2024 Know Your Opponent: Duke Blue Devils

Each Monday this summer, we’re looking at Northwestern football’s opponents for the upcoming 2024 season. This week, we zoom in on the Wildcats’ week two opponent: Duke. The Friday night matchup on September 6 will mark the eighth meeting between the two squads in the last 10 years. After Northwestern wins in 2015 and 2016, Duke has emerged victorious in the past five contests, including wins in each of the past three seasons.

The Basics

Returning Production: 55% overall (53% offense, 57% defense); 88th in FBS

Record: 8-5 (4-4 ACC); defeated Troy in the Birmingham Bowl

Head Coach: Manny Diaz (first season)

The Stats

The following metrics are courtesy of Bill Connelly and ESPN. You can read more about the rankings and theory behind them here.

2024 SP+ Overall: 47th

2024 SP+ Offense: 70th

2024 SP+ Defense: 34th

2023 Capsule

Quarterback Riley Leonard and the Blue Devils got off to a hot start in 2023 with a 28-7 week one defeat of No. 9 Clemson, immediately putting themselves on the national radar. The team began the season 4-0 (including a 38-14 victory against Northwestern) where Duke’s average margin of victory was 28.5 points. After moving up to No. 17 in the poll, the team stumbled with a seven-point loss to No. 11 Notre Dame when they allowed a crushing touchdown with under a minute remaining. Shortly after, Leonard suffered a high-ankle sprain that required offseason surgery. But after a bye week and a dominant victory over NC State, the Blue Devils sat at a comfortable 5-1 at the halfway point in the season.

Leonard, with the nagging ankle, re-aggravated the injury against No. 4 Florida State, a game Duke lost 38-20. A week later, a toe injury against No. 18 Louisville in a 23-0 blowout loss ended Leonard’s injury-laden season. Backup Grayson Loftis led the squad to a 24-21 victory the following week, but the early-season optimism came crashing down after a 47-45 double overtime loss to No. 24 North Carolina and a 30-27 agonizing defeat against 2-8 Virginia dropped Duke to 6-5.

A 30-19 win against Pittsburgh allowed the team to ride some momentum into bowl season, where the Blue Devils took care of business, defeating Troy 17-10 in the Birmingham Bowl. But the bowl win was overshadowed by major shake-ups that occurred just after the win over Pitt. After two seasons in Durham, coach Mike Elko announced he would be taking the open Texas A&M job, rejoining the program he once worked for as a defensive coordinator. Days later, Leonard entered his name into the transfer portal, eventually ending up committing to Notre Dame.

Offensive Overview

Without Leonard at the helm or Kevin Johns calling plays, the offense will look very different this year for the Blue Devils with Jonathan Brewer as the new offensive coordinator. Coming from SMU, Brewer may open up the offense more and could allow Duke to run a more up-tempo and aggressive style.

At the most important position, although both Grayson Loftis and Henry Belin IV saw action in 2023, Texas transfer Maalik Murphy offers the highest upside at the position. A true quarterback competition would not be surprising, but Murphy’s physical traits should allow him to stand out despite the lack of experience in Durham.

Rushing leader Jordan Waters also transferred out of Durham (to NC State), so the main sources of production should be running back Jaquez Moore and 2023 receiving leader Jordan Moore who both had strong finishes to the 2023 campaign. Despite all the changes, the biggest difference may be on the offensive line. After being named to the midseason Joe Moore Award honor roll for the most outstanding offensive line in college football, almost the entire line (headlined by Buccaneers first-round pick Graham Barton) will turn over in 2024.

Defensive Overview

On the defensive end, the switch from Elko to Diaz will be fascinating to track. Both are defense-oriented coaches and Diaz is coming off a ton of success calling the defense for Penn State, but he posted pedestrian numbers in his three seasons as head coach of Miami (FL).

On the defensive line, Duke brings back some experienced players but will need a step up for a unit that finished toward the bottom of the ACC in sacks. Liberty transfer Kendy Charles should help bolster an interior that lost DeWayne Carter, as the former Flame brings 13.5 career sacks and 22.5 career tackles for loss to Durham. At linebacker, Duke returns leading tackler Tre Freeman as well as Nick Morris.

In the secondary, the Blue Devils lost a handful of contributors but maintain a lot of consistency in the back end. Depending on how the depth chart shakes out, it would not be surprising if the entire back end of the defense is composed of upperclassmen, giving Diaz the experience he needs to run his system.

Three Players to Watch

QB Maalik Murphy

After a handful of strong years of relatively stable quarterback play from Riley Leonard, Murphy gives Duke the chance to match that upside. After leaving a crowded Texas quarterback room, the 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman comes with loads of arm talent, making him the highest-ranked quarterback Duke has received a commitment from since ESPN began ranking players in 2006, higher than the likes of Leonard and Daniel Jones.

Murphy hasn’t played much, but impressed against BYU and had mixed results against Kansas State. He will be surrounded by less talent than when he was with the Longhorns, but his rocket launcher of an arm should open up the field for the Duke offense. With some offseason improvements to his accuracy and poise, he could immediately be one of the better signal-callers in the conference.

LB Tre Freeman

After posting 106 tackles in 2023, along with a forced fumble and an interception, Freeman will be the center of the Duke defense in 2024. Freeman showed up in a major way in many of Duke’s biggest games last season, including a 13-tackle performance against Notre Dame and a 14-tackle, one-sack game against ranked North Carolina. His season earned him Second-Team All-ACC honors. Under Manny Diaz, Freeman could take another leap in his junior year.

WR Jordan Moore

Following a 62-catch, 835-yard, eight-touchdown season, Moore earned a Second-Team All-ACC selection and posted career highs in all three categories. The 6-foot receiver isn’t physically imposing but wins with his shiftiness in routes and ability to find open space. Over the final five games of the regular season, Moore averaged 89 yards per game and caught five touchdowns. He seems poised to be the focal point of the offense in 2024 and could be due for his first 1,000-yard season.