Topline
Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have each been thrust into the spotlight as the running mate picks of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and a new poll released Thursday shows likely voters hold Walz in higher regard than Vance as voters become familiar with both candidates.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is seemingly more favorable than Ohio Sen. JD Vance in early polls, but he ... [+]
Key Facts
A poll from USA Today and Suffolk University on Thursday found Walz is significantly more popular than Vance: 48% of likely voters found Walz favorable and 36% found him unfavorable, compared to 37% who found Vance favorable and 49% who found him unfavorable.
Walz also performed slightly better than Vance in terms of favorability across party lines: 9% of Republican respondents said Walz was favorable, while just 6% of Democrats said Vance was favorable.
The USA Today/Suffolk poll showed both candidates are now equally well-known nearly two months after Vance was announced and about one month after Walz was announced, with just 3% of respondents saying they hadn’t heard of either candidate (the poll was conducted from Aug. 25-28 and had a margin of error of ±3.1 points).
In early polls last month, Walz was also polling higher than Vance, though voters were less familiar with both candidates: An Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll taken Aug. 8-12 that surveyed 1,164 adults and had a margin of error of ±3.8 found 28% didn’t know enough about Vance, and 37% said the same about Walz.
Similarly, a YouGov poll taken Aug. 11-13 among 1,567 adults (with a margin of error of ± 3.3%) found 17% of respondents said “don’t know” when asked about Vance’s favorability and 22% said the same for Walz.
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What To Watch For
How the numbers continue to shift as Walz becomes more of a household name. Before getting the nod from Trump, Vance was a fairly well-known senator, whereas Walz was somewhat lower-profile—though his popularity has continued to rise since he was tagged to be Harris’ second-in-command.
Key Background
In the past, experts have been skeptical of whether vice presidential picks have much influence on an election’s outcome, but with November's race expected to be highly contested, even small boosts from vice presidential picks could be game changers. In the latest FiveThirtyEight averages, Harris had virtually erased the growing lead Trump had on President Joe Biden and is now ahead by nearly three points. Both campaigns have cast their vice presidential picks as politicians who can speak to voters in key midwestern swing states, though Vance is also seen as a Trump loyalist and an appeal to his MAGA base, and some parts of the Democratic base pushed for Walz due to his support for some progressive priorities. Joel Goldstein, professor emeritus at Saint Louis University and an expert on vice presidencies, recently told Minnesota Public Radio that while most people are going to vote on their perception of the presidential candidates, the vice presidential picks provide insight into how they make decisions, which can help voters decide who to support. Running mates can also make differences in their home states, Goldstein said—though in this case, both Minnesota and Ohio are unlikely to be key swing states.
Forbes Valuation
We estimate Vance is worth about $10 million, while Walz has an estimated net worth of just north of $1 million. Vance has made his money on his best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” along with real estate investments that we estimate total about $4 million. Walz, on the other hand, owns no property, stocks or bonds and his wealth is based on his and his wife’s pensions for their work in teaching and government.
