What Are the Indicators for China's Stock Market?

It's rare for an economy to grow as fast as China's has since the 1980s when it first began to build a unique hybrid state that allows a free market economy to operate within a communist system. It is now the world's second-largest economy, after that of the United States.

Although its projected growth for 2024 has slowed to a mere 4.2%, and the economy has faced economic issues since the pandemic, as well as stymied growth, China is still very much on the radar of investors worldwide.

Those who want to follow the Chinese stock market and economy can track many indexes from stock markets in Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Taiwan.

They can find useful information about the state of the Chinese economy from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Or, they can check the numbers released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), though some say those numbers are highly suspect.

Below we discuss some of the key indicators to pay attention to when evaluating the Chinese stock market and resources from which to obtain information on the markets.

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is the benchmark stock market index for the Hong Kong financial world and is widely followed as a proxy for the Asian markets in general.

It is a weighted index of the largest companies that trade on the Hong Kong Exchange, covering approximately 65% of its total market capitalization.

This index is thus a benchmark for blue-chip stocks and reflects the performance of the leaders of the Hong Kong exchange. The HSI securities are separated into four sectors: finance, utilities, properties, and commerce and industry sub-indexes.

The Hang Seng Index was created in 1969. It is published by a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hang Seng Bank.

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSE)

The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index, often called the SSI Index, tracks all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It is a weighted index calculated from a base period of 100.

Launched on July 15, 1991, the index has a reputation for volatility, but its performance, like China's growth, has calmed in recent years.

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (CSI300)

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index is designed to replicate the performance of the top 300 stocks traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and is weighted for market capitalization. As such, it is seen as a blue-chip index for mainland Chinese stocks.

The CSI 300 is considered the blue-chip index for mainland China stock exchanges, as it tracks both the Shanghai and the Shenzhen markets.

Introduced in 2005, the index is managed by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., which maintains over 7,000 indexes in 16 countries and regions around the world.

SZSE Composite Index

The Shenzhen Exchange is one of three stock exchanges operating in mainland China, the others being in Beijing and Shanghai. The SZSE Composite Index is the main market index of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

It may be less well known outside China than the others, but Shenzhen is one of the largest stock markets in the world by market capitalization. Its listings are dominated by the stocks of companies that are controlled by the government.

Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index

The Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index is an indicator comprised of stocks traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE), weighted for market capitalization.

The index covers all of the listed stocks excluding preferred stocks, full-delivery stocks, and newly listed stocks. The highest-weighted stocks naturally have the most significant effect on the reading of the entire index.

This index was first published in 1967.

National Bureau of Statistics of China

Analysts attempting to track China’s economy routinely study figures released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The NBS is responsible for the collection, investigation, research, and publication of statistics about China's economy. The NBS measures gross domestic product (GDP) through three sectors: agriculture, construction, and manufacturing and services.

It may be wise to take these numbers with a grain of salt. The Diplomat, a current affairs magazine for the Asia-Pacific region, states flatly that the Chinese government's GDP numbers are inflated.

All of the statistics compiled by the bureau are published on its website, including monthly, quarterly, and annual data.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international nonprofit group that provides a monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for China’s economy, designed to provide indications about the nation's economic growth.

The OECD also publishes data specific to China on a wide range of topics including agriculture, development, economy, education, energy, environment, finance, government, health, innovation and technology, jobs, and society.

Evaluation of China's Stock Market

It is crucial to note that China's stock markets do not operate in a vacuum. As they operate in China, which operates with state control, the Chinese government's relationships with its own businesses and with the United States can change at any time.

The Chinese government is waging a regulatory crackdown on its own companies, particularly on its Internet companies. These include anti-monopoly measures that could affect the growth of companies like Alibaba as well as data privacy measures that could crush the growth of all of its Internet companies. The privacy measures are aimed at preventing personal data from being transferred abroad.

Due to the decline in China's economy, experts believe the country needs significant structural changes to stem the economic bleeding. Particular areas that need to be addressed include the real estate sector, the country's large debt load, and a decline in exports.

The Bottom Line

China's breakneck growth has slowed but it is still impressive. Its GDP growth in 2024 is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to be 4.2%, compared to 1.5% for the U.S.

Concerns about investing in China remain, particularly around its lack of openness and the state's control over all aspects of the economy, which could change regulations at any time and leave foreign investors in the lurch.

A more recent concern is China's slowing economy, which has seen significant declines in growth rates, which have been declining steadily since 2007.

All of the above is enough to give any investor second thoughts about dabbling in the Chinese stock market, but it may not be enough to dissuade them from a more indirect approach, such as investing in an ETF or mutual fund that tracks China's business successes.