Milwaukee Brewers' Willy Adames (27) talks with Jackson Chourio (11) during the second inning of a ... [+]
The sailing hasn’t been smooth for baseball’s best clubs following the All Star break. The Philadelphia Phillies have totally hit the skids, and the New York Yankees haven’t been much better. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been forced to withstand an ongoing barrage of injuries, while the Baltimore Orioles haven’t been able to separate themselves despite an influx of starting pitching at the trading deadline. Only the Cleveland Guardians among this top tier have been able to win at about the same rate they did in the first half.
You can throw a net over the won-lost records of this group through Monday’s games - the five clubs were literally separated by all of a half game. Meanwhile, there is another club (along with the surging Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, whose stories will be told on another day) who is creeping up from behind, poised to join this group - though they now have lost their last three games. The Milwaukee Brewers, who cut bait on ace starter Corbin Burnes before the season began and seemed set to rebuild, have ridden the wave of their young, exciting nucleus to a 67-52 record and a 7 1/2 game lead in the NL Central. As things stand, that’s the largest divisional lead in the game.
Over the last couple of weeks I’ve covered the MVP and Cy Young races in both leagues. In my NL Cy Young and MVP race reviews only one name of a Milwaukee Brewer was uttered, and that was starting pitcher Freddy Peralta, standing a distant 10th in the Cy race. Outfielder Christian Yelich was off to a great start, but his season has been short-circuited by a back injury. How on earth is the Brew Crew getting it done?
Well, their other two best position players are barely outside my NL MVP ballot at present, with C William Contreras (13.9 “Tru” Batting Runs Above Average) and SS Willy Adames (12.8 TPRAA) standing 11th and 13th. Contreras, 26. was basically stolen from the Braves before the 2023 season when the Crew inserted themselves into a deal between Atlanta and Oakland involving C Sean Murphy, costing them only OF Esteury Ruiz. He’s under team control for three more seasons after this one. Adames, 28, came over from the Rays at the 2021 trading deadline, and becomes a free agent at the end of this season.
Contreras is an elite ironman for his position, going to the post almost daily. While he’s a bit uneven defensively, he has immense upside with the bat. His fly ball rate has plenty of room to grow - his average launch angle is a mere 5.6 degrees. He drills the ball in the air when he does elevate it, with a 196 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score and 96.4 degree average fly ball exit speed. With a higher fly ball rate he’s a 30-homer guy. Yelich is a good point of reference - he struggled to elevate the ball early in his career, posting comparable average launch angles. Then he raised his fly ball rates just a bit and voila, MVP award. Now Contreras, as a catcher, is likely to age differently, but there might be an MVP-caliber season or two in there before he does.
Adames isn’t a Gold Glove caliber defender, but he’s average to slightly above average at a premium defensive position. Offensively, he sells out for pull power but often finds it. There is plenty of batting average risk in his game, but he does accept the walks he’s given, softening the blow a bit. He’s at the top of the non-superstar tier of shortstops - durable, power upside at a bat-deficient position, solid if unspectacular glove. Dansby Swanson has been the torch bearer for this type of player in recent seasons, and Adames seems to have moved past him. Someone - probably not the Brewers - is going to pay him big bucks in free agency this winter, and the deal probably won’t look too good at the back end. As usual, the Brewers are getting the best seasons from a core player without incurring the bulk of the financial burden.
And there’s a third position player who’s coming on like gangbusters and could be the key to the club’s fortunes down the stretch - 20-year-old RF Jackson Chourio. Before the season began, the Brewers signed him to an eight-year, $82 million deal that includes team options for 2032-33. On June 1, he was hitting .207-.251-.323 and had looked lost at the plate at times. While big things were still expected for the future, hope for the current season was dwindling.
But then the light went on - ever since, he’s been a .320-.366-.513 hitter, sharply cutting his K rate while hitting for both average and power. Even when he wasn’t hitting, Chourio was offering solid value in other areas like baserunning and defense. Like Contreras, he doesn’t elevate the ball very often, with an average launch angle of 6.2 degrees to date. So all of the references to power upside with an increased fly ball rate also apply to Chourio, and to an even greater extent because of his extreme youth and more favorable positional aging curve.
So the Brewers played for tomorrow and their today is working out much better than expected. Kudos are due to both their front office and manager Pat Murphy, who took over when Craig Counsell bolted the club for greener pastures a couple hours south with the Cubs. The club just started a pretty rough stretch of schedule, but I’m expecting them to navigate it well. We’ll see if this club is built to win in October - in recent years they have struggled - but they deserve tons of credit for being a lock to get there.