Iran's president, the mass butcher Ebrahim Raisi, and Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, known for his attacks on Israel and close connections with Hezbollah, were killed in a helicopter crash on the Azerbaijan-Iran border. Some reporters tried to link Israel and the Mossad to the crash, but despite the fact that Israel is not declaring a " mourning day," this is not Israel's way dealing with state leaders.
In the Iranian governance system, although the main decisions (foreign and domestic) are in the hands of the supreme leader, currently Ali Khamenei, the president also has some central roles, mainly domestic, but not exclusively. Raisi had a very close relations with Khamenei and he was mentioned among the leading candidates to succeed him. His negative attitude towards Israel, along with Amir-Abdollahian, influenced Khamenei's policy.
So, what can we expect now? It is important to remember that on October 7, Khamenei, with Raisi's involvement, activated a "weapon of mass distraction " to enhance his plan to build a "weapon of mass destruction" against Israel. Since then, he has been pushing Israel into a multi-front war.
The death of Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian will undoubtedly cause great turmoil in Iran, but observing the Israeli context, no significant change is expected. Tehran, under Khamenei's guidance, continues to progress toward an independent nuclear capability with each passing day.
The attention given during recent decades to delay the Iranian military-grade enrichment must continue, including the preparations to strike the enrichment facilities and the accumulated enriched uranium. However, the focus must shift to delay the development of the weapons system, targeting the leading nuclear scientists, and weakening the regime.
The death of the president and the foreign minister must give momentum for renewing the internal opposition to the regime, exploiting the temporary chaos and the potential internal power struggles, especially given Khamenei's poor health.
Raisi's death will not change Iran's enrichment of uranium
It is important to understand that Iran is currently where it wanted to be in uranium enrichment (60%), and the transition to the next level (90%) will probably only take place when all other components, including the construction and assembly capabilities of the nuclear warhead, are ready. Transitioning to 90% will not serve Iran now, and the president's death will not change the situation in this area.
Israel must assume that any president and foreign minister chosen will continue the current path, and some may even intensify the nuclear activities and try to persuade the leader to formally promote the advancement of the weapons system, which has not happened so far.
Reports of progress on several areas in the development of the weapons system are increasing, while Iran maintains deniability options, in order to be ready on the day of the leader's approval.
The Mossad must make all efforts, as promised by Mossad chief David Barnea, to strike the components of the weapons system program, including the nuclear scientists and project leaders, despite their intensive involvement in the mission to negotiate the hostage deal with Qatar and others.
Beyond focusing on the weapons system, Israel must address the new enrichment facility built deep underground in Natanz, so that Israel (and the US) will not find themselves facing an attack-proof facility. Currently, there are still ways to damage it before it become operational.
The facility will serve as a hideout for installing the advanced centrifuges for high-level industrial enrichment, allowing the construction of many bombs while transitioning to military-grade enrichment of 90%.
It is clear that Israel's current priorities are the hostages, Gaza and the North, but the overarching goal must remain to prevent the Iranians from exploiting the chaos to reach a nuclear capability, especially now in light of the expected changes in Iran's leadership.
There might have been an expectation of a change in the American approach, but this is an illusion, regardless of Raisy's death. The Biden administration will not attack Iran's nuclear program, and will try to prevent Israel from doing so in every possible way.
Just last week, talks took place in Oman between the Washington and Tehran to convince Iran to lower the flames against Israel and American forces, and even to reach a new nuclear agreement. Raisi's death is not expected to lead to a change in the American approach, even if the Iranians will intensify their nuclear activities.
The US and Israel must strike together at the head of the octopus and its tentacles. It is time to apply tough financial pressure on the Islamic Republic and not to ease up on them, as the administration has recently done. The US must take advantage of the expected chaos in Iran and aggressively enforce oil sanctions against traders, refineries, and Chinese banks.
It will be a mistake to expect the IAEA and its director (who does not hide his goal of being elected as UN Secretary-General) to take any action against the ongoing Iranian nuclear violations. As usual, ahead of the Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, we will see American groveling and a push to avoid any sanctions or even issuing a report pointing out the ongoing Iranian violations, in line with European demands. America's ultimate goal is to reach the November elections without confrontations.
The White House behaves as if Iran, Hamas, and the Palestinian Authority are separate challenges. Sullivan's recent visit to Israel and the messages he conveyed indicate the depth of the administration mistakes. Raisi's death and the absurd decisions of the International Criminal Court in issuing arrest warrants against the prime minister and the defense minister can provide the US with a ladder to change their behavior.
Israel has no choice but to confront the Iranian threats on all fronts and it cannot allow Tehran to encircle it with a "ring of fire." The time has come to take off the gloves and be ready to go on offense against Iran and the Palestinian Authority, which initiated the appeal to the ICC.
The PA is part of the problem and not the solution. It would be better for Israel to confront those threats together with its best ally, the US, but the Jewish state must also be prepared to face them alone.
Brig.-Gen. (Res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a professor at the Technion. He served as the national security advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and as the acting head of the National Security Council.