Imagine a world with over 75% of the population unemployed. Welcome to the automated economy.
On the bright sideYou're fired!
I’m fired!
We’re all fired!
Imagine a world with over 75% of the population unemployed. Welcome to the automated economy.
On the bright side, instead of getting paid to work, maybe we’ll get paid to read books. That’s one idea from The Lights in the Tunnel.
Side note, I thought the title was a reference to “the light in the tunnel being an oncoming train” which is in some ways accurate. However, he is referencing something completely different.
Written at the height of the financial crisis in 2009, Martin Ford provides a rational and well thought out argument for the implications of an “automated economy”. The premise is machines are going to replace people in a massive number of jobs and across a wide spectrum of skills sooner than later and quickly as well. Before it surprises us, we should rethink how our economy will work with such a dearth of jobs now and be prepared.
I sense that the onset of the automation economy, which I do believe is happening, is similar to what I experienced in digital marketing and the “mobile revolution” over the last 15 years. Obviously this is a much smaller scale event than a global automated economy but there are parallels on how that evolved and how automation and artificial intelligence is evolving today.
In the case mobile marketing, as far back as 2000, I recall industry pundits claiming that accessing the web on a desktop computer was essentially over; everything will be done via the phone. From then on with the start of every New Year the same and newly minted pundits would predict, “This is the year of mobile”. It wasn’t, yet.
Things really heated up with the introduction of smart phones, particularly the iPhone and apps. But, widespread mobile adoption never quiet materialized through the 00’s.
Sure, there was a little more penetration, a little more adoption, a few more features but the desktop web still dominated – until it didn’t. Was it 2010? 2012? 2014? I’m not sure if one could put a fine point on the date or even the year but, while many still will use a desktop machine, the world is now mobile and not going back.
I believe the same thing is inevitable with the automated economy. When will driverless cars and trucks become dominate? When will drones make the majority of home deliveries? When will you 3-D print things vs. go to the store or get them delivered? When will you be examined, diagnosed and treated by a computer?
Next year? Doubtful. In five years? It’s unlikely but possible. In 10-20 years? Very plausible. And at the same time that is happening all kinds of other tasks and jobs will be significantly or fully automated.
This is almost certainly going to radically reshape things and, at the risk of sounding like a Luddite, could eliminate many jobs. In the past, as jobs were eliminated new ones emerged and perhaps this will continue to be the case. However, what if it’s not? Then what?
If you’re not familiar with computers and Artificial Intelligence (AI) read the whole book. If you are more technical and follow AI, skim through chapters 1 (the Tunnel) and 2 (Acceleration) and dive in on page 107 where chapter 3 begins (Danger).
While Ford’s ideas on shifting to an “automated economy” and compensation are radical and seemingly impractical, I do appreciate them. Especially since I do agree we are likely on the cusp of an upheaval that has never been seen before.
On page 235 Ford is particularly prescient with what appears to be happening today (July 2016) in the political arena. The “Brexit” and The “Donald” are two real time examples of his risk analysis with irrational politics happening in real time.
And speaking of politics, Ford lays out some pretty radical socialistic ideas for solutions but acknowledges the resistance and also separates his suggestions from communism. If one keeps an open mind and thinks about it from the context of his predictions being correct they do look interesting and perhaps even attractive, at least on a white board. But they would be very difficult to implement successfully in practice, I suspect.
This is a good book to gain some foundational perspective on that light at the end of the tunnel, which, in my opinion, is indeed a train. An automated train of course.
ps - I recommend Keith Swenson's counterpoint review of the book and thanks to Tom Cunniff for the recommendation!...more
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