Newsletter Excerpt, August 8, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 5"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

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2. Chicago Cubs (57-60, .487, 20th in MLB)

This is the flip side of my Guardians pick, allowing my preseason call to drive the decision to keep the Cubs in playoff position. This one is easier to defend; the Cubs are closer to a playoff spot than the Guardians are to falling out of one.

Jed Hoyer tried to have it both ways at the deadline, adding Isaac Paredes to upgrade third base while shuffling the bullpen -- Mark Leiter Jr. out, Nate Pearson in. The Cubs are a bit better for the moves, if nothing else because of the defensive upgrade at the hot corner. It’s a bit disappointing that they didn’t do more given the holes in their lineup and the general weakness of the teams chasing playoff berths in the NL.

Pretty much everything I wrote about the Cubs in a long piece in June holds. The starting pitching has held up as everything else has collapsed. The bullpen, actually, has been much better than it was those first two months, and as more Cubs pitchers get healthy, projects as a top-ten pen the rest of the way. Since July 1, Cubs relievers have the lowest ERA (1.77) and FIP (2.77) in baseball. With the upgraded defense, I have the Cubs as one of the strongest run-prevention teams in baseball over the last 50 games, and that’s the case for them making the playoffs.

Will they score enough? Man, I don’t know any more. They have three lineup holes no matter who plays, and though they’ve been better in high-leverage spots -- .255/.338/.422, a 111 OPS+ -- they’re just 16-23 in one-run games. Again, this is something that should correct a bit, but is hardly guaranteed to do so. The Cubs have a soft August slate -- right now, they play one team above .500 the rest of the month  -- that provides a launching pad. If they’re not in playoff position on Labor Day, it will be a wasted opportunity.

Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: The Cubs are slugging .382. Just once since offensive levels jumped in 1993 have they had a lower slugging percentage, .378 in 2012.

Who Plays Where Now? Paredes has been the everyday third baseman and Cody Bellinger the everyday DH over the last week. The Cubs have one of the most stable lineups in baseball now, with Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly locked in center field. Bellinger still can’t throw; when his broken finger heals well enough, he could move out to center with Mike Tauchman getting some additional playing time.

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 7, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 4"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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8. Baltimore Orioles (67-47, .588, fourth in MLB)

It was a disappointing trade deadline for the Orioles. They had the young talent to go out and add to their starting rotation, but instead added bulk. In overpaying for a #5 starter in Trevor Rogers, they made one of the worst decisions at the deadline. Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby may have had no path to playing time in Baltimore, fine. It’s just hard to believe that package wouldn’t have returned more value. Were the Tigers’ return for Jack Flaherty or the White Sox’s return for Erick Fedde that much better?

The failure to meaningfully add to the rotation looms larger a week later, after Grayson Rodriguez was unable to make his Tuesday start after experiencing pain in his shoulder. We’re still waiting on the results of imaging, but stealing from Will Carroll’s excellent Under the Knife newsletter...

If it’s the upper lat as indicated, this would be like a 2022 injury that Rodriguez had. He also missed time this year with a minor shoulder inflammation that resolved well, but could be related.

That was a Grade II lat strain and he missed three months, though Rodriguez was a hot prospect at the time and was handled very conservatively. If this is a lesser grade strain combined with a more aggressive rehab, Rodriguez could be back in a matter of weeks, giving him plenty of time to be “normal”. It could even end up like his last IL stint, which was just over the minimum. The key here is the grading and exactly where in the muscle (and which muscle - there is some question on that.)

The Orioles are unlikely to fall out of a playoff berth even if Rodriguez misses a month. Albert Suarez stepped in strongly last night and remains a solid #6/swingman. The bigger issue would be if Rodriguez didn’t make it back for the playoffs, especially if the O’s have to play the extra playoff series. Burnes/Rodriguez/Eflin/Suarez and Burnes/Eflin/Suarez/Kremer are two very different playoff rotations, especially since Corbin Burnes is unlikely to be used on three days’ rest.

The team’s trade for Eloy Jimenez didn’t make much sense, either, especially given it cost Heston Kjerstad his roster spot. The Orioles, who added Austin Slater as well, seem determined to keep Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, and even Jackson Holliday from seeing left-handed pitching. I’m not sure that’s the best baseball decision, as none have huge platoon splits. I am certain it’s a terrible developmental decision. Kjerstad was second on the Orioles in OBP; it’s hard to justify cutting that kind of player.

This is a front office I think highly of, but it has made some very curious choices over the last few weeks, parallel to the Yankees getting better. 

Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: Jackson Holliday started his MLB career 2-for-34. Since being recalled on July 31, he’s hitting .400/.478/.900. Only Brandon Hyde can shut him down.

Who Plays Where Now? Craig Kimbrel’s last four appearances have all had a Leverage Index of less than .20, which is more or less how you’d use me if I wandered into your bullpen. The Orioles become the fifth straight team to acquire Kimbrel as a closer and move him to low-leverage relief in less than a year.

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 5, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt .3"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The number in front of every team’s name is their preseason ranking in this space, which is also the order in which the Third Third capsules run.

Record and rank are through Sunday, August 4.

 

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18. Cleveland Guardians (67-44, .604, first in MLB)

[record scratch]

Yeah, I know. The team with the best record in baseball on August 4 missing the playoffs? The Guardians are 4 1/2 games up on the Twins in the Central, 7 1/2 up on the Red Sox for any playoff spot, ten up on the Rays, a team I effectively have beating them out.

I’ve been on this corner for a while, going on VSIN in July and even then -- when the Guardians had just edged into that “best record in baseball” status -- offering them up as the division leader most likely to miss the tournament. 

There are a few things happening here. One, “best record in baseball” doesn’t mean what it usually does. The top tier of MLB teams is far weaker than it’s been since the mid-2010s, with no team on pace to win 100 games after at least three teams reached that mark in every full season since 2017. Second, the Guardians are no more a .600 team than I’m a linebacker. Per Clay Davenport’s third-order record, which looks at underlying performance and strength of schedule, the Guardians are the most overachieving team in the game, closer to a .500 team (56-55) than a .600 one.

The Guardians didn’t do much at the trade deadline. Lane Thomas is a good player best used in a fourth outfielder/platoon role, definitely stretched in center field. Batting him second everyday is a mistake, as even in his last few breakout seasons he’s had a sub-.300 OBP against right-handed pitchers. Thomas is a better player than Will Brennan, I’m just not sure that how he’s going to be used helps the Guardians much.

The Guardians didn’t add quality or bulk to their starting rotation, leaving them with a two-man rotation of Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams. After that, Ben Lively, Carlos Carrasco, and current wheel spin Joey Cantillo are filler, looking to the offense to save them. Triston McKenzie has a 5.09 ERA and an 18% walk rate in five Triple-A starts. Logan Allen comes back tonight; he had a 5.67 ERA and a 5.45 FIP in 18 starts. There are just going to be a lot of nights when the Guardians’ starter puts a game out of reach, effectively neutering the team’s terrific bullpen.

That’s the obvious stuff. The less obvious problem is that an offense we spent three months praising has gone back to being the Cleveland Guardians. The team is 13th in wRC+ for the season at 102, but the wheels are coming off; just three teams have hit worse since the start of July. Mind you, the team’s numbers to date have been compiled against the second-worst schedule in baseball, one that gets rougher starting now. The Guardians, who split with the Orioles over the weekend, don’t see another team that’s out of contention until September 9, and they play 26 of their next 32 games against teams above .500.

This is, admittedly, a flag plant, but it’s one in which I believe. It is possible that the offense and starting pitchers turn over just enough leads to the bullpen -- the best in the game -- for the Guardians to avoid a collapse. They need maybe 22 wins to lock up a playoff berth, so even .400 ball from here on in would get them across the line. I just see so much collapse risk here that I’m comfortable saying they won’t get there.

(Let me stick this in here to hopefully stave off some angry emails. If anything, I am biased towards the Guardians. Keith Woolner, with whom I worked at BP when we were building it, has been an executive with the Guardians for 20 years. There aren’t a dozen people on the planet I respect more, and Woolner becoming the latest Prospectus alum to get an inappropriately large ring would make me very happy.)

Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: Guardians relievers have allowed a .199 batting average, giving them a chance to be just the fifth team to give up a sub-.200 average out of the pen, and the first since the 1989 A’s.

Who Plays Where Now? Lane Thomas has started three games in right field, two in center, with Jhonkensy Noel and Tyler Freeman looking like the odd men out so far, and Angel Martinez keeping most of his playing time.

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 3, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 2"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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The number in front of every team’s name is their preseason ranking in this space, which is also the order in which the Third Third capsules run.

Record and rank are through Friday, August 2. 

 

15. Boston Red Sox (58-50, .537, tenth in MLB)

The Red Sox added Danny Jansen, who turned out to be one of the best position players to switch teams at the deadline. Jansen bumped Reese McGuire off the roster to give the Sox one of the best catching situations, with Connor Wong, in the majors. 

Avi P. checks in...

One more comment on the Danny Jansen trade. Connor Wong can play second base, which has been a real problem area for the Red Sox.

He can, in the sense that he has, but he’s played 20 innings there in four years, plus a couple of games at Worcester. I don’t think he's an option outside of some weird intra-game maneuvering, which is how he’s gotten all his run there. I don’t think I’d ever start him there over David Hamilton or Romy Gonzalez. Jamie Westbrook has ejected himself from the conversation, as expected, and I know nothing about Nick Sogard. 

The Sox also added two relievers in Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims, and starter James Paxton, all for prospects that Baseball America had outside the game’s top 500 and outside the top 30 dealt at the deadline. With their starting rotation deteriorating, Alex Cora leaned on his pen, which collapsed to a 4.85 ERA and 4.40 FIP in June and July. The reinforcements aren’t great, but they will help, and Paxton is intriguing in a relief role.

The Sox, of course, were on the other side of that prospect challenge trade with the Pirates. Their infield, 2024 second-base situation aside, is beginning to get crowded. Ceddanne Rafaela and David Hamilton will soon be joined by Marcelo Mayer, so Nick Yorke was already being moved around the diamond a bit. Priester had failed to launch for the Pirates, with a 6.46 ERA in 94 2/3 innings, including 14 starts. Without much of a two-seam fastball, but a curve that misses bats and a changeup that has performed well in limited use, Priester is a candidate for the Red Sox “just throw your best pitches” makeover. He could be the next Nick Pivetta, a deadline pickup who ends up throwing 500 average innings for no money.

Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: The Red Sox are 26th in Statcast’s defensive measurement, Outs Above Average, the lowest of any team that can be considered a contender. It’s the infield -- they’re last in runs prevented (-20) and Outs Above Average (-26). Rafaela, Rafael Devers, Enmanuel Valdez, and Pablo Reyes are all among the 40 worst infielders in baseball by OAA.

Who Plays Where Now? Jansen pushed McGuire out to the parking lot. The bigger surprise was Greg Weissert losing his roster spot to all the imported relievers after becoming a high-leverage guy for much of the summer. Weissert, though, had a 5.96 ERA since the start of June. I expect him to be back in September, maybe sooner.

 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, August 2, 2024 -- "Third Third Previews, Pt. 1"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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26. Los Angeles Angels (47-62, .431, 26th in MLB)

There are some similarities between the Angels and Rockies, with the teams having a similar crop of low-ceiling young players, mediocre pitching, and a terrible free-agent contract for a veteran third baseman on the books. They also share oddly resilient attendance figures in the face of extended poor play. Shohei Ohtani propped up recent Angels crowds, but even without him, and without much else to watch, the Angels are averaging 30,000 tickets sold a game. 

Perry Minasian made one of the stronger deadline trades, flipping 25 innings of Carlos Estevez to the Phillies for one of the best prospects dealt last week, righty George Klassen, and a second pitching prospect in Italian lefty Samuel Aldegheri. Klassen is the kind of power arm the Angels have not been able to develop well. The 2023 draftee had a ton of helium this summer, though in fairness, he was a college pitcher dropped into A ball who put up great numbers against younger competition. Minasian also sent Luis Garcia to the Red Sox for four prospects, none of whom have a high profile. It’s important to consider the “something for nothing” factor; the innings Estevez and Garcia would have thrown for the Angels had no value to them, so trading them for even a collection of lottery tickets -- and Estevez returned more than that -- makes sense.

The big Angels story, though, wasn’t the deadline deals. Mike Trout announced yesterday that he would miss the remainder of the season with a second torn meniscus in his right knee. Trout wasn’t going to lead the Angels back to the playoffs, but he’d have made them both better and more watchable. This will be the third time in four years that Trout doesn’t play in even 100 games (fourth in five counting 2020), and the ninth in a row that he doesn’t play in 150.

Trout, who missed a total of 16 games from 2013 through 2016, missed nearly 500 games over the next eight seasons and played in just 59% of the Angels’ games from 2017 through 2024. His chances to reach major milestones like records for runs or WAR are all gone, and he may be hard-pressed to collect 2500 hits or 500 home runs. His place in baseball history is secure as one of the best ever, but the shape of his career is now warped, fractured. It’s arguable whether he’s even the best player of his era, given the accomplishments of Shohei Ohtani and the ongoing excellence of Mookie Betts.

Trout will return next year at 33, and if the Angels are going to get what they need from him, they have to make the long overdue decision to get him not just out of center field, but off the field entirely. This is the shift Ken Griffey Jr. never accepted, and continuing to play center cost him time and value. Trout, who has resisted a move to left field in the past, has to have the decision taken out of his hands now. His bat is too important to the Angels, even in light decline. 

Mildly Interesting Statistical Nugget: Anthony Rendon is back on the IL with, I don’t know, bad dreams or something. He cannot play in 100 games this year, which will make five straight seasons with the Angels in which he didn’t reach that threshold. If he doesn’t play in 27 more games, it will be the fifth straight season in which he doesn’t even reach 60 games played. (Yes, I’m cheating and including 2020.) For a franchise with an absolutely epic track record of disastrous free-agent signings, Rendon may end up the worst one of all.

Who Plays Where Now? Boy, there sure are a lot of bad teams that kept their best players. The Angels opened the closer role by trading Estevez, which seemed like it created a path for rookie Ben Joyce. Not so fast. The first opportunity went to Garcia, and the next two to Hunter Strickland. I think Don Aase is next up.

 

 

 

 

Newsletter Excerpt, July 31, 2024 -- "Incoherence"

This is a preview of the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter, an e-mail newsletter about all things baseball, featuring analysis and opinion about the game on and off the field from the perspective of the informed outsider.

You can subscribe to the newsletter for one year for $79.95 using your PayPal account or major credit card.

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A trade deadline like the one we just watched upsets us because it’s incoherent. The deals, individually, can be analyzed and explained and even justified. Looked at as a market, though, they don’t make sense. Bill C. wants to understand why his team’s GM didn’t do better than the Blue Jays’ GM did given he had better pitcher on offer with more team control. He reads Miguel Vargas and two A-ball infielders as less valuable than Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss, and Will Wagner. So why didn’t Getz just trade Fedde to the Astros? We want an explanation.

There’s not going to be a satisfying one. As a practical matter, trades aren’t made as in a fantasy league, with someone posting that they have a starting pitcher on offer and they’re looking for draft picks. Some front offices do work better with others, whether it’s because they value players similarly or they have established personal connections. That’s been true for decades. The deadline is dynamic, as every single trade changes the mix of players on offer and the talent teams are looking to add. Each front office is under a different set of pressures from ownership, from fans, from the local media, from its players. Many of them simply aren’t working by the same rules everyone else is, as evidenced by the players in the Rockies/Angels game last night.