Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet throws against the Colorado Rockies during the ... [+]
The 2024 Chicago White Sox are a historically terrible baseball team. Entering Tuesday’s games they carried a 26-67 record, ranking dead last in the American League in both runs scored and runs allowed. They’re bad at everything - they’re last in the league in walks drawn and walks given, and are -104 in that category. They’ve hit five - count ‘em five - triples. They do nothing well.
But they do possess some of the most highly sought players on the trade market, which is about heat up in advance of the July 31 deadline. CF Luis Robert, only 26 years old, just might be the most desirable position player available. And in lefty Garrett Crochet and righty Erick Fedde, arguably the two most attractive starting pitchers out there toil for the White Sox.
Think about it - this sorry bunch has a 4.58 team ERA despite the fact those two have made 37 starts and logged 211 2/3 innings with an ERA barely over 3.00. It’s a pretty ugly scene.
There are a bunch of unique factors surrounding both of these hurlers. Crochet was the club’s 1st round pick in the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic-year draft. There haven’t been a lot of success stories in that round, and Crochet didn’t appear to be on his way to being one either. Without logging a minor league inning beforehand, he was wild but effective out of the pen in his 2021 rookie season. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in April 2022, costing him about a season and a half.
The White Sox inserted him in their rotation this spring, and he’s been a revelation from Day One. He leads the major league in strikeouts with 146, and both his K (34.8%) and BB (5.5%) rates are at the elite level. You talk about innings limits for young pitchers......Crochet is way out there in no man’s land, with 105 1/3 innings already in the bank this season after pitching all of 85 frames THE LAST FOUR YEARS COMBINED.
He throws his fastball at an average velocity of 97.0 mph, and he throws it often, well over half of the time. He only throws two of his pitches often enough to receive batted ball-based pitch grades according to my system. His four-seamer is an elite “A+” pitch, with a 96 Adjusted Contact Score and 14.2% whiff rate.
If you read my work here, you already know that the four-seam fastball is the least effective pitch in the game, and that its usage drops every season. You also know that the very best pitchers, the ones who remain great over extended periods of time, have exceptional fastballs.
Crochet’s second most heavily used offering, his cutter, is an “A” grade pitch itself, with a 101 Adjusted Contact Score and 18.8% whiff rate. A lot of the damage Crochet has allowed has been inflicted upon his third pitch, his slider. Improvement on that front would make Crochet even more fearsome. So far this season, he’s posted a 76 ERA- and 56 FIP-. My batted ball-based method gives him a 63 “Tru” ERA-. He’s basically been an average contact manager, with a 97 Adjusted Contact Score. Any club making a play for Crochet needs to value him as the Cy Young contender he is to catch the attention of the Sox. He’s got two years of team control remaining after this season.
Then there’s Fedde. He was the Nationals’ 2014 1st round pick and pitched parts of six seasons for the club before departing for Japan in 2023. He was, to put it mildly, not very good in Washington, logging a 5.41 ERA. He was a grounder generator who struck nobody out, generally allowing more authoritative than average contact across all batted ball types. He only posted a better than league average Adjusted Contact Score once, in the truncated 2020 season. His best “Tru” ERA- was 103 in 2021 - it was 120 or higher in his other seasons.
Well, Fedde learned a thing or two while he was away. His 21.5% K rate basically matches his career high, and his 4.9% BB rate is by far a career best. This greatly improved K/BB profile gives a solid foundation and some newfound margin for error with regard to contact management. And he’s much improved on that front as well.
He’s still getting plenty of grounders (47.3%) but is also running a 5.8% pop up rate, over a full standard deviation above league average. Not too many pitchers post above average grounder and pop up rates, and Fedde is now one of them. It has enabled him to post a 92 Adjusted Contact Score and 88 “Tru”- to date. That’s not quite as good as his 77 ERA- and 84 FIP-, but it’s right in the ballpark.
Stuff-wise, there’s nothing earth-shaking here. Fedde has displayed three average “B” pitches in his sinker (124 Adjusted Contact Score, 7.8% whiff rate), cutter (91, 10.2%) and sweeper (76, 10.1%) and a “C+” changeup (71, 5.2%). But the mix as a whole plays up - he’s inducing the pop ups with the cutter and the grounders with the change.
Fedde’s contract situation isn’t as attractive as Crochet’s ($800K one-year deal), but based on his current performance the righty is still a bargain on his two-year, $15 million deal that runs through next season.
Something else to keep in mind.......wherever a potential trade might take Crochet or Fedde, they’re going to see a massive upgrade in team defense once they get there. The White Sox also rank dead last in virtually every team defensive metric, and the more advanced the measure, the worse they look. Their infield defense in particular is horrific. So both of these guys, who just happen to be posting higher than league average grounder rates, could reach even greater heights elsewhere.
Obviously there are risks attached to both of these hurlers, particularly Crochet. But in this season’s especially unbalanced trade market, where buyers greatly outnumber sellers, and pitching attrition has made reliable starters more valuable than ever, the potential reward carries the day. There’s no telling how bad the White Sox’ major league product might look after the deadline, but it could be worth it if they are able to land multiple future franchise cornerstones in exchange for their prime assets.
