin F-16s.
While the F-16s are compatible with the JDAM bombs, there’s evidence the Ukrainian air force plans to deploy the nimble fighters for air-defense patrols and not riskier ground attacks—at least initially.
The risk to aircraft around the Kursk salient is significant. The Ukrainian military deployed what one Russian blogger characterized as “a significant amount” of air-defense batteries as well as electronic jammers that can block radio signals and, in some cases, even throw off satellite-guided bombs.
With a big assist from explosive drones, the Ukrainian batteries have shot down several Russian helicopters. Firing back, Russian artillery damaged one Ukrainian Buk air-defense vehicle.
Russian air defenses around Kursk are significant, too. It’s not for no reason that one Ukrainian Su-27 was spotted flying just a few hundred feet over the battlefield after dropping its glide bombs. Pilots from both sides fly as low as possible as often as possible in order to avoid detection by enemy radars.
While both sides have deployed warplanes over the border invasion zone, it’s possible the Russians are deploying more warplanes. There’s evidence of Russian bombing raids targeting both Ukrainian troops on the ground in Kursk as well as their bases back in Sumy.
The only confirmed target of a Ukrainian bomb is that Russian command post in Tetkino. That is to say, it’s not clear the Ukrainians have extended their air power directly over the front line.
This would make sense. Despite escalating Ukrainian drone and missile raids on Russian air bases in and around Kursk, the Russians still have more jets and more bombs. Those 85 F-16s Ukraine’s European allies have pledged are arriving slowly and in small numbers.
It’s possible the Ukrainian air force has just 100 or so warplanes after losing several in Russian attacks on Ukrainian airfields this summer. “The incursion will ... challenge an already stretched Ukrainian armed forces,” explained Hans Petter Midttun, a non-resident fellow at the Center for Defense Strategies.
The approximately 300 jets the Kremlin has deployed for the air war on Ukraine can drop up to 100 glide bombs a day; Ukraine’s own smaller air force likely drops a fraction of that number.
It’s worth noting that, around the same time Su-27s were bombing Russian positions in Kursk, other Ukrainian jets were bombing three Russian-held towns in Kharkiv Oblast around 100 miles southeast of the Kursk salient, according to CDS.
Still, it’s remarkable that, despite a serious disadvantage in jets, bombs and other heavy weaponry, Ukraine hasn’t just invaded Russia—the invasion shows no sign of slowing.
“We are on the offensive,” an unnamed Ukrainian official told Midttun. “The aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses and to destabilize the situation in Russia, as they are unable to protect their own border.”
The Russians aren’t just vulnerable on the ground in Kursk. They’re also vulnerable in the air—as Ukrainian jets join the week-old invasion.
Sources:
1. Clash Report: https://x.com/clashreport/status/1823340857635807323
2. Alex Baxmore: https://x.com/LloydUkrYT/status/1823353679631523852
3. Center for Defense Strategies: https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/russias-war-on-ukraine-130824
4. Hans Petter Midttun: https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/08/13/the-kursk-incursion-logic/