Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by six points among likely voters in the latest survey that shows the Democratic candidate maintaining her lead after Tuesday’s debate—which most voters believe she won.
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris boards Air Force Two as she ... [+]
Key Facts
Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.
Harris led Trump 50% to 45% among likely voters in a Morning Consult poll taken Sept. 11—her biggest lead yet in the pollster’s surveys—and 47% to 42% in a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters that closed Sept. 12 (in late August, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris with a 45%-41% advantage).
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to be plateauing, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that found Harris led Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August, though she still led him by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who say they definitely plan to vote.
Trump led Harris 48%-47% among likely voters in a Times/Siena poll taken Sept. 3-6, equal to the former president’s one-point advantage six weeks ago—marking one of Trump’s first leads by a major pollster since Fox News found him up 50%-49% in early August (the Times/Siena survey had a margin of error of 2.8 points).
Harris was up by two points, 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll, and Harris led Trump by two points in a Sept. 1-3 Economist/YouGov survey, consistent with results from a week earlier (she led Trump by three points in an Aug. 17-20 survey and two points in an Aug. 11-13 poll by the Economist and YouGov).
Harris led Trump 47%-45% if third-party candidates were included or 48%-47% head-to-head in a Wall Street Journal poll released Aug. 29, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% head-to-head edge a month ago (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).
Harris had a 49%-47% edge in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters from Aug. 23-27, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error, as Trump and Harris split independents 45%-45% (the poll—taken Aug. 23-27—allowed respondents to pick third-party candidates, and in a head-to-head race, Harris’ lead shrinks to 49%-48%).
The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points).
A handful of other surveys showed Harris’ lead virtually unchanged since the Democratic National Convention: She led Trump by just one point in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll (compared to a tie shortly after the Republican National Convention, when Biden remained in the race).
Harris leads Trump by a larger margin—48% to 44%—in an Aug. 23-25 Morning Consult survey of registered voters, findings that mirror the group’s Aug. 16-18 survey taken before the Democratic National Convention, which concluded last week in Chicago.
Surveys have broadly shown a shift in Democrats’ favor since Harris’ July entrance into the race: In the leadup to the DNC, Harris had a 51%-48% edge among likely voters according to CBS and YouGov.
News Peg
ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump Tuesday from Philadelphia. Pundits, including former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely considered Harris to be the winner of the debate, as she repeatedly needled Trump, causing him to veer off topic. The majority of voters, 53%, who said they had heard at least something about the debate said Harris won, while 24% said Trump won, and the rest didn’t answer, Reuters/Ipsos found. Far more Democrats (91%) also said Harris won, than the share of Republicans (53%) who said Trump did, according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey.
Big Number
1.7. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 2.6-point lead.
Contra
Trump led Harris in at least eight other polls after Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy. Trump led Harris by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.
Surprising Fact
A Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14 found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads Trump by two points overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey taken Aug. 23-27. Harris leads Trump in six of the seven states, and is tied in Arizona.
Contra
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after a Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the convention. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats held their convention Aug. 19-22 in Chicago.
Further Reading
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump—As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris (Forbes)
Harris’ Lead Over Trump Unchanged After DNC, First Poll Finds (Forbes)
